Auburn Vs Tennessee

[wareagle]

Early line is auburn -1'

This is wierd line for me to stomach. A 2-2 auburn team vs 4-0 rocky topper. What gives? Not one game we have played this indicates that we should be favored over the #7 team in the country. Auburn/Tubbs is an awful favorite against the number. This is the beginning of a brutal stretch for auburn. This week #7, next week #8 arky, and the following week #6 LSU. What other conference in college football could have such a stretch? Auburn hasn't scored a TD against TN since the '97 SECCG. Auburn does have the number 2 ranked D in the country, which needs to play the best of their ability. TN is first in the SEC with 13 sacks and that is something auburn doesn't do well(pass block). I will look for Tn to put all kinds of pressure on Campbell, forcing him into bad decisions much like he played in the usc and GT games. Our staff completely sucked in those two games and they love to be ultra conservative against great teams. However, fat Phil has the same reputation for the vols. Thank goodness we are injury free so far this year. What about the vols? I don't know. Would love some input. There is no O/U set yet but the play seems to be the under with these two coaches and defenses. It seems to me that vegas is trapping many TN bets with this line which makes me raise my eyebrows. Should be a typical smash mouth, hard hitting sec game this weekend. Our special teams is one of the few brightspots we have seen this year. Yost hit a 57 yrd FG and our punter has played real well. This could be the difference.

 

[THE KOD]

wareagle

I hate to tell you but your war eagles are going to be spanked this weekend. Vegas trying to trick us with this line.


KOD

 

[Cie]

I am looking strongly at the Vols in this spot.

GL...............

 

[CWood97]

Third in a line of five tough games for Tennessee, and its on the road. Can't back the Vols in this one. Probably a no play for me.

 

[wareagle]

Exactly scotty! They are wanting and going to get a ton of Tenn money with them catching points.

other leans:

ole miss +13 final score UF 75 OM 65

Bama +10 shula won't have the pressure of playing in Tuscaloser where he can't seem to get a W

Memphis -10 the best memphis team in 50yrs, i'm not kidding either

 

[bamabuck44]

I would have to make this one a no play, hard to get solid read on how this game may go, so pull with your heart, and sit on your wallet. ?, do you have any thoufgts on Troy St +28 vs Huskers, I think that may be the team in state that I play. good luck, Buck.

 

[yak merchant]

I just want to know how either team is going to score. The final score is probably going to be 3-0. Clausen didn't exactly look good against SC. Tenn is going to have hell running against Auburn. And when Auburn can't run the ball Campbell looks terrible. I don't think either team will actually be able to run the ball, so whoever throws the least interceptions will probably win.

 

[Smithhappens]

Clausen 11-0 on the road. Won't change this weekend. Vols easy
Auburn might not score. Which they are used to.



Alabama Usually Beats Us Round November

Thus Auburn

 

[CapstoneAlf]

This is one of those games that Vegas dropped the ball on and trys to psyche people out of betting, i.e. LSU this past weekend. Tennessee will destroy Auburn just like AU's next two opponents will after them. Drop a dime on the Vols.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

You might be just right capstone.

HORNS

 

[Mick Onofrio]

My number:

My number:

Fellas...you don't know me from a hole in the wall and I don't know any of you. I won't get into how I formulate my numbers but I will say this. The Tenn/Aub line is way off. In fact, here are my numbers.

Actual Line: Auburn -2

my line range: Tennessee -3.24 thru Tennessee -12.88
With an average of Tenn -6.84
Factor in Tennessee's Strength of Sched Rank is 3.68 points better thus far.

As you can see I have this line being off in a range of approx. 5-15 points. With this big of a variation gap there is cause for concern. I will also share other lines I have calculated so far today. I usually get about 15 done a day and the go in order of their listing on the board.

Houston at East Carolina
Houston -3
My Numbers: Hou -2.01 thru ECU -2.54
Possible the wrong team is favored and we have a home dog situation. Revenge is a factor for Houston who was beaten at home by ECU 54-48 in a thriller last year. ECU's Strength of Sched (SOS) has been 16.08 points higher thus far this season. With this kid of variation and the fact the games stands all by itself on a Tuesday(a potential to chase a monday night loss) this game is a NO PLAY

Thursday
Miami vs West Virginia
Miami -27
My numbers: Miami -18.35 thru Miami -23.40
With an average of Miami -21.12
The line is off by approx 3.5 - 8.5 points favoring West Virginia.
Good opportunity to catch Miami napping a little as they prepare to travel to Florida State on Oct 11th. They will go up big early in true Hurricane form but will call off the dogs and let the dog hang around just long enough to cover. Both teams coming off a bye. Miami will REALLY be hitting the toughest stretch of their schedule as they travel to Fla St on 10/11, travel to Va Tech on 11/1, then host Tennessee on 11/8 and Syracuse on 11/15.
PLAY ON WVU

I'll skip all the non-sense and say this:
Oregon at Utah: No PLay, Fair Line from Ore -2.03 thru -6.07

Va Tech at Rutgers: No play, Fair from VT -21.08 thru -24.70

Maryland vs Clemson: Play on Clemson, Line variation of Clemson -2.51 thru Mary -3.63 although actual line is coming down fast. And the variation scares me a little so I'll hold off before making this final.

Wisc at Penn St: No Play, fair line from Wisc -.27 thru -5.66

Mich St vs Indiana: No play: Line variation of -7.11 thru -14.69, slight lean on dog.

Minn at Northwestern: No play, line is fair from Minn -8.3 thru -13.99

Virginia at UNC: Slightly favors UNC with a variation of VU -2.77 thru 7.82

Tenn at Auburn: Play on Tenn, line variation from Tenn -3.24 thru 12.88 (avg. 6.84)


So far I have plays on WVU +27 and Tennessee +2
Possibly Clemson +7 and UNC +8 will watch line movement.

More to come as I find time. Just a side note: This system I have been working on for 4 years now looks to play on Underdogs that are receiving too many points. So the purpose is to find the most valuable Dogs. Last week only 2 Favorites came up as plays out of 11 plays. The last you want to do with these numbers is play on a favorite because the line is right on. This system also doesn't become effective until the 3rd-4th week of the season when this year's stats become more of a factor than last year's.

 

[Smokem]

War Eagle-----------
Your breakdown of the two teams and coaches is right on.
The Tenn. passing game seems to be better but Auburn is a much more physical team.
Tenn is coming off the o/t win against South Carolina. Carolina was well coached and Holtz always has them ready.
Fulmer was outcoached again.The Vols had lots of trouble on missed tackles. Vols never play very good ,the week after the Florida game----win or lose.
Tenn seems to play better and get up more , for road games.
Go figure.
Excellent kicking games for both teams!
It should be a tight , low scoring , game .

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hey, Big Man----------Let me hold a dollar!

 

[wareagle]

Well just as i and others expected early money on the vols. Line in now a pick. This game is going to be nothing short of espn classic.

Capstone go back to Melmac or Tuscaloosa, your Tide might want to win a game in Bryant Denney before you pollute my thread "drop a dime on the vols"

I don't think UF and south carolina's defense compares to ours. Tenn will throw the deep ball early and often testing our CBs. I feared USC's offense much more than i do the vols. I know clausen is 11-0 on the road as a starter. What a Stat! That is amazing. All streaks come to an end and hopefully it will be this weekend.

Here is something to look for in the game this weekend. I will promise you that Tubbs will do something so stupid it will make your heads spin. Mark my word if we are kicking off for the second half, watch for an onside kick. Or perhaps a fake punt inside our own 30. It drives me crazy that he will do this. But we have to accept and pray that we catch them sleeping.

BamaBuck, i do like Troy state, but the 1 Defense in the country is the Huskers. roy just doesn't have the size of nebraska. Unfortunately this will be a no play for me as i see it 41-10

 

[hoyt]

My Largest wager of the year will be on Auburn.

I will wait until gametime hopeing to see a line drop.

GL

 

[TDP]

Don't post many games here, but Auburn will win this by at least 7...Not basing this on Tennesee vs. SC, as that was a sandwich game. Basing it on how Auburn is starting to play. Granted, Vanderbilt and Western Kentucky are not Tennessee by any stretch of the imagination, but Auburn is starting to play hungry. They are dangerious saturday, at home, and eager to put early start behind them. Just my opinion, but I will take my chances on Auburn at pk...P.S. The Auburn off coaches have finally put Campbell in a position to be positive, much better play calling and he was very accurate throwing the ball last week (once again, albeit vs WK). Take it for what it is worth to you...GOOD LUCK EVERYONE...

 

[hildog]

What up Wareagle?
Just thought I would chime in with my 2 pennies worth. Very intriguing match-up this weekend. Tubberville and Fulmer are two very similar coaches. Both are great salesman. They can sell their programs and get top notch recruits. Both are terrible in-game coaches with sub-par staffs who have trouble making in-game adjustments. I think the loss of Petrino hurt AU a lot more than most of America thought it would, hence the pre-season national title contender hype, and AU's slide out of the top 25. As far as Auburn's season to date:

Game one USC: Total mis-match, not talent-wise, but coaching wise. I think USC has the best coaching staff in the country with former NFL coach Pete Carrol at the head and great play caller Norm Chow. Their slanting and stunting defensive line calls completely stuffed Auburn. I've never been more disgusted than to watch Auburn come out in the second half and make no adjustments period. Result: L.

Game two GTech: Still reeling from the SC loss, AU had to go up against another former NFL coach in Chan Gailey. Not only could Auburn not figure out how to run or pass block against the slanting and stunting D-line of SC, but we couldn't figure out how to how to beat it with a week's worth of practicing and watching game film from the SC defeat. BAD COACHING!!! Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the job a coaches to put their players in the best positions on the field to get the most out of their talent. Result: L.

Game three Vandy: Finally, our level of talent, size, and strength just overwhelmed poor Vandy. No amount of coaching ineptitude by Auburn would allow Vandy to get the W. One thing I don't understand was why Vandy coaches tried to play pretty much straight-up defense against a team who could overwhelm them physically on the line of scrimmage. Why they didn't play a scheme more like USC and GTech, I don't know. Result: W.

Game four WKentucky: Total domination by Tigers. Result: W.

Game five Tennessee: I look for a very physical, conservative game. Lack of coaching savvy will not hurt the Tigers this weekend as Fulmer is Tubbs equal in that regard. Auburn never plays well in the role of favorite, that's why I'm loving the line drop back to a pick-em. Tennessee should not be ranked as high as they are, and Auburn (at this point in the season) should not ranked as low as they are. I think Vegas knows this if the AP and coaches polls do not. Tough game to call, with coaching staffs, player skills, and talent level all being pretty much equal. Which ever offense can execute better and make the fewest mistakes (i.e. turnovers, penalities) will win the game. Final prediction: Auburn 17, Vols 14.

 

[hossfly]

It looks like it is going to be a close game, but the war eagles are going to come out on top, I think Claussen's road record is going to come to a stop this saturday. Go Auburn:thefinger

 

[volfan]

I predict scores every year for an office thing, have done ok so far. Had TN over MArs 34-24, tn 24-13 over fresno, and tn 21-10 over sc.
I pick TN 17-16 over AU....
This game will be a dog fight and will come down to a stupid play or turnover.
Hope it is Auburn that makes it

 

[wareagle]

Well a very helpful thread with the exception of a few tuscaloosers who are talking out of their ass. These threads are what MJs is all about. I would like to see more input from the vols' side.

Unfortunately, i'm not in the country and won't be until x-mas so i won't get to see the game. Like i said earlier this game should be a classic. AU vs TN used to be one of the biggest rivalries in the SEC. It is great to see this matchup again. Auburn is shuffling around its Oline and secondary witch are the main weak spots, not good. Nevertheless, we will see come sat. I hate to say this but, TN 20-17

 

[Double Two]

This is my take on the game. In capping this game I have look at all the angles and the thing that I believe is the difference maker is the recent play by these teams. Here's what I mean:

UT has had a couple of tough games, @ Florida 9/20 and @ home vs. South Carolina 9/27. They did win both games but had to spend alot of energy in doing so. Now they go to Auburn for their 3rd tough game in a row in what should be a very physical game.

AU has basically had 3 weeks to get ready for this game(off on 9/20 and a light scrimmage vs. Western Kentucky 9/27). Auburn in a must win situation if it is going to have any chance at winning the SEC Title.

I think the Auburn team that was so highly thought of in the pre-season shows up this Saturday. My prediction:

Auburn 24 Tennessee 14

Good Luck All!!!