Article 2
THE SPORT OF KINGS
Everyone has a different way of handicapping horses. Some will use software programs/tools that are out there in the market place. Some handicappers have created their own programs/tools. You can buy most software programs/tools over the Interent or through book stores etc. Everyone claims that their programs are better than others (I say if a person can develop his/her own method and it works do not change even if you have a losing streak) and they might be but I says whatever is working for you is the best. All programs/tools are not infallible. It could be a track bias, weather, jockey etc. that has complicated your selections. I ran across an article one time and it went something like this. Ever wonder why a horse runs a good time, comes back and runs a better time. The questions were asked, Did he run faster? Did this make him a better horse? Low and behold his next out he runs slower than both previous times and loses. I say here we have to consider quite a few variables. To explain, I use 1/5 of a second as a lenght. Can you imagine what happens and how much time a horse can be off by the horse leaving the gate wrong (stumbling, left, being bumped etc.), a jockey who rides his mount on the outside and not a good ground saving position during the race or getting boxed in etc. This can be converted into lost seconds or lenghts. Another factor when looking at race time is the track. All tracks are different and this is called a track bias. Tracks can favor speed, closers or both. We need to understand that weather can change the bias. This change could occur during any race card. If the weather is good at the track, you could start out having a fast track and the turf firm. If during the card it starts to rain it could all change depending on how much rain came. Remember the surface (soil) will change and could change back again before the end of the race card. Watch closely horses coming from other tracks. Their times could be faster than the horses at another track are running. This does not mean the horses are better. You will need to study the different tracks and what kind of cushion they are running. As example would be Saratoga. Their main track is different than their training track. I forget what the training track is called but it is a much deeper track. I just remember it called Oklahoma. I look at workouts and if I see a horse at the Oklahoma training track that has posted a good time I will put a wager on him regardless of his past performance. So in conclusion to what I am saying above always remember the TRACK BIAS and TIMES should always be looked at in there right prospective.
Also, remember to look at the upcoming weather reports when handicapping. If it looks like a good day, handicap your races using all the good previous races but if it looks like a bad day, handicap using off track races only. This will give you a better insight into a horses true performance. Another way to tell about a horses performance is by his pedigree, their record and the horses record. In the past performance records, it gives you the record of races won on off tracks and turf. This can be a help when handicapping.
Another area to look at is post positions. At all tracks certain post positions produce more winners than others (later Article).
When playing horses at a particular track, I will set a limit for the day at each track I want to play. I don't play every track I handicap just certain track that are producing but I do handicap all the track the same. This is split between the races evenly except for Maiden races. I usually go 1/2 time on those races. If I hit early, I will up my plays on the later races but I will make sure I kept a profit in reserve (later Article).
Hope you enjoy and Let's keep rolling at the Races.
pauldi
THE SPORT OF KINGS
Everyone has a different way of handicapping horses. Some will use software programs/tools that are out there in the market place. Some handicappers have created their own programs/tools. You can buy most software programs/tools over the Interent or through book stores etc. Everyone claims that their programs are better than others (I say if a person can develop his/her own method and it works do not change even if you have a losing streak) and they might be but I says whatever is working for you is the best. All programs/tools are not infallible. It could be a track bias, weather, jockey etc. that has complicated your selections. I ran across an article one time and it went something like this. Ever wonder why a horse runs a good time, comes back and runs a better time. The questions were asked, Did he run faster? Did this make him a better horse? Low and behold his next out he runs slower than both previous times and loses. I say here we have to consider quite a few variables. To explain, I use 1/5 of a second as a lenght. Can you imagine what happens and how much time a horse can be off by the horse leaving the gate wrong (stumbling, left, being bumped etc.), a jockey who rides his mount on the outside and not a good ground saving position during the race or getting boxed in etc. This can be converted into lost seconds or lenghts. Another factor when looking at race time is the track. All tracks are different and this is called a track bias. Tracks can favor speed, closers or both. We need to understand that weather can change the bias. This change could occur during any race card. If the weather is good at the track, you could start out having a fast track and the turf firm. If during the card it starts to rain it could all change depending on how much rain came. Remember the surface (soil) will change and could change back again before the end of the race card. Watch closely horses coming from other tracks. Their times could be faster than the horses at another track are running. This does not mean the horses are better. You will need to study the different tracks and what kind of cushion they are running. As example would be Saratoga. Their main track is different than their training track. I forget what the training track is called but it is a much deeper track. I just remember it called Oklahoma. I look at workouts and if I see a horse at the Oklahoma training track that has posted a good time I will put a wager on him regardless of his past performance. So in conclusion to what I am saying above always remember the TRACK BIAS and TIMES should always be looked at in there right prospective.
Also, remember to look at the upcoming weather reports when handicapping. If it looks like a good day, handicap your races using all the good previous races but if it looks like a bad day, handicap using off track races only. This will give you a better insight into a horses true performance. Another way to tell about a horses performance is by his pedigree, their record and the horses record. In the past performance records, it gives you the record of races won on off tracks and turf. This can be a help when handicapping.
Another area to look at is post positions. At all tracks certain post positions produce more winners than others (later Article).
When playing horses at a particular track, I will set a limit for the day at each track I want to play. I don't play every track I handicap just certain track that are producing but I do handicap all the track the same. This is split between the races evenly except for Maiden races. I usually go 1/2 time on those races. If I hit early, I will up my plays on the later races but I will make sure I kept a profit in reserve (later Article).
Hope you enjoy and Let's keep rolling at the Races.
pauldi
