At the Gate - Friday
July 3, 2009
I have been whining about the weather in New York for what seems like two months, but for the second day in a row, we actually got to see all of the grass races carded actually run on the turf.
After a 82% +ROI with my top picks on Wednesday to start the week, I snuck in a modest profit on Thursday, three winners on top producing a +ROI of 20%.
I listed all nine winners, with six of the winners either my top pick or second choice. That worked out well for me, as rolling doubles and Pick 3?s have been my wager of choice over the past week.
I have found a few nice overlays in the doubles recently, including a double yesterday with Newport ($7.90) and Scotchontherocks ($13.60) that returned a generous $91.50.
With the holiday weekend upon us, the NYRA elected to go with a 1:00 post time today, but will go back to the 3:00 post time for the remainder of the meeting.
The meet ends on July 26, with the Saratoga meeting opening on July 29.
Friday?s feature is the $65,000 Caress Stakes, a six-furlong turf race for fillies and mares. The race drew a field of nine with one main track only entrant.
The favorite is likely going to be Smart and Fancy, who is coming off a win in the $50,000 A Very One Stakes at Pimlico in her last outing, her sixth career win on turf in nine outings.
Her main rival appears to be the Bobby Frankel trainee Modern Look, who is dropping out of Grade 1 company and cutting back to a sprint.
For Saturday we will head off to the Jersey Shore to attempt to come up with a winner in the $750,000 United Nations at Monmouth Park.
To purchase my full card report for Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opener from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 OClm $35,000N2X (1:00 ET)
#3 Catty Madeline 8/1
#7 Queen of Protocol 4/1
#2 Ambidextrous / #2b Tulipmainia 3/1
#6 Smart Engagement 5/2
Analysis: #3 Catty Madeline was outrun last out in her first go off nearly a six-month layoff. The filly is a two-time winner over the turf here but this is her first go at a route. Both of her turf winners were over ground with some give to it and she might see the same here today. Maragh sticks with the ML favorite while Castellano lands here on this filly. She looks like she has enough pedigree to handle the extra ground and her 8/1 ML looks more than fair.
#7 Queen of Protocol is making her first start since November where she checked in fifth at today?s condition. Her win versus state bred Alw-1 company came over a yielding turf course at the Big A and she was coming off a five-month layoff. The Donk barn is 23% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. She has had some gaps between works but the barn knows how to bring them back off the bench.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 2,3,6,7
TRI: 3,7 / 2,3,6,7 / 2,3,6,7,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 9 Caress S. (5:17 et)
#7 Smart and Fancy
#9 Modern Look
#6 J Z Warrior
#2 Lucky Copy
Analysis: #7 Smart and Fancy came back off a seven month layoff with a game win last out in the A Very One at Pimlico, her sixth career win on turf in nine starts. Five of her six career wins on turf have come at 5 furlongs, one at 5 1/2 and now she is asked to go six. She comes from off the pace and she looks capable of handling the extra ground. She has kept busy in the mornings since her last start, six published works on the morning tab. She looks like she is going to be tough to beat in this spot.
#9 Modern Look stalked the early pace, faded to finish seventh last out in the G1 Just a Game going a mile over yielding footing, now cuts back to six furlongs, and drops into an easier spot. She has a Group 3 win on her resume going seven furlongs. She was a game second two back in a restricted stake at Santa Anita in her U.S. debut, which was off a nine-month layoff. The third time out for Frankel could be the charm here.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 7,9 / 2,6,7,9
TRI: 7,9 / 2,6,7,9 / 2,3,6,7,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R1: #3 Catty Madeline 8/1
R10: #10 Puregoodniss 12/1
Good luck today!
July 3, 2009
I have been whining about the weather in New York for what seems like two months, but for the second day in a row, we actually got to see all of the grass races carded actually run on the turf.
After a 82% +ROI with my top picks on Wednesday to start the week, I snuck in a modest profit on Thursday, three winners on top producing a +ROI of 20%.
I listed all nine winners, with six of the winners either my top pick or second choice. That worked out well for me, as rolling doubles and Pick 3?s have been my wager of choice over the past week.
I have found a few nice overlays in the doubles recently, including a double yesterday with Newport ($7.90) and Scotchontherocks ($13.60) that returned a generous $91.50.
With the holiday weekend upon us, the NYRA elected to go with a 1:00 post time today, but will go back to the 3:00 post time for the remainder of the meeting.
The meet ends on July 26, with the Saratoga meeting opening on July 29.
Friday?s feature is the $65,000 Caress Stakes, a six-furlong turf race for fillies and mares. The race drew a field of nine with one main track only entrant.
The favorite is likely going to be Smart and Fancy, who is coming off a win in the $50,000 A Very One Stakes at Pimlico in her last outing, her sixth career win on turf in nine outings.
Her main rival appears to be the Bobby Frankel trainee Modern Look, who is dropping out of Grade 1 company and cutting back to a sprint.
For Saturday we will head off to the Jersey Shore to attempt to come up with a winner in the $750,000 United Nations at Monmouth Park.
To purchase my full card report for Belmont Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opener from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 OClm $35,000N2X (1:00 ET)
#3 Catty Madeline 8/1
#7 Queen of Protocol 4/1
#2 Ambidextrous / #2b Tulipmainia 3/1
#6 Smart Engagement 5/2
Analysis: #3 Catty Madeline was outrun last out in her first go off nearly a six-month layoff. The filly is a two-time winner over the turf here but this is her first go at a route. Both of her turf winners were over ground with some give to it and she might see the same here today. Maragh sticks with the ML favorite while Castellano lands here on this filly. She looks like she has enough pedigree to handle the extra ground and her 8/1 ML looks more than fair.
#7 Queen of Protocol is making her first start since November where she checked in fifth at today?s condition. Her win versus state bred Alw-1 company came over a yielding turf course at the Big A and she was coming off a five-month layoff. The Donk barn is 23% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. She has had some gaps between works but the barn knows how to bring them back off the bench.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 2,3,6,7
TRI: 3,7 / 2,3,6,7 / 2,3,6,7,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 9 Caress S. (5:17 et)
#7 Smart and Fancy
#9 Modern Look
#6 J Z Warrior
#2 Lucky Copy
Analysis: #7 Smart and Fancy came back off a seven month layoff with a game win last out in the A Very One at Pimlico, her sixth career win on turf in nine starts. Five of her six career wins on turf have come at 5 furlongs, one at 5 1/2 and now she is asked to go six. She comes from off the pace and she looks capable of handling the extra ground. She has kept busy in the mornings since her last start, six published works on the morning tab. She looks like she is going to be tough to beat in this spot.
#9 Modern Look stalked the early pace, faded to finish seventh last out in the G1 Just a Game going a mile over yielding footing, now cuts back to six furlongs, and drops into an easier spot. She has a Group 3 win on her resume going seven furlongs. She was a game second two back in a restricted stake at Santa Anita in her U.S. debut, which was off a nine-month layoff. The third time out for Frankel could be the charm here.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 7,9 / 2,6,7,9
TRI: 7,9 / 2,6,7,9 / 2,3,6,7,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R1: #3 Catty Madeline 8/1
R10: #10 Puregoodniss 12/1
Good luck today!
