Sure, I?m skeptical when someone points out an NFL angle that is winning more than 80 percent of the time this season.
But this one?s hitting 81 percent and makes sense. The catch is it?s only good for this week.
Take any home team off its bye week. It?s simple, but it`s been effective. There have been 12 instances of this occurring, and the home team is 9-2-1 against the spread.
Since the final week for byes was last Sunday, this is the last opportunity to play this angle. The four teams idle last Sunday were Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee and San Diego. The Bengals, Titans and Chargers are all home this week.
It makes sense that a team staying at home off its bye should do well in the parity-filled world of the NFL where every little edge helps.
This gives them more research time to go along with other natural edges such as rest, specific game-planning and catching their opponent in a bad situational spot.
There?s an old adage in the NFL that goes it?s not who you play, but when you play them. So far it?s been a gold mine for rested teams playing at home.
?Unless you?re the Vikings taking the Love Boat, it?s a tremendous advantage,? said Mike Seba, a linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
The first byes came out in Week 3. That meant the first rested home team test was in Week 4, and all three home teams covered. So right away we had an early inkling that this could be a winning trend.
The Browns were the only team that fit the criteria in Week 5. They beat the Bears by 10 as a 3-point underdog.
In Week 6 the angle went 1-1 with the Chiefs winning but the Raiders losing. In the last four weeks, the trend went 4-1-1 with the only loser being the Patriots, who failed to cover against the Bills in Week 8.
This week the Titans are +4 against the Jaguars, the Bengals are +5 against the Colts, and the Chargers -10 ? against the Bills. The line probably will go higher in the Jaguars-Titans and Colts-Bengals matchups. You can already find +4 ??s on the Titans and +5?s on the Bengals if you shop around.
But while the angle makes sense, I wouldn?t blindly bet a team just based on a 12-game sampling. It would just be another ingredient in the handicapping mix, although a strong factor.
The Bengals entered their bye week healthy, something rare at this late stage. That?s a reason why they?re 7-2. But the Titans and Chargers were both ravaged by injuries. The bye week came at a great time for them.
San Diego eked out a road win against the Jets minus several starting offensive linemen and linebackers. The Chargers expect to have all hands on deck now, while the Bills have to travel cross country. That?s a reason why the line has moved in San Diego?s favor, going from an opening -9 ? to as high as 10 ? at some books.
The Titans? receiving corps was decimated going into their bye and they were banged-up at several other positions, too. Now the Titans are expected to be much healthier. There?s even a chance they might get back Drew Bennett, their No. 1 wideout. Meanwhile, Jacksonville might be without its best running back, Fred Taylor, who didn`t play last week.
Home field must be protected at all times. If a team loses at home, it?s almost like a double loss. This mentality is another reason why home teams off a bye could be playing so well. At least it?s something to keep in mind this week ? and next year.
But this one?s hitting 81 percent and makes sense. The catch is it?s only good for this week.
Take any home team off its bye week. It?s simple, but it`s been effective. There have been 12 instances of this occurring, and the home team is 9-2-1 against the spread.
Since the final week for byes was last Sunday, this is the last opportunity to play this angle. The four teams idle last Sunday were Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee and San Diego. The Bengals, Titans and Chargers are all home this week.
It makes sense that a team staying at home off its bye should do well in the parity-filled world of the NFL where every little edge helps.
This gives them more research time to go along with other natural edges such as rest, specific game-planning and catching their opponent in a bad situational spot.
There?s an old adage in the NFL that goes it?s not who you play, but when you play them. So far it?s been a gold mine for rested teams playing at home.
?Unless you?re the Vikings taking the Love Boat, it?s a tremendous advantage,? said Mike Seba, a linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
The first byes came out in Week 3. That meant the first rested home team test was in Week 4, and all three home teams covered. So right away we had an early inkling that this could be a winning trend.
The Browns were the only team that fit the criteria in Week 5. They beat the Bears by 10 as a 3-point underdog.
In Week 6 the angle went 1-1 with the Chiefs winning but the Raiders losing. In the last four weeks, the trend went 4-1-1 with the only loser being the Patriots, who failed to cover against the Bills in Week 8.
This week the Titans are +4 against the Jaguars, the Bengals are +5 against the Colts, and the Chargers -10 ? against the Bills. The line probably will go higher in the Jaguars-Titans and Colts-Bengals matchups. You can already find +4 ??s on the Titans and +5?s on the Bengals if you shop around.
But while the angle makes sense, I wouldn?t blindly bet a team just based on a 12-game sampling. It would just be another ingredient in the handicapping mix, although a strong factor.
The Bengals entered their bye week healthy, something rare at this late stage. That?s a reason why they?re 7-2. But the Titans and Chargers were both ravaged by injuries. The bye week came at a great time for them.
San Diego eked out a road win against the Jets minus several starting offensive linemen and linebackers. The Chargers expect to have all hands on deck now, while the Bills have to travel cross country. That?s a reason why the line has moved in San Diego?s favor, going from an opening -9 ? to as high as 10 ? at some books.
The Titans? receiving corps was decimated going into their bye and they were banged-up at several other positions, too. Now the Titans are expected to be much healthier. There?s even a chance they might get back Drew Bennett, their No. 1 wideout. Meanwhile, Jacksonville might be without its best running back, Fred Taylor, who didn`t play last week.
Home field must be protected at all times. If a team loses at home, it?s almost like a double loss. This mentality is another reason why home teams off a bye could be playing so well. At least it?s something to keep in mind this week ? and next year.
