AT&T Pebble Beach
- Thread starter DOGS THAT BARK
- Start date
Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)
Tim Clark to win 28/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Also fancied Oberholser, but with that player available at only 33/1, there is better value on Clark at this price. After opening his season by making the cut at the Bob Hope event, he showed his abilities a week later at the Buick Invitational. On that occasion, he finished only three shots out of the playoff, but, just as importantly, he ranked 1st in driving accuracy and greens in regulation that week. And greens in regulation will be important given the smallness of the greens at the host course, Pebble Beach. That may be one reason why he has finished in the top-10 in each of the last two years here and against such a weak field, he should repeat the feat once again.
Bubba Watson to win 100/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Ladbrokes and BlueSq
If Keith Elliott's "Inspiration by Comparison" has any basis, this should be a good week for the only player to outrank J.B. Holmes in driving distance on the Tour. So far, he has come close to matching Holmes' FBR Open performance with finishes of 2nd in the MasterCard Masters in December, 4th in the Sony Open last month and set for another high finish until a final round 79 in the Buick Invitational. So long as he is driving well, these courses set up for pro-ams should play very easy for Watson. That makes 100/1 rather good odds.
Henrik Bjornstad to finish in the top-ten 11/1 @ Stan James
Bjornstad has been quite a revelation since returning from a spell outside the game. He qualified through all three stages of Q-School and even though he did little more than make the cut in his first PGA Tour start, he has certainly found his feet since then. He held the sole lead in the final round of the Buick Invitational against a much stronger field than is present this week and though he struggled under the pressure, he still finished 10th and just three shots out of the playoff. And if a pressure hangover might have been expected the following week, it was certainly not evident as he remained in contention throughout, shooting every round under 70 in the FBR Open to finish 12th. Like Watson, he has not played in this event previously, but his successful start to the new season, the success of new-boy Holmes last week and the weakness of this field all point to a good chance for another top-10 finish for the only Norwegian to have competed on this Tour.
Tim Clark to win 28/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Also fancied Oberholser, but with that player available at only 33/1, there is better value on Clark at this price. After opening his season by making the cut at the Bob Hope event, he showed his abilities a week later at the Buick Invitational. On that occasion, he finished only three shots out of the playoff, but, just as importantly, he ranked 1st in driving accuracy and greens in regulation that week. And greens in regulation will be important given the smallness of the greens at the host course, Pebble Beach. That may be one reason why he has finished in the top-10 in each of the last two years here and against such a weak field, he should repeat the feat once again.
Bubba Watson to win 100/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Ladbrokes and BlueSq
If Keith Elliott's "Inspiration by Comparison" has any basis, this should be a good week for the only player to outrank J.B. Holmes in driving distance on the Tour. So far, he has come close to matching Holmes' FBR Open performance with finishes of 2nd in the MasterCard Masters in December, 4th in the Sony Open last month and set for another high finish until a final round 79 in the Buick Invitational. So long as he is driving well, these courses set up for pro-ams should play very easy for Watson. That makes 100/1 rather good odds.
Henrik Bjornstad to finish in the top-ten 11/1 @ Stan James
Bjornstad has been quite a revelation since returning from a spell outside the game. He qualified through all three stages of Q-School and even though he did little more than make the cut in his first PGA Tour start, he has certainly found his feet since then. He held the sole lead in the final round of the Buick Invitational against a much stronger field than is present this week and though he struggled under the pressure, he still finished 10th and just three shots out of the playoff. And if a pressure hangover might have been expected the following week, it was certainly not evident as he remained in contention throughout, shooting every round under 70 in the FBR Open to finish 12th. Like Watson, he has not played in this event previously, but his successful start to the new season, the success of new-boy Holmes last week and the weakness of this field all point to a good chance for another top-10 finish for the only Norwegian to have competed on this Tour.
TOURNAMENT MATCHUPS (Carib)
RYAN PALMER (-110) over JOE OGILVIE
MIKE WEIR (-110) over DAVIS LOVE III
RYAN PALMER (-110) over JOE OGILVIE
MIKE WEIR (-110) over DAVIS LOVE III
Atwal Top 10 @ 10/1
72 holes
Pernice -125 over Flesch
Atwal -110 over Senden
Sutherland -125 over Armour
08 Feb 2006 10:11 PM - 72 - Pernice v Flesch
1: (Straight) Tom Pernice Jr @ 1.75 Not Settled.
Bet Number: 10810590 Bet Type: Straight
07 Feb 2006 10:00 PM - 72 - Atwal v Senden
1: (Straight) Arjun Atwal @ 1.90 Not Settled.
Bet Number: 10800433 Bet Type: Straight
07 Feb 2006 09:57 PM - 72 - Armour v Sutherland
2: (Straight) Kevin Sutherland @ 1.75 Not Settled.
Bet Number: 10800427 Bet Type: Straight
07 Feb 2006 09:51 PM - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - Top 10
32: (Straight) Arjun Atwal @ 11.00 Not Settled
72 holes
Pernice -125 over Flesch
Atwal -110 over Senden
Sutherland -125 over Armour
08 Feb 2006 10:11 PM - 72 - Pernice v Flesch
1: (Straight) Tom Pernice Jr @ 1.75 Not Settled.
Bet Number: 10810590 Bet Type: Straight
07 Feb 2006 10:00 PM - 72 - Atwal v Senden
1: (Straight) Arjun Atwal @ 1.90 Not Settled.
Bet Number: 10800433 Bet Type: Straight
07 Feb 2006 09:57 PM - 72 - Armour v Sutherland
2: (Straight) Kevin Sutherland @ 1.75 Not Settled.
Bet Number: 10800427 Bet Type: Straight
07 Feb 2006 09:51 PM - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - Top 10
32: (Straight) Arjun Atwal @ 11.00 Not Settled
It's quiet on here this week!!
Top 10 finish
Ogilvie - 8-1 - 2 points
Mcginley - 8-1 - 2 points
Top 5 finish
Ogilvie - 20-1 - 1 point
Mcginley - 20-1 - 1 poinr
Atwal - 18-1 - 1 point
Top 10 finish
Ogilvie - 8-1 - 2 points
Mcginley - 8-1 - 2 points
Top 5 finish
Ogilvie - 20-1 - 1 point
Mcginley - 20-1 - 1 poinr
Atwal - 18-1 - 1 point
Crosby
Crosby
Vijay Singh WINS AT&T PEBBLE B+9.20
Vijay Singh OV/Phil Mickelson+1.15
Jeff Sluman OV/Scott McCarron-1.30
Vijay in an Upset!!
Crosby
Vijay Singh WINS AT&T PEBBLE B+9.20
Vijay Singh OV/Phil Mickelson+1.15
Jeff Sluman OV/Scott McCarron-1.30
Vijay in an Upset!!
- Feb 26, 2001
- 13,593
- 164
- 63
outrights
Weir 30-1
Lehman 75-1
Maggert 100-1
Triplett 100-1
Clark 25-1 all for .2 units
Matchups
Weir over Love -3.30 units
Clark over Donald 2.0 units
Lehman over Atwal -1.1 units
glta
Weir 30-1
Lehman 75-1
Maggert 100-1
Triplett 100-1
Clark 25-1 all for .2 units
Matchups
Weir over Love -3.30 units
Clark over Donald 2.0 units
Lehman over Atwal -1.1 units
glta
OUTRIGHTS:
Arron Oberholser:box2: (33/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods:mj08:
Tom Pernice:mj09: (100/1) e.w. @ BetFred
Jesper Parnevik dance2 (40/1) e.w. @ BetFred
Mike Weir:canada1 (30/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods:mj08:
MATCHUPS:
Atwal(-110) over Lehnman (Tournament) @ 5dimes
GL
Arron Oberholser:box2: (33/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods:mj08:
Tom Pernice:mj09: (100/1) e.w. @ BetFred
Jesper Parnevik dance2 (40/1) e.w. @ BetFred
Mike Weir:canada1 (30/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods:mj08:
MATCHUPS:
Atwal(-110) over Lehnman (Tournament) @ 5dimes
GL
1st rd
Sluman -115 over McCarron
T Clark -110 over Donald
Atwal +105 over Lehman
Prop birdies
Mick -110 over Singh (-1/2)
got by with one last week-will try again-hate H to H birdie props
but Singh been struggling-1st rd in particular--and tendency to miss rt off tee quite penal on this course.
Sluman -115 over McCarron
T Clark -110 over Donald
Atwal +105 over Lehman
Prop birdies
Mick -110 over Singh (-1/2)
got by with one last week-will try again-hate H to H birdie props
but Singh been struggling-1st rd in particular--and tendency to miss rt off tee quite penal on this course.
Hope to start of the year right (down the fairway) this year with the sticks:
Need to get a book with better golf odds...
To Win:
P Mickelson 5-1
T Clark 20-1
M Weir 30-1
A Oberholser 30-1
"Fairways and Greens boys, Fairways and Greens"
GL ALL
Need to get a book with better golf odds...
To Win:
P Mickelson 5-1
T Clark 20-1
M Weir 30-1
A Oberholser 30-1
"Fairways and Greens boys, Fairways and Greens"
GL ALL
weekly totals 72 holes 1-2 --all decided at cut
1st rd 3-1 2nd rd 1-0-1 3rd rd 1-0 4th rs 0-2
1st rd
Sluman -115 over McCarron>win (-1/+1)
T Clark -110 over Donald>loss (-6/-10)
Atwal +105 over Lehman>win (-4/even)
Prop birdies
Mick -110 over Singh (-1/2)>win (9/5)
Interesting day as been long time since they had firm fairways in this tourney--generally rain soaked.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
2nd rd -
Stiles -120 over Watney @ 5dimes> push (-1/-1)
birdies or better
Clark -110 over Sheehan (-1/2)>win (5/4)
3rd rd Ober -105 over Weir >win (-6/-3)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
4th rd -
Weir +110 over Clark (-1/2)> loss (7-15)
Weir/Clark -115 over 23 1/2> (22)
Murphy still alive and well
pending 72 all decided @ cut
72 holes
Pernice -125 over Flesch >loss
Atwal -110 over Senden>loss
Sutherland -125 over Armour>win
1st rd 3-1 2nd rd 1-0-1 3rd rd 1-0 4th rs 0-2
1st rd
Sluman -115 over McCarron>win (-1/+1)
T Clark -110 over Donald>loss (-6/-10)
Atwal +105 over Lehman>win (-4/even)
Prop birdies
Mick -110 over Singh (-1/2)>win (9/5)
Interesting day as been long time since they had firm fairways in this tourney--generally rain soaked.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
2nd rd -
Stiles -120 over Watney @ 5dimes> push (-1/-1)
birdies or better
Clark -110 over Sheehan (-1/2)>win (5/4)
3rd rd Ober -105 over Weir >win (-6/-3)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
4th rd -
Weir +110 over Clark (-1/2)> loss (7-15)
Weir/Clark -115 over 23 1/2> (22)
Murphy still alive and well
pending 72 all decided @ cut
72 holes
Pernice -125 over Flesch >loss
Atwal -110 over Senden>loss
Sutherland -125 over Armour>win
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2nd rd -pick and prop
match
Stiles -120 over Watney @ 5dimes
birdies or better
Clark -110 over Sheehan (-1/2) @ WW/HW
going to give Clark chance for amends on yesterdays loss where he ran into buzz saw vs Donald who tied course record on Spyglass.
Clark playing @ PH today and can't think of any player in field better suited for this course.
match
Stiles -120 over Watney @ 5dimes
birdies or better
Clark -110 over Sheehan (-1/2) @ WW/HW
going to give Clark chance for amends on yesterdays loss where he ran into buzz saw vs Donald who tied course record on Spyglass.
Clark playing @ PH today and can't think of any player in field better suited for this course.
DTB can I ask your opinion.
The current prices on the spread firms for winning score are 267-268.
This means you can bet that the winning score will either be lower than -21 or higher than -20. For every shot over or under the mark you choose you lose 1x your stake. e.g. Go for lower than -21 for $100 if the winning score is -17 you lose $400, if it's -25 you win $400. Go for higher than -20 and it's -13 you win $700.
Winning score last year was -19 with Mickelson shooting 62 in rd 1 and leading all the way, but with the help of no wind in rd 4, although am I right in saying it was cold and damp?
This year we have the courses currently playing easier than in previous years BUT the forecast wind for Sat is 12 mph and 16mph on Sunday.
Only three players beat 71 on Sunday last year ... what will happen to the scores on Sunday this year if the wind is 16mph AND the course is dry?
Considering everything, as I know you do, what would your estimate of the winning score be?
The current prices on the spread firms for winning score are 267-268.
This means you can bet that the winning score will either be lower than -21 or higher than -20. For every shot over or under the mark you choose you lose 1x your stake. e.g. Go for lower than -21 for $100 if the winning score is -17 you lose $400, if it's -25 you win $400. Go for higher than -20 and it's -13 you win $700.
Winning score last year was -19 with Mickelson shooting 62 in rd 1 and leading all the way, but with the help of no wind in rd 4, although am I right in saying it was cold and damp?
This year we have the courses currently playing easier than in previous years BUT the forecast wind for Sat is 12 mph and 16mph on Sunday.
Only three players beat 71 on Sunday last year ... what will happen to the scores on Sunday this year if the wind is 16mph AND the course is dry?
Considering everything, as I know you do, what would your estimate of the winning score be?
Just seeing post now Shaker--let me look at my notes--be right back.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
Let me give you some data go on that may help.
Weather will be determining factor if we can somehow gauge it correctly.
1st I only see projected wind for Sat and Sun of 8 mph at weather.com and Wunderground--where are you getting the 16 mph projection? if 16 is correct will be BIG diff on scores on weekend.
I think you use Wunderground for past weather which I find amiss when comparing to notes-don't know why. If you look up last years Sunday weather at wunderground it says 4 to 7 mph however my notes say 12 to 15 mph which I can confirm I believe on recap of 05 at pga.com
"Only 14 players managed to break par at Pebble Beach, where sunny conditions gave way to a light rain that blew sideways and put some of the teeth back into the venerable cliffside course. Weir was the only player in the 60s."
Would look at leader board after today and see how many near top have to play pebble twice which will be killer if you get 12mph each day.
I think PH and SG will still play easier than last year because trees protect them especially PH. The run they are getting on firm fairways has been making shorter accurate hitters very competative this year. Usually this tourney is dominated by big hitters due to wet conditions.
Hope this might cover some unknowns you may have had--as far as over or under--it would go with what the wind does and the rest week--which is big uncertainty. However a thought that has always served me well when trying to gauge future and uncertainty- bad weather has much greater impact on scores than good weather--
Not a lot that can happen to lower scores but many things can happen to raise them.
I would also add 1.5 to 2 strokes on Sunday to PB scores over easy Thur Fri Sat (amatuer) pins at PB. PB has very small greens compared especially to PH bout 1,500 Sq ft more. Scrambling stats will be premium on sunday.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
Let me give you some data go on that may help.
Weather will be determining factor if we can somehow gauge it correctly.
1st I only see projected wind for Sat and Sun of 8 mph at weather.com and Wunderground--where are you getting the 16 mph projection? if 16 is correct will be BIG diff on scores on weekend.
I think you use Wunderground for past weather which I find amiss when comparing to notes-don't know why. If you look up last years Sunday weather at wunderground it says 4 to 7 mph however my notes say 12 to 15 mph which I can confirm I believe on recap of 05 at pga.com
"Only 14 players managed to break par at Pebble Beach, where sunny conditions gave way to a light rain that blew sideways and put some of the teeth back into the venerable cliffside course. Weir was the only player in the 60s."
Would look at leader board after today and see how many near top have to play pebble twice which will be killer if you get 12mph each day.
I think PH and SG will still play easier than last year because trees protect them especially PH. The run they are getting on firm fairways has been making shorter accurate hitters very competative this year. Usually this tourney is dominated by big hitters due to wet conditions.
Hope this might cover some unknowns you may have had--as far as over or under--it would go with what the wind does and the rest week--which is big uncertainty. However a thought that has always served me well when trying to gauge future and uncertainty- bad weather has much greater impact on scores than good weather--
Not a lot that can happen to lower scores but many things can happen to raise them.
I would also add 1.5 to 2 strokes on Sunday to PB scores over easy Thur Fri Sat (amatuer) pins at PB. PB has very small greens compared especially to PH bout 1,500 Sq ft more. Scrambling stats will be premium on sunday.
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Thanks DTB, unfortunately couldn't take in your advice as wanted to make a play before first tee-off in rd 2.
You are right it does say 8 mph x 2 for the w/e ... but that has changed. When I posted it was 12 for Sat and 16 for Sun, I use weather.com for projected, used wunderground for historic. Will go careful of the latter now though.
At least after rd 2 the scores have stayed low and thankfully going high on 268 looks the right play ... I mean, if Weir doesn't win a score in the 20s looks almost impossible, and Weir himself has Spyglass in rd 3 (only one score of 67 in rd 2 I think) with all three courses having a rd 2 average of between 0.3 & 0.5 shots over par.
Just for your information I'll post the post rd 2 prices here later.
You are right it does say 8 mph x 2 for the w/e ... but that has changed. When I posted it was 12 for Sat and 16 for Sun, I use weather.com for projected, used wunderground for historic. Will go careful of the latter now though.
At least after rd 2 the scores have stayed low and thankfully going high on 268 looks the right play ... I mean, if Weir doesn't win a score in the 20s looks almost impossible, and Weir himself has Spyglass in rd 3 (only one score of 67 in rd 2 I think) with all three courses having a rd 2 average of between 0.3 & 0.5 shots over par.
Just for your information I'll post the post rd 2 prices here later.
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Those scoring props are fun but liked the simple ones they have at B&W where you have defined win or loss--hated it when they closed U.S. accounts --I liked that book.
Note on Wunderlink--when 1st up I used to check history to confirm my notes and found they are always correct on percipitation--but not so on wind--I believe they must take ave of 24 hours which includes little wind at night often.
Would like to see weather turn nasty Sunday.Weir one of best bad weather players. Got some place double wagers in the hunt--made mistake and bet Sky's twice by accident--hope the golf gods are in benevolent mood.
Selection Details Class/Sport Event Type Event Market Date Selection
Golf Johnnie Walker Classic |Johnnie Walker Classic Place 1st 5| Place Only - 1st 5
08/02/2006 23:00 Choi K-J @ 15/2
Golf AT&T Pro-Am |ATand T Pro-Am Place 1st 5| Place Only - 1st 5
09/02/2006 16:30 Weir M @ 15/2
Bet Slip: 39227937
Placed on: 7 Feb 2006 21:28 CST 05:58
Multi Bet
STATUS Description Price Wager USD Payout Results
Accepted AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am - Tournament - Top 5 - WEIR, Mike Win 11.00 10.00 495.00
Johnnie Walker Classic - Tournament - Top 5 - O'HERN, Nick Win 4.50
49.50 Effective Price
Note on Wunderlink--when 1st up I used to check history to confirm my notes and found they are always correct on percipitation--but not so on wind--I believe they must take ave of 24 hours which includes little wind at night often.
Would like to see weather turn nasty Sunday.Weir one of best bad weather players. Got some place double wagers in the hunt--made mistake and bet Sky's twice by accident--hope the golf gods are in benevolent mood.
Selection Details Class/Sport Event Type Event Market Date Selection
Golf Johnnie Walker Classic |Johnnie Walker Classic Place 1st 5| Place Only - 1st 5
08/02/2006 23:00 Choi K-J @ 15/2
Golf AT&T Pro-Am |ATand T Pro-Am Place 1st 5| Place Only - 1st 5
09/02/2006 16:30 Weir M @ 15/2
Bet Slip: 39227937
Placed on: 7 Feb 2006 21:28 CST 05:58
Multi Bet
STATUS Description Price Wager USD Payout Results
Accepted AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am - Tournament - Top 5 - WEIR, Mike Win 11.00 10.00 495.00
Johnnie Walker Classic - Tournament - Top 5 - O'HERN, Nick Win 4.50
49.50 Effective Price
