arizona second half ....

[gman2]

if unlv just wants to jack 3 pointers all game, theyre going to get run of the floor in the second half. 17 3pt tries in the first half. is this loyola marymount circa 1989?

arizona (-5.5) for the 2h.
goodnight rebels.

 

[vinnie]

it was back and forth up until 3 minutes in the half unlv had more shots at the hoop than Zona if they give up launching 3's they should stay in this :shrug:

 

[gman2]

it was back and forth up until 3 minutes in the half unlv had more shots at the hoop than Zona if they give up launching 3's they should stay in this :shrug:

this is where it comes down to interpretation or philosophy. your point is valid. im of the strong belief that this is a perfect example of "fools gold" -- unlv thinks they can keep jacking 3s. but in the 2h when the legs start going and your shot attempts are coming 20, 21, and 22 feet from the basket, while arizona's are coming from point blank range, its going to be tough to keep up unless they start knocking down a high %. we'll see. but i tend to think this is one of those games where the dog gets run off the floor in the final 20:00 because of their unwillingness to try and score inside.

 

[vinnie]

not on this one G will be pulling for you

Good Luck !

 

[vinnie]

that's 3 on Wendell White

 

[slapdoggydog]

maybe zona will pull starters out and let us get a cover lol but dont think that can happen with all the fouls and launching bricks unlv is throwing up

 

[gman2]

up by 20-fuc.king-8 and not going to cover the 2nd half. just a total joke.

 

[gman2]

great call unlv backers. just like you capped it. come back from 28 down in the final 8:00. total effing joke. after awhile, these jamjobs become old.

 

[moe777]

was on it small myself g..thats why u cant lay points in that kind of situation,last 3 mins were a crap shoot,,arizona then dribbles out the clock..got to follow my own advise to never lay points,atleast not un toss up situations...i do have the lakers big for the 2nd hf and i got to sweat this out now,laying points again,i will never learn.

 

[gman2]

was on it small myself g..thats why u cant lay points in that kind of situation,last 3 mins were a crap shoot,,arizona then dribbles out the clock..got to follow my own advise to never lay points,atleast not un toss up situations...i do have the lakers big for the 2nd hf and i got to sweat this out now,laying points again,i will never learn.

cant tell you the number of dogs ive backed that have just laid the fu.ck down in the final minutes of a game to piss away a cover. backing one favorite to watch a team come back from 28 down in the final 8:00 and score a final second layup is just sick. it would be much different if i didnt have a hundred dogs just get the doors blown off to turn close games into blowouts.

 

[gman2]

then again, vegas was trying to get me to bet arizona. :mj07: i gotta talk to bgfalcon because his z-factor is supposed to be capping these final second backdoors correctly.

 

[gjn23]

cant tell you the number of dogs ive backed that have just laid the fu.ck down in the final minutes of a game to piss away a cover. backing one favorite to watch a team come back from 28 down in the final 8:00 and score a final second layup is just sick. it would be much different if i didnt have a hundred dogs just get the doors blown off to turn close games into blowouts.

but in the betting world unlv wasnt down 28, they were down 12.5 with 8 to go vs a team that lost interest because in their world, arizona was up 28.....throw in arizona's below average defense, lute going to the bench with 5 left and it's not that surprising that arizona won the game by 14, and you lost the 2h bet by 1.5

right now i wouldnt trust arizona with large spreads beause while we can light up the scoreboard we have trouble keeping the other team from scoring.......for the time being, arizona has turned into the phoenix suns

 

[gman2]

its just really, really hard to turn a 28 point lead into a 14 point final when you are a power conference team. if an 18 or 19 point game with 2:00 left turned into a backdoor, thems the breaks. but there really just arent enough possessions, even in an arizona game, to get outscored by 14 points in that kind of span no matter who is on the floor. its more mathematical than anything. you have to completely lay down to get outscored by more than 10 in such a span. especially considering arizona was in the double bonus so anytime they even got touched, theyd get free points. like i said, backdoors are going to happen. but not when youre essentially laying 15.5 and youre up 28 with 8:00. the "up 19, win by 14 backdoor" is far more common. any sort of effort by arizona results in a 20-24 point win simply by way of trading baskets, or even trading 2 for 1.

 

[vinnie]

 

[gjn23]

well arizona did manage to turn that 28 point lead into less than 20 almost immediately (about 90 secs) with quick shots so your scenario was correct...20 point lead with 6 mins left.

they basically got backdoored from that point on

 

[blgstocks]

:mj07: :mj07:
you crack me up vinnie

 

[BGFalcon]

then again, vegas was trying to get me to bet arizona.

LMAO! My z-factor ratings are not quite complete. When John Floyd left BGSU, it screwed up all my backdoor cover calculations.

thats why u cant lay points in that kind of situation

Thanks for the after-the-game advice Moe. I wonder what the analysis was when Arizona was up 28?

 

[johnnyb.]

reading these posts you'd think unlv was "little orphans of the poor"... all of their 5 starters are legit top level d-1 players!
the books put a 14 point spread up, its like they were only ones who felt rebels could cover.

 

[gman2]

reading these posts you'd think unlv was "little orphans of the poor"... all of their 5 starters are legit top level d-1 players!
the books put a 14 point spread up, its like they were only ones who felt rebels could cover.

interestingly enough, the reason why ucla is #1 and arizona is in the "teens" is because ucla puts teams away. both arizona and ucla played the exact same kind of team last night. unlv and long beach are both pretty decent, offensively skilled teams. yet both were overmatched by their opponent.

both games were 10:30 eastern tip off. both ucla and zona had strong 2h surges. both zona and ucla had 28 point leads with under 10:00 left.

one team won by 14 (arizona)
the other won by 30 (ucla)

arizona may have better overall talent than ucla, but once ucla gets you down, its impossible to mount too much of a rally just because they dont give away possessions. backdoor covers against ucla just wont happen very often. howland's teams just make it difficult to string together 8-0 or 10-2 runs. if you find yourself down 28 against ucla with under 10:00 left, youre lucky if you can make it respectable and get it down toward 20 or 22.

like i said, its one halftime. that game is an afterthought now.

but the ucla/arizona juxtaposition from last night speaks volumes, especially since its a recurring them with arizona.

busy day for me. gotta run. catch you later johnny.
original post had nothing to do with unlv. had to do more with how difficult it is to mount a 14 point rally in the final minutes, especially when your opponent is in the double bonus. very, very hard to do, even if they are half-assing it.

 

[johnnyb.]

being out here in los angeles, hardly anyone would compare unlv to long beach st. (my alma mater).

what long beach gets for talent is much different, unlv rebels actually get a blend of pac-10/big west.

my only point is unlv can run with pac-10 teams but only fullerton from big west can play with pac-10 (lower tier).