- Apr 4, 2002
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ALABAMA +1 - Arkansas is off to an impressive 3-0 start while beating Texas along the way, while Alabama is coming off of a shocking home loss to Northern Illinois. However, I feel that all that has done is give us some excellent value on Alabama here at home. The Crimson Tide is 4-2 ATS as a home underdog since 1999, including a covering effort vs. #1 Oklahoma in this role earlier this season. Alabama has also won this matchup handily each of the last 2 years, by scores of 31-10 and 30-12 respectively, and they may now be catching an overconfident Razorbacks club. That win at Texas notwithstanding, Arkansas has been a terrible road favorite in recent years, going only 3-9 ATS and 6-6 S/U in this role since 1999. Alabama represents a step up in class from the North Texas team the Hogs blasted last week, and Arkansas may be exposed here if they struggle on the ground, a distinct possibility vs. a Bama defense that is allowing only 67.2 rushing yards per game on 2.4 yards per carry.