Are we really good cappers?

[Doctor Baseball]

Probably this thread will finish at the general forum but I need to ask this after a weird sunday (last) and saturday (yesterday), here I go, but first a little background and then MY facts. When we decide our picks some people look at trends, recent matchup, "sports knowledge", line movements, etc etc, at the end it als comes to a 50-50 situation. Luck works almost everytime and almost on all games, here are y last pro and college picks:


On Sunday
2nd Half
Titans +2
Atlanta/Minn over 24
Bills +1

I remember I told a friend after the Miami touchdown on the third qtr that at that moment I was losing my 3 bets, and almost everything points to a losing day for me, at the 4rd qt my bills was almost a lock (and the other 2 also, but for my casino). Giants went for the 2 pt conversation and they didnt make it, they were on 1 and goal and they made a field goal, then titans score twice and they made the 2 pt conversations, if any single of that last 3 options go the other way bye bye money, the went to OT and they won and I cover by 1. The Titans play made me a good capper? the Giants play made the other ones bad cappers?. The Atlanta game were a heartbraker for all the vikings backers, the total at that time were 20 so a fg made my over a loser, but then SIR MICHAEL VICK run for 48 yards and my bet was a winner, bettiing the over was a smart thing? Want more???? ok on SNF I played No and Over 40, TB score a TD on 4th and goal, they didnt throw the fg and my bet was a winner, again HANDICCAPING SKILLS?? On MNF a blocked fg cost me a 3 teams parlay (2 qtr over 15 and Raiders and over 10 3rd qtr) a bad capping decision:shrug: also that fg cost me the over 48. Today I bet georgia 2nd half -3.5 and the line went to -4 does the -3.5 backers are gods and the -4 or +4 regular people??? My last play was a 3 teams parlay Oklahoma -3.5 and over 23.5 and Hawaii over 63.5 (I guess that game will hit the over sooner or later) a missed fg and a missed 2pt conversion made me a loser, maybe if Oklahoma throw the Fg on the last minute my parlay could be a winnah.
My point is, how many of the games we pick to win won becauseof our skills and how many because of luck, are we really bad or good cappers or are we only lucky?

I`ll be waiting for your comments, feel free to respond whatever you think. JL

 

[ndnfan]

Jessy.......like you stated, many games are decided by circumstances beyond our handicapping control(just plain luck or unluck). Some may disagree with this number, but there's times when I feel upwards of half of all the games that I cap result in factors that throw your handicapping out the window. These games you can only hope to hit 50% in the long haul.

That being said, it's the other 50% of the games that allow you to get an edge and to show a nice profit and respectable win % over time.

Now if a sports bettor begins to understand what I said above, you'll begin to understand how important money management and discipline are in the sports betting world.

Good luck to you this weekend!

-ndnfan

 

[THE KOD]

Jessy

with your present record you must be one lucky ****.

Scott-Atlanta

 

[GM]

I don't think I could state it any better than ndnfan did...agree completely. Lots of games come down to pure luck...but not all of them. Hopefully the good breaks and the bad breaks even out in the end (even though we usually only remember all the times we got screwed on bad breaks, and conveniently "forget" all the lucky things that went our way).

On the other half the games, hopefully hard work gives you the edge to win significantly more than you lose. Still, even the sharpest capper can go 0-5 or 0-8 on any particular day if the cards don't fall right. So that's where money management is so important. Manage your $$ well and you will still be in the game when the day comes along that everything goes your way.

 

[Doctor Baseball]

I have to agree with both of you, I know that MG is very important, but my point (Im not saying that neither of you get it) was that no matter how much time you invest on your selections or how do you pick one team at the end it all comes down to a 50-50 and then is when MG becomes important. Personally I just pick one game on sunday to give it to the forum ( but I play more of course) and almost always its an over, why? because when I pick a game I want that my game beat the spread big, and I always try to give the over that I think will beat the spread by more points ( my two over lost had been by a combined 8 points) and Im very proud to said that my winners had always been between the 3 games with most combined points. Lets see if I didnt lose my point, what Im trying to said is that by picking an over I try to keep out of teams losing the cover by a late td (SF last week) etc etc, I mean I try to get out of the "luck side". Yesterday Miami, Toledo were just bad luck games and last week on NFL I can said thE same of half of the games. What I want to said to all of you people is that dont feel bad because of a lost and also dont feel like you are the king of the world because of a win. Ok maybe I totally lost you but I hope you get my point. GL JL

 

[Pujo21]

We also forgot to mention The Inadvertant Whistle, There was no flag on the play, There is no refutable evidence to overturn the call on the field.

Ah yes, the good ole zebras and let's not forget that foot outside the plate strike zone.

Ya know we really do need an instant replay in Baseball too.LOL
I can just see the umpires reviewing the plays. LOL
Can't you just see the embarrassment on the umpires faces when the see just how many blown calls they make.

I can hear it now " There is no refutable evidence that the call 3rd strike was bounced before the plate !!!
Can't ya just hear Costas saying as the ump reviews it... Gee it looks like that ball bounced in front of the plate. That looks like a Ball to me.. He should overturn the call.
But the UMP still says yuuuuurrrrrreeeeee outtttaaa dere.
And so on and so on and so on and so is your bet!

Finally, kill the umpire, he's making me look like a handicapping moron.LOL

 

[yyz]

This is not science..........you can handicap your nuts off, be right, and lose.

Who handicapped the Dallas/Laker game correctly the other night?

Ultimately, you will say the Lakers bettors, because they won, but I would disagree. The Mavs and Lakers teams both played the way I figured they would for three quarters. Thre is no way Dallas should have failed to cover 1' points, and no way the Lakers should have been able to pull off that comeback...........but it happened.

I lost my largest play of the season on that game, but I handicapped it correctly!

A loss is a loss, and a win a win, but I would rather lose that game than lose like the nights you are completely wrong in your assessment of the game.

Lusk will always factor into the outcome.

I had some friendly wagers with some people at work on the Miami/VTech game, yesterday.

I had Miami -19, and you all know by now about the dumb-assed trick play on 1st and goal that cost Miami the momentum, and a 35 point lead. (I was hopinh they would lose outright after that 'thug style' play calling!)

How do you handicapp that shit?:shrug:

 

[StevieD]

I have often felt that same thing about our handicapping skills. How many times do we expect our pick to kill the other team yet they squeak by beating the spread by a point. We count that as a win but none of us would of placed the bet if we thought the game was going to be that close.
Then we have problem of bad calls, bone head coaches, and other oddities interfering in games. It was stated here that about 50% of the outcomes are affected by these. That being the case we can only expect to win 50% of those games, or 25% of the total games played. In order to get to a profitable level we would need to be really sharp. Picking 75% winners in those other games will only bring us to 50% overall.

 

[THE KOD]

I lost my largest play of the season on that game, but I handicapped it correctly!

Sounds like yu been throwing it down behind my back yyz. Good luck today.

Scott the annointed

 

[pointspred fred]

Amazing thread.....

Amazing thread.....

I swear, I've wanted to write a post like this forever. Capping is so bizzare. The reason I feel like capping means almost nothing(even though I do my homework anyway) is the huge discrepancy between the supposed "great cappers" every week. Think about it. Just take your top 7 handicappers on this board, who ever you feel they are, and look at their plays every sunday(or every day for that matter) Ususally their plays are very different. YES there are a couple that are the same, but usually there are many different plays. Just this weekend, as I look around the forums, a whole bunch of great cappers LOVE tampa, whereas a whole bunch love Atlanta!!! NOW, if everyone did their homework, and everyone capped this game with all their knowlege and power, how can it be split almost down the middle? About 50% of my favorite cappers are capping this game totally the wrong way? How can such great cappers have sch different opinions on so many games? If we we all so good, it seems like most of the time, 70% of this board would agree on 90% of the games, but it doesnt work that way.

YES there are a million good cappers here, but I'll use Raymond and Thunder for this example because they are both veterans who are respected cappers who I feel really know what they are doing. I notice them being on oppisite sides of many games, yet they both rock at handicapping. How is this possible? If they are both doing their homework, using trends, systems, injuries, hilton plays, weather, physical matchups, coaches, gut feelings etc etc, how on earth do two such great cappers come out on oppisite sides? It happens all the time, with many of the "great cappers" here, and elsewhere. It all seems to come down to a few things.

1. turnovers that are out of our controll

2. refs making lame ass holding calls and other phantom calls

3. the fact that a team can completely dominate a game, and still actually LOSE that game outright.

#3 is a biggy that totally screws my capping up bigtime. I'll have the cheifs -3 playing the titans. The Chiefs will out play, out hustle, and out wit the Titans. The chiefs will have 475 yards of total offence, whereas the Titans will have just over 200. The Chiefs will have 24 first downs and the Titans will have 7, the chiefs will have the ball for 40 of the 60 minutes, and BAM!!! Yes the Titans lose by 2. It happens all the time!!! Anyway, great thread. Capping is a bitch, but I'm addicted so it's time to go put my plays in.

colts
tampa
sea
cinci
kc
mia

 

[yyz]

pf,

One needs to look at the outcome of a game, as opposed to the amount of cappers on it.

In the situation where 50% of your followed players pick one side, and 50% pick the other, the outcome is important. If the game comes real close to the spread, I would say you should expect a 50/50 split. In the games that have a blowout vs the spread, and a 50/50 split......that is another story.

It is extremely rare that any handicapper sees the game unfold the way he wants it too.

 

[SIMON]

YYZ

Hate to say - you did not handicap the Dallas/Laker game correctly. Cause you picked the wrong game.

Stats don't show emotion and heart.
Home field advantage in the NBA is HUGE

Things you missed.
Lakers at home on Friday over the past three years...Look it up

Crowd got into the game...not in the stat sheet

Shaq called out his teammates...not in the stat sheet

Large movement of money on the Mavs...not in the stat sheet

LIVE HOME DOG - Lakers getting points ??? take it all day.

You fell in love with the jump shot...just like the public.

The safe bet was the Mavs....the risk was the Lakers.

BET TO WIN......

I hate the Lakers...But bet them HUGE - and on the ML

 

[yyz]

SIMON,

You can't be that "simple"..............


The only thing missing in your post was, "I knew they would have the second largest comeback in NBA history."

Congrats on having the "moneyline" , and being lucky enough to have had the winner.

 

[Howie]

LOL

nice one yyz.

 

[THE KOD]

yyz did you miss my question to you ?


Scott the miffed

 

[yyz]

Yes, Scott.............I guess i did.:shrug:

 

[THE HITMAN]

I am a bit short on time, but what I would like to add is this: I have been capping for a long time. Maybe even a long, long time as i made my first bet at age 8 (world series bet and it was a W). In my opinion, the last 2-3 years have been the toughest string of years that I can remember as far as predictability goes. Teams that can, dont..........& the ones that can't , seem somehow to keep it close. It just seems like it was alot easier in the olden days. Pro Basketball games have been extremely tough to predict & super bowl entrants come out of nowhere.

One last thought: And bases? One would seriously consider a wager stoppage if one realized how many games are decided by just ONE PITCH.
THE HITMAN

 

[Redfish]

Jessy........I hear you....first part of season everything went my way...past few weeks, I couldn't cap the sun coming up. Got so discouraged threw a 9 team parlay together Monday with absolutely no research and this is the results....but the last game I needed was Arizona and we all saw (or will see) how that game almost ended in disaster for my ticket.

Dec 2 10:11am 9 Team Parlay - Winner 10.00 to win 2942.00 1502.00
1. Football - Cleveland Browns/Jacksonville Jaguars - total Over 41 (-110)
for the entire game held on Dec 8 at 1:00pm [push/cancel]
2. Football - Kansas City Chiefs - spread -3 (+100)
for the entire game held on Dec 8 at 1:00pm [winner]
3. Football - Houston Texans - spread +13? (-110)
for the entire game held on Dec 8 at 1:00pm [winner]
4. Football - Indianapolis Colts/Tennessee Titans - total Over 43 (-110)
for the entire game held on Dec 8 at 1:00pm [winner]
5. Football - New York Giants - spread +3 (-125)
for the entire game held on Dec 8 at 1:00pm [winner]
6. Football - New York Giants/Washington Redskins - total Over 37 (-110)
for the entire game held on Dec 8 at 1:00pm [winner]
7. Football - San Francisco 49ers/Dallas Cowboys - total Over 39? (-110)
for the entire game held on Dec 8 at 1:00pm [winner]
8. Football - Philadelphia Eagles - spread -3? (-110)
for the entire game held on Dec 8 at 4:05pm [winner]
9. Football - Arizona Cardinals - spread -2? (+100)
for the entire game held on Dec 8 at 4:05pm [winner]

 

[redking]

Not a bad parlay Redfish!

However, your post will go against my point. :shrug:

I think we need to post more discussion with our picks. Too many posts here are just four lines with some city and a bunch of numbers. WTF? That doesn't help at all.

I've only been following Senor's plays and he posts his thoughts and angles with every pick. I thought the whole point of having a discussion board on the Internet was to discuss the freaking games?

We're all from different parts of the country and follow different teams. If we all became experts at a few teams and capped those teams each week then we could have a strong, winning consensous. Just a thought. MadJack's has definitely gone downhill since I registered here. Too many "drive-by" posts and posters.

The more discussion aspect as been discussed in the Hockey forum. Please go there and check out the thread. It's a good read and we can all work together to help everyone make money here.