Zona at this number is very tempting, I have watched a lot of Zona and have seen almost nothing of Kansas. Insights welcomed
Arizona -2 over Kansas Thoughts?????
- Thread starter BigMonkey
- Start date
Arizona started at Vegas as a 3.5 favorite and has gone down to only 2 at most books. Amazing IMO as I don't understand the reasoning here when both teams are playing two days after just playing their Sweet Sixteen game, Arizona has greater depth and had an easier time of defeating their Thursday opponent.
Of course I'm the biased one here so you probably should not listen to my opinion but the line looked funny when Kansas played Arizona at home laying 5 points. . . Kansas played probably their best ball of the year in the first half and then lost everything in the second half because they couldn't keep up with Arizona. What has changed since then???
Vegas set out a fairly reasonable line at 3.5 that has been bet down to 2 early. . . guess it depends on which side you want to go with but it is going to be interesting to see which way the line moves from here.
Of course I'm the biased one here so you probably should not listen to my opinion but the line looked funny when Kansas played Arizona at home laying 5 points. . . Kansas played probably their best ball of the year in the first half and then lost everything in the second half because they couldn't keep up with Arizona. What has changed since then???
Vegas set out a fairly reasonable line at 3.5 that has been bet down to 2 early. . . guess it depends on which side you want to go with but it is going to be interesting to see which way the line moves from here.
With Hinrich being less than 100% (sprained wrist in last night's game vs. Duke) the -2 seems kind of low to me. Don't know if I can go against my Jayhawks, but would seem to me this line will go back up a little.
Zona had there scare on the way
Zona had there scare on the way
to the Final Four imo. I watched a lot of Kansas games last year and they had the most talent in the Country I feel and yet mentally lost it vs Maryland. It will back that lack as much as talent issues that will beat them Sat.
Zona -2 [max play for me 1 dime] only game I have played personally all year[coattailed all others] .......gtla
Zona had there scare on the way
to the Final Four imo. I watched a lot of Kansas games last year and they had the most talent in the Country I feel and yet mentally lost it vs Maryland. It will back that lack as much as talent issues that will beat them Sat.
Zona -2 [max play for me 1 dime] only game I have played personally all year[coattailed all others] .......gtla
I hate to jinx
I hate to jinx
I have been in slump but have gone 2-1 with the 3 bets I really liked in tourney and Zona is my fave bet thus far ...
Lutes by 5 or more ...
they outscored KS in Lawrence by 37 (at one point) ... JG finally playing better, Salim only played 18 mins (fouled out), Collison played 40 ... Hinrich 1-9 (if wrist hurt theres big trouble there) and grves will either foul out or die from exhaustion ... If JJ doesnt go 1-11 treys Duke wins ... why everyone is on KS and line dropping is concern if I worried about that crap--but Zona seems like great bet ... one thing about Lute i have learned thru the years, his teams are in great condition ... If KS couldnt beat them with Lafrenz, Pierce and Jacque, Im not sure this edition can get it done with no depth ...
82-70 zona
gl, gregg
I hate to jinx
I have been in slump but have gone 2-1 with the 3 bets I really liked in tourney and Zona is my fave bet thus far ...
Lutes by 5 or more ...
they outscored KS in Lawrence by 37 (at one point) ... JG finally playing better, Salim only played 18 mins (fouled out), Collison played 40 ... Hinrich 1-9 (if wrist hurt theres big trouble there) and grves will either foul out or die from exhaustion ... If JJ doesnt go 1-11 treys Duke wins ... why everyone is on KS and line dropping is concern if I worried about that crap--but Zona seems like great bet ... one thing about Lute i have learned thru the years, his teams are in great condition ... If KS couldnt beat them with Lafrenz, Pierce and Jacque, Im not sure this edition can get it done with no depth ...
82-70 zona
gl, gregg
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Been looking into this game a little more and found that Kansas has been red hot lately on offense shooting the ball over 55% their past 5+ games. Still, their FT shooting is horrid at well under 70%.
No matter what, the style of play that Kansas brings to every game is exactly what Arizona likes to play and the Wildcats are simply better at it over a 40 minute game. Kansas will have their spurts and I assume will scare Arizona at some point. . . but when all is said and done, the deeper team should prevail here.
No matter what, the style of play that Kansas brings to every game is exactly what Arizona likes to play and the Wildcats are simply better at it over a 40 minute game. Kansas will have their spurts and I assume will scare Arizona at some point. . . but when all is said and done, the deeper team should prevail here.
I'd like to jump on Zona -2, but can't pull the trigger yet. Collison played amazingly yesterday. :shrug:
I haven't seen it, but I imagine that the total is somewhere around 160. Instead of trying to pick which team is going to cover a number that seems to be about right, and trying to figure out how revenge, familiarity, etc. are going to factor in, I would say to take the over, grab a cold six pack, sit back and watch the pinball machine roll easily OVER in this one.
Short rest will only increase scoring between these two teams that will run, run, run like they have every time in the last 6-7 years they have met (all going over 160).
It should be a great game, but I think the total is the best way to enjoy it and turn a profit at the same time.
Good Luck
dahounds
Short rest will only increase scoring between these two teams that will run, run, run like they have every time in the last 6-7 years they have met (all going over 160).
It should be a great game, but I think the total is the best way to enjoy it and turn a profit at the same time.
Good Luck
dahounds
Interesting line movement from -3.5 to -2 as VERY early numbers indicate from 75% to 82% of the public on Zona......will keep an eye and update on this......
156
156
smithers, release the hounds ...
i like that too but lost on over in Duke last nite and lose every friggin over anyhow ... coach K held his team back and IMO coached poorly b/c of it .. this should be in 80s but in tourney things get tite so who knows, a 2 minute no score stretch kills a total like this, thats what happned in FH last nite, 5 in first 30 secs, then 2 points in next 2:30
gl, gregg
156
smithers, release the hounds ...
i like that too but lost on over in Duke last nite and lose every friggin over anyhow ... coach K held his team back and IMO coached poorly b/c of it .. this should be in 80s but in tourney things get tite so who knows, a 2 minute no score stretch kills a total like this, thats what happned in FH last nite, 5 in first 30 secs, then 2 points in next 2:30
gl, gregg
Tony, "collison played great"
Tony, "collison played great"
so did the whole Arizona team vs Notre Dame....
just playin with ya....
Tony, "collison played great"
so did the whole Arizona team vs Notre Dame....
just playin with ya....
I had the UNDER last night in the KU/Duke game, and would differentiatel this game in that both teams are going to get more open looks in this AZ game becuase both teams are very legit. inside AND outside threats.
Last night, everyone in the building knew Duke couldn't do it in the paint, and the KU defense focused on the outside, where Duke would get the majority of their points.
Further, Coack KRZYZWZESWZSKZWY said before the game that they were not interested in trying to run the floor with the "RockChalks". In contrast, Zona would be happy to run and gun with any team in the nation.
I thought 160 and I liked it over with that number, I see 154-156 and will be killing it, post haste.
Excellent!
releasedahounds
Last night, everyone in the building knew Duke couldn't do it in the paint, and the KU defense focused on the outside, where Duke would get the majority of their points.
Further, Coack KRZYZWZESWZSKZWY said before the game that they were not interested in trying to run the floor with the "RockChalks". In contrast, Zona would be happy to run and gun with any team in the nation.
I thought 160 and I liked it over with that number, I see 154-156 and will be killing it, post haste.
Excellent!
releasedahounds
Something seems fishy here. I love Kansas, and zona -2 looks like a real good bargain to me. I think they win 8 out 10 matchups. I'm no genius.........a lot of people must be going the same way, yet the number has dropped? Why?
nighthorse,
This was an immediate line drop when the lines first came out. . . not everyone has played this game yet and won't until tomorrow. What will be more interesting is to see if the line comes back up tomorrow or stays about the same. If the line continues to fall then stay far away from this one.
This was an immediate line drop when the lines first came out. . . not everyone has played this game yet and won't until tomorrow. What will be more interesting is to see if the line comes back up tomorrow or stays about the same. If the line continues to fall then stay far away from this one.
Nickle...
Nickle...
do you not play a properly capped game[either side] becuase of line movement in your favor?
Nickle...
do you not play a properly capped game[either side] becuase of line movement in your favor?
Bigmonkey,
Line movement IMO is only something to be cautious of. . . if you like a side for a particular reason, then you should probably go with it. I have played several games this year where the line has gone in my favor (or against my pick, however you want to think of it) but have often taken a unit or two off the play because of it. Sometimes I just let it ride. It all depends on how I've capped the game and how strong the play was in the first place.
In this scenerio, Vegas set the line at 3.5 and the cappers so far have bet it down to 2. This doesn't scare me in the least bit. . . what will be interesting is how the line moves from here till the tip. I assume the public will be on Arizona given what happened in the first matchup between these two and Arizona's success this year. . . the fact they are the #1 seed and Kansas is the #2. . . etc. etc. etc.
If the line actually moves more in my favor and closer to this game being a pk, then I would have to question my play with others as it wouldn't make sense especially if the public is all over Arizona. If the line moves back up to 3.5 or beyond, then this is what I would expect and playing Arizona would be rather easy IMO. If the line stays the same, I would have to question why an even amount of money is on Kansas given the way I have capped the game, but I will still likely play Arizona anyways.
In the end, its only one factor. I thought the line would be Arizona laying 4 or 5 and the line came out at 3.5 which is what I expected. . . I am surprised the line has been bet down early, but that doesn't mean that I'm wrong and those early "wise guys" (or whatever you want to call them) are correct.
Games that I have felt strongly about this year have for the most part been very successful no matter the line move. This is one of those games, but I still want to see what happens up till tomorrow afternoon sometime before I decide how hard I want to hit Arizona.
Line movement IMO is only something to be cautious of. . . if you like a side for a particular reason, then you should probably go with it. I have played several games this year where the line has gone in my favor (or against my pick, however you want to think of it) but have often taken a unit or two off the play because of it. Sometimes I just let it ride. It all depends on how I've capped the game and how strong the play was in the first place.
In this scenerio, Vegas set the line at 3.5 and the cappers so far have bet it down to 2. This doesn't scare me in the least bit. . . what will be interesting is how the line moves from here till the tip. I assume the public will be on Arizona given what happened in the first matchup between these two and Arizona's success this year. . . the fact they are the #1 seed and Kansas is the #2. . . etc. etc. etc.
If the line actually moves more in my favor and closer to this game being a pk, then I would have to question my play with others as it wouldn't make sense especially if the public is all over Arizona. If the line moves back up to 3.5 or beyond, then this is what I would expect and playing Arizona would be rather easy IMO. If the line stays the same, I would have to question why an even amount of money is on Kansas given the way I have capped the game, but I will still likely play Arizona anyways.
In the end, its only one factor. I thought the line would be Arizona laying 4 or 5 and the line came out at 3.5 which is what I expected. . . I am surprised the line has been bet down early, but that doesn't mean that I'm wrong and those early "wise guys" (or whatever you want to call them) are correct.
Games that I have felt strongly about this year have for the most part been very successful no matter the line move. This is one of those games, but I still want to see what happens up till tomorrow afternoon sometime before I decide how hard I want to hit Arizona.
