At the Gate - Saturday
With turf stars Gio Ponti and Presious Passion electing to go in last Saturday?s Arlington Million (G1), Grand Couturier looks like he has a legitimate shot of winning the $500,000 Sword Dancer Invitational Stakes (G1) at Saratoga for a record third year in a row.
The Robert Ribaudo runner is making his third start off the layoff and while his form does not look all that sharp, he did not look like he was at the top of his game in the previous two years when he won this race.
The six year old is my top pick, and if he fails to fire, I?ll be rooting (at least with my heart if not my bankroll) for the ten year old Better Talk Now.
The Graham Motion runner won this race in 2004, as well as the Breeders? Cup Turf that year. Last year he was the runner up in the Sword Dancer.
If jockey Ramon Dominguez can guide the old timer home first, he would be the first ten year old to win a Grade 1 in a flat race in the Spa?s history.
While it seems most Grade 1 winners are whisked off to the breeding shed far too early, this old gelding just keeps on ticking. The gelding has earned at least one 100+ Beyer in each of the last seven years.
He has 14 career wins in 50 starts and has earned over $4.2 million in his long career. If he runs big today, Motion could point him to the Breeder?s Cup Turf for the sixth consecutive year.
Here is today's opener from Saratoga to get our day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Clm $16,000 (1:00 ET)
#9 Chief Export 5/1
#7 Double Or Nothing 5/1
#1 Fuhrever Dancing / #1a Hurricane Heat 2/1
#2 Bebob 3/1
#9 Chief Export drops out of an open $25K claimer where the gelding raced evenly in a fifth place finish, his first go for the Arroyo barn off the claim. Two back for a $15K tag the gelding set the early fractions and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish. That effort came off a 2 1/2 month break. The gelding now makes his third start of his current form cycle with a slight class drop and this guy does not run a bad one very often, landing in the exacta 27 times in his career. The barn does good work with recent claims.
#7 Double Or Nothing returns off a two-month break, last out dueling for the early lead before weakening to finish fifth against $10K starter handicap company. The gelding ran big in his first go for Maker off the claim but his last two were sub par. The freshening should so him some good and the barn is 26% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The gelding has a won over the Spa main track, breaking his maiden for a $50K tag back in '07.
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 7,9 / 1,2,7,9
TRI: 7,9 / 1,2,7,9 / 1,2,5,7,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:
MTH Race 9 Monmouth Oaks G3 (4:50 ET)
#9 Malibu Prayer 7/2
#3 Just Jenda 3/1
#2 Hightap 7/2
#7 Sweet Relish 6/1
#9 Malibu Prayer is coming off a career top speed figure but was no match for the winner, finishing 7 ? lengths behind Careless Jewel, who got loose and went gate to wire to win the Delaware Oaks (G2). Two back our top pick was second in the three-horse field in the Mother Goose (G1). That race was won by Rachel Alexandra, who came back to win the Haskell (G1) against the boys in her next outing on August 2 at Monmouth Park. Third place finisher Flashing came out of the Mother Goose to win the Test (G1) in her next start at Saratoga on August 8. The Pletcher filly owns a solid pace profile throughout and should get a good tracking trip from just off the pace, and that style fits well on the Jersey Shore.
#3 Just Jenda overcame stumbling out of the gate to win the Serena?s Song over the main track here by 8 ? lengths in a sharp looking effort. She was making her first start off a 2 ? month break and is one of just two in here that has a win over the main track. She has won five of nine career starts, which includes four stakes wins at four different racetracks. The filly is in good hands with Larry Jones and the trainer put a bullet drill into her on August 8. She looks like she is going to end up going off as the favorite and it looks tough to keep her out of the exacta.
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 2,3,7,9
TRI: 3,9 / 2,3,7,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 10 Sword Dancer Invitational Stakes G1 (5:47 ET)
#1 Grand Couturier 3/1
#8 Quijano 5/1
#10 Musketier 6/1
#4 Better Talk Now 5/1
#1 Grand Couturier is backing seeking his third win in a row in the Sword Dancer. The six year old comes into the race with a three race losing streak but he won the last two runnings of this race with similar losing streaks. Last out in the Man O? War (G1) he was shuffled back while down along the inside in the early going, came with a six wide run at the quarter pole but did not have enough punch and checked in fifth, beaten four lengths for the top spot. The winner was Gio Ponti, who came back with an impressive win in the Arlington Million (G1) last Saturday. He looks primed and ready in his third start of his current form cycle.
#8 Quijano was a good third in the Man O? War, beaten 2 ? lengths for the top spot. The gelding tracked the early pace, made a good move around the far turn, had to wait briefly for some running room and finished up well. The German bred makes his third start of his current form cycle and second start since coming to the U.S. This guy is a seven time winner at the distance and does not need to move forward much off that effort to be in the mix here.
#10 Musketier was the pacesetter in the Man O? War and held on gamely for the runner up spot while no match for Gio Ponti. The seven year old won the Singspiel (G3) two back at Woodbine at 1 ? miles. He draws an outside post but has enough early speed and there is enough of a run to the turn he won?t get parked out wide. In fact, there really is not much other early speed in here, but there are several in here including #2 Gentleman Chaser and #3 Lauro that have shown enough tactical speed in the last that they could be the pacesetter if the jock decides to send. The seven year is coming in off back to back career tops.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,4,8,10
TRI: 1,8 / 1,4,8,10 / 1,3,4,5,8,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R3: #6 Temore 12/1
R3: #5 Close Encounter 8/1
R5: #4 Captiva Pass 10/1
R7: #2 Munition 8/1
R8: #7 Smart Enuf 8/1
R9: #8 Independent George 8/1
R9: #1 Dubai Gold 15/1
R11: #10 J L Bernstein 12/1
Good luck today!
With turf stars Gio Ponti and Presious Passion electing to go in last Saturday?s Arlington Million (G1), Grand Couturier looks like he has a legitimate shot of winning the $500,000 Sword Dancer Invitational Stakes (G1) at Saratoga for a record third year in a row.
The Robert Ribaudo runner is making his third start off the layoff and while his form does not look all that sharp, he did not look like he was at the top of his game in the previous two years when he won this race.
The six year old is my top pick, and if he fails to fire, I?ll be rooting (at least with my heart if not my bankroll) for the ten year old Better Talk Now.
The Graham Motion runner won this race in 2004, as well as the Breeders? Cup Turf that year. Last year he was the runner up in the Sword Dancer.
If jockey Ramon Dominguez can guide the old timer home first, he would be the first ten year old to win a Grade 1 in a flat race in the Spa?s history.
While it seems most Grade 1 winners are whisked off to the breeding shed far too early, this old gelding just keeps on ticking. The gelding has earned at least one 100+ Beyer in each of the last seven years.
He has 14 career wins in 50 starts and has earned over $4.2 million in his long career. If he runs big today, Motion could point him to the Breeder?s Cup Turf for the sixth consecutive year.
Here is today's opener from Saratoga to get our day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Clm $16,000 (1:00 ET)
#9 Chief Export 5/1
#7 Double Or Nothing 5/1
#1 Fuhrever Dancing / #1a Hurricane Heat 2/1
#2 Bebob 3/1
#9 Chief Export drops out of an open $25K claimer where the gelding raced evenly in a fifth place finish, his first go for the Arroyo barn off the claim. Two back for a $15K tag the gelding set the early fractions and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish. That effort came off a 2 1/2 month break. The gelding now makes his third start of his current form cycle with a slight class drop and this guy does not run a bad one very often, landing in the exacta 27 times in his career. The barn does good work with recent claims.
#7 Double Or Nothing returns off a two-month break, last out dueling for the early lead before weakening to finish fifth against $10K starter handicap company. The gelding ran big in his first go for Maker off the claim but his last two were sub par. The freshening should so him some good and the barn is 26% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The gelding has a won over the Spa main track, breaking his maiden for a $50K tag back in '07.
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 7,9 / 1,2,7,9
TRI: 7,9 / 1,2,7,9 / 1,2,5,7,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:
MTH Race 9 Monmouth Oaks G3 (4:50 ET)
#9 Malibu Prayer 7/2
#3 Just Jenda 3/1
#2 Hightap 7/2
#7 Sweet Relish 6/1
#9 Malibu Prayer is coming off a career top speed figure but was no match for the winner, finishing 7 ? lengths behind Careless Jewel, who got loose and went gate to wire to win the Delaware Oaks (G2). Two back our top pick was second in the three-horse field in the Mother Goose (G1). That race was won by Rachel Alexandra, who came back to win the Haskell (G1) against the boys in her next outing on August 2 at Monmouth Park. Third place finisher Flashing came out of the Mother Goose to win the Test (G1) in her next start at Saratoga on August 8. The Pletcher filly owns a solid pace profile throughout and should get a good tracking trip from just off the pace, and that style fits well on the Jersey Shore.
#3 Just Jenda overcame stumbling out of the gate to win the Serena?s Song over the main track here by 8 ? lengths in a sharp looking effort. She was making her first start off a 2 ? month break and is one of just two in here that has a win over the main track. She has won five of nine career starts, which includes four stakes wins at four different racetracks. The filly is in good hands with Larry Jones and the trainer put a bullet drill into her on August 8. She looks like she is going to end up going off as the favorite and it looks tough to keep her out of the exacta.
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 2,3,7,9
TRI: 3,9 / 2,3,7,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 10 Sword Dancer Invitational Stakes G1 (5:47 ET)
#1 Grand Couturier 3/1
#8 Quijano 5/1
#10 Musketier 6/1
#4 Better Talk Now 5/1
#1 Grand Couturier is backing seeking his third win in a row in the Sword Dancer. The six year old comes into the race with a three race losing streak but he won the last two runnings of this race with similar losing streaks. Last out in the Man O? War (G1) he was shuffled back while down along the inside in the early going, came with a six wide run at the quarter pole but did not have enough punch and checked in fifth, beaten four lengths for the top spot. The winner was Gio Ponti, who came back with an impressive win in the Arlington Million (G1) last Saturday. He looks primed and ready in his third start of his current form cycle.
#8 Quijano was a good third in the Man O? War, beaten 2 ? lengths for the top spot. The gelding tracked the early pace, made a good move around the far turn, had to wait briefly for some running room and finished up well. The German bred makes his third start of his current form cycle and second start since coming to the U.S. This guy is a seven time winner at the distance and does not need to move forward much off that effort to be in the mix here.
#10 Musketier was the pacesetter in the Man O? War and held on gamely for the runner up spot while no match for Gio Ponti. The seven year old won the Singspiel (G3) two back at Woodbine at 1 ? miles. He draws an outside post but has enough early speed and there is enough of a run to the turn he won?t get parked out wide. In fact, there really is not much other early speed in here, but there are several in here including #2 Gentleman Chaser and #3 Lauro that have shown enough tactical speed in the last that they could be the pacesetter if the jock decides to send. The seven year is coming in off back to back career tops.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,4,8,10
TRI: 1,8 / 1,4,8,10 / 1,3,4,5,8,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R3: #6 Temore 12/1
R3: #5 Close Encounter 8/1
R5: #4 Captiva Pass 10/1
R7: #2 Munition 8/1
R8: #7 Smart Enuf 8/1
R9: #8 Independent George 8/1
R9: #1 Dubai Gold 15/1
R11: #10 J L Bernstein 12/1
Good luck today!
