Atlanta @ Miami

[MrChristo]

Record (Second Attempt): 34'-31'-1

Miami -3'

This year, Miami: 15-5 after allowing < 85 points.
Atlanta: 2-16 as road 'dogs.
2-14 v. Atlantic Div.
2-11 v. teams who score <91 ppg.
5-13 v. teams who allow <91 ppg.

Miami: 22-8 SU home -> home 1 day rest as fav. (Av. win 5.5)
Atlanta: 4-42 SU!!! v. team in that situation!! (Av. loss 11.2)
0-5 SU (And ATS this number) when total < 180.

Atlanta: 8-25-1 home -> away, back-to-back as 'dog. (Av. loss 11.9)
0-7 in that situation after an ATS win. (Av. loss 19.6!!)
Miami: 9-2 SU v. team in that situation. (Av. win 6.3)
Miami: 11-1 SU as fav v. a team home -> away, back-to-back when total <180. (Av. win 9.1)

Miami 5-1 SU last 6 meetings @ home. (Av. win 7.7)

Good luck all.

 

[MrChristo]

Seattle @ NJ

Seattle @ NJ

I have no idea what the line will end up at here, but I have found NJ -6' and have taken it. (I'm assuming Kidd will be back.)
Even if he doesn't go, I doubt very much the line will drop below 6.

Anyway........

This season.

NJ: 9-2 1 dat rest v. team on 1 day rest.
10-4 after SU loss.
9-1 as 6' - 9 point fav.
5-1 v. Pacific Div.
11-4 revenging loss

NJ: 16-2 SU (14-4 ATS this number) away -> home as 5+ fav 1 day rest. (Av. win 15.7!)
12-3 home fav after 10+ ATS loss. (Av. win 13.1)
12-3 as home 5+ fav v. team off ATS home win. (Av. win 12.5)
13-5 as home 5+ fav v. team home -> away 1 day rest.

Seattle 5-8 away 5+ dog after 10+ SU win. (Av. loss 9.1)

Playing NJ -6'

Also playing Phoenix ML @ 1.25 (-400). I'll risk 2 units to win 1/2 unit.

Phoenix: 26-4 SU home -> home 1 day rest as 5+ fav
Chic: 4-40 SU playing team in that situation.

Chic: 1-29 SU away -> away 5+ dog, 1 day rest!
Pho: 16-2 SU v. team in that situation.
4-54 SU away 5+ dog after 10+ SU loss. (2-50 SU when it was an ATS loss aswell.)
Pho: 22-1 SU v. team in that situation!!

Realistically, the Suns should cover, but there is definate vlaue in the ML....It shouldn't be any higher than 1.10!

 

[MrChristo]

Record (Second Attempt): 36-32'-1

****ing hell!!! Talk about sweating out a 1.25 pop!!

Was absolutely certain the Suns weren't going to get home.

Don't know whether to be pissed off because it was so close, or happy I didn't take the spread.

1' - 1 on the day. Strange to see NJ collapse like that in the 2nd half at home :shrug:

 

[heleanth]

Thanks for your informative write-ups. I went with you on Miami, but laid the points on the Suns. Appreciate your taking the time to share your research. Thanks for doing it and l look forward to your next post.