Georgia Offense vs. Alabama Defense
Georgia's offense has a lot of promising talent. But until it does some damage versus a legitimate opponent, how can anyone truly take this unit seriously? Sure, QB Matt Stafford and company have looked crisp in scoring 80 combined points against a bad Oklahoma State defense and a Division I-AA opponent in Western Carolina. However, in their only outing versus an SEC opponent, South Carolina held the Bulldogs without a touchdown, while Stafford connected on just 19 of 44 pass attempts with an interception. That's why we think Alabama, despite some personnel flaws on the defensive side of the ball, should be able to keep the Bulldog offense in check. The key is to follow the Gamecock's blueprint, which essentially is a bend-but-don't break approach. Like Alabama, South Carolina was overmatched on the perimeter versus Georgia WR's Sean Bailey, Mohamed Massaquoi and Mikey Henderson. So, instead of loading up the box versus the run and taking chances with lots of blitz-packages backed by man-coverage, South Carolina spent more time backed off in cover-2 zone looks. It led to a lot of underneath completions and decent rushing yards on the ground, but Stafford only average 4.8 yards per completion and Georgia converted only three of 18 third-down attempts. Because they are still comparatively inexperienced on offense, the mindset for Alabama's defense should be to force the Bulldogs to sustain long drives without making a mistake.
As it pertains to the defense, coach Nick Saban's biggest adjustment from his days at LSU is the lack of depth along the defensive line. During his days at LSU, Saban's defenses rotated eight guys on-and-off the field, which kept them fresh late in games. It was obvious in the second half versus Arkansas last week that Alabama's defensive linemen were gassed, which was a key contributor to the blown 21-point lead. Saban and his staff will eventually improve the back end of the roster at Alabama, but until then he's forced to deal with a thin defensive front. With this in mind, Georgia needs to make it a point to work Alabama's defensive linemen early in the game by forcing them to rush the passer on more early downs than usual. It also can tire the defensive front by making them chase RB Knowshon Moreno on perimeter runs and screens. The Bulldogs continue to use a two-back rotation between Moreno and Thomas Brown, which helps to keep both set of legs fresh later in games. However, the freshman, Moreno, is clearly the more complete package in terms of power, burst and vision, which is why he's seeing more carries as the Bulldogs' premier back. In fact, the only offensive skill player that stepped up in the losing effort to South Carolina was Moreno, who rushed for 104 yards on 14 carries. After watching Arkansas RB Darren McFadden gash the Alabama run defense for 195 yards on 33 carries, Georgia's coaching staff has to be prepared to turn Moreno loose for the first 25-plus-carry game of his collegiate career.
Alabama Offense vs. Georgia Defense
Much like the situation in Georgia, the Crimson Tide has found their answer at running back in the form of a freshman. So far, Terry Grant's emergence as a difference maker at running back has played a key part in Alabama's early-season success. He was the team's most explosive runner as a true freshman in 2006 but a shoulder injury forced him to redshirt. Now, three games into his redshirt freshman campaign, Grant has already rushed for 403 yards and five touchdowns on 62 carries. Even when his production as a ball carrier is somewhat limited -- like in last week's shootout versus Arkansas -- Grant still makes a difference because the opposing defense has to respect his presence as a homerun threat. That's undoubtedly an element that the Crimson Tide offense was missing in 2006. The Bulldogs are big and strong up the middle versus the run. They have good size at defensive tackle with Jeff Owens and Kade Weston serving as the starters in a four-man rotation, and they also get solid run-support from the strong safety position with Kelin Johnson (ribs), who is expected to return after sitting out last week's game. The unit also is getting solid play from three new starters at linebacker. SLB Brandon Miller is stout versus the run and brings experience as a 260-pound senior. Meanwhile, MLB Dannell Ellerbe and WLB Darius Dewberry continue to improve each game and provide good range in run support. If Alabama is to get Grant untracked on Saturday night, it needs to spread Georgia out with a lot of three-and-four receiver looks in order to neutralize Georgia's size up the middle. The other key is to get blockers out on the second-level in order to harass Ellerbe and Dewberry, who are very athletic but get frustrated when forced to play the game inside a "phone booth."
Not surprisingly, Georgia's defense has been stronger versus the run than the pass so far this season. Coordinator Willie Martinez is doing an outstanding job of molding the inexperienced unit as quickly as possible. However, the Bulldogs need some playmakers to emerge in a hurry after losing its pass-rushing end tandem of Charles Johnson and Quentin Moses to the NFL, along with shutdown CB Paul Oliver to the NFL's supplemental draft. So far this season, none of their replacements has emerged as a consistent difference maker and the unit, as a whole, has failed to notch an interception or a fumble recovery. Additionally, no individual has recorded more than one sack and the defense has just eight combined sacks in three games. DEs Roderick Battle and Kade Weston need to provide more pressure off the edges in order to keep QB John Parker Wilson out of a rhythm in this game. While Wilson lacks ideal arm strength and mobility, he proved in last week's come-from-behind victory that he's capable of distributing the ball effectively to his deep corps of receivers. The Crimson Tide had good success when they opened things up with three-and-four receiver sets, as it allows them to create mismatches versus opposing defensive backfields when D.J. Hall, Matt Caddell, Keith Brown and Mike McCoy are on the field at the same time. While we obviously don't expect Saban to turn his offense into the run-and-shoot, it wouldn't be surprising to see a more aggressive approach than usual in order to create one-on-one mismatches versus Georgia's inexperienced and thin secondary.
Key individual matchup
Alabama RB Terry Grant vs. Georgia WLB Darius Dewberry
Dewberry is still experiencing some growing pains as a first-year starter but his potential is exciting. He is the most athletic of the Bulldog linebackers, which bodes well for his assignment versus the shifty Grant on Saturday night. The good news for Dewberry is that Alabama continues to limit Grant's exposure in the passing game, which means the 6-foot-3, 236-pound sophomore linebacker can focus that much more on stopping the run. Alabama has seen on film that Dewberry still has a tendency to take himself out of plays by running around blocks. So, instead of running Grant away from him, expect the Crimson Tide to target Dewberry by running at him on the weak-side -- and attempting to get a big-body blocker (tight end, fullback or pulling lineman) out on the second-level as much as possible. If Grant follows his blocks correctly, he will have his most success when running to Dewberry's side on Saturday night.
Special Teams
The Crimson Tide return game is their strong suit on special teams and Javier Arenas deserves much of the credit. The sophomore free safety has emerged as a true threat, averaging 28 yards per kickoff return and 15.5 yards per punt return with a long of 69 yards. PT P.J. Fitzgerald is only averaging 39 yards per attempt but five of his 11 punts have landed inside the opponents' 20, and two more have gone for fair catches. His direction skills have been outstanding, which is a big boost for the Alabama defense. This biggest are of concern for the Tide is on field goals, where PK Leigh Tiffin has struggled with his accuracy thus far. Tiffin has connected on just six of his 11 field goal attempts. Two of those misses have come within 40 yards and his long for the season is just 42 yards.
Both programs are dangerous in the return game but Georgia gets the overall edge on special teams because of the consistency of its kickers. Veteran PK Brandon Coutu is off to another fast start having connected on five of his first six field goal attempts, including a long from 44 yards out. PT Brian Mimbs is averaging a respectable 42.7 yards per attempt and has landed five of 13 inside the opponents' 20 yard-line. The Bulldogs are also dangerous in the return game with Mikey Henderson averaging 15.3 yards per punt return and Thomas Brown averaging 27.4 yards per kick return.
Scouts' Edge
Saban's club doesn't have as much talent or depth as Richt's, but so far Alabama is playing much more consistently as a team. Georgia's defense will need to come up with some big plays in order to pull off the road upset against a tough, disciplined and determined Crimson Tide squad in Tuscaloosa. But that would be out of character for the Bulldogs according to what we've seen thus far.
At the end of the day, this game will come down to quarterback play. While he does not possess the mobility or arm strength of Stafford, Wilson gives the Crimson Tide an advantage because of his experience and game-managing ability. Wilson is also blessed with a more complete supporting cast, including RB Grant and a deep corps of receivers with Hall, Caddell, Brown and McCoy. It might be slow-paced and sloppy, but we like Alabama to remain undefeated.
Prediction: Crimson Tide 27, Bulldogs 21
Georgia's offense has a lot of promising talent. But until it does some damage versus a legitimate opponent, how can anyone truly take this unit seriously? Sure, QB Matt Stafford and company have looked crisp in scoring 80 combined points against a bad Oklahoma State defense and a Division I-AA opponent in Western Carolina. However, in their only outing versus an SEC opponent, South Carolina held the Bulldogs without a touchdown, while Stafford connected on just 19 of 44 pass attempts with an interception. That's why we think Alabama, despite some personnel flaws on the defensive side of the ball, should be able to keep the Bulldog offense in check. The key is to follow the Gamecock's blueprint, which essentially is a bend-but-don't break approach. Like Alabama, South Carolina was overmatched on the perimeter versus Georgia WR's Sean Bailey, Mohamed Massaquoi and Mikey Henderson. So, instead of loading up the box versus the run and taking chances with lots of blitz-packages backed by man-coverage, South Carolina spent more time backed off in cover-2 zone looks. It led to a lot of underneath completions and decent rushing yards on the ground, but Stafford only average 4.8 yards per completion and Georgia converted only three of 18 third-down attempts. Because they are still comparatively inexperienced on offense, the mindset for Alabama's defense should be to force the Bulldogs to sustain long drives without making a mistake.
As it pertains to the defense, coach Nick Saban's biggest adjustment from his days at LSU is the lack of depth along the defensive line. During his days at LSU, Saban's defenses rotated eight guys on-and-off the field, which kept them fresh late in games. It was obvious in the second half versus Arkansas last week that Alabama's defensive linemen were gassed, which was a key contributor to the blown 21-point lead. Saban and his staff will eventually improve the back end of the roster at Alabama, but until then he's forced to deal with a thin defensive front. With this in mind, Georgia needs to make it a point to work Alabama's defensive linemen early in the game by forcing them to rush the passer on more early downs than usual. It also can tire the defensive front by making them chase RB Knowshon Moreno on perimeter runs and screens. The Bulldogs continue to use a two-back rotation between Moreno and Thomas Brown, which helps to keep both set of legs fresh later in games. However, the freshman, Moreno, is clearly the more complete package in terms of power, burst and vision, which is why he's seeing more carries as the Bulldogs' premier back. In fact, the only offensive skill player that stepped up in the losing effort to South Carolina was Moreno, who rushed for 104 yards on 14 carries. After watching Arkansas RB Darren McFadden gash the Alabama run defense for 195 yards on 33 carries, Georgia's coaching staff has to be prepared to turn Moreno loose for the first 25-plus-carry game of his collegiate career.
Alabama Offense vs. Georgia Defense
Much like the situation in Georgia, the Crimson Tide has found their answer at running back in the form of a freshman. So far, Terry Grant's emergence as a difference maker at running back has played a key part in Alabama's early-season success. He was the team's most explosive runner as a true freshman in 2006 but a shoulder injury forced him to redshirt. Now, three games into his redshirt freshman campaign, Grant has already rushed for 403 yards and five touchdowns on 62 carries. Even when his production as a ball carrier is somewhat limited -- like in last week's shootout versus Arkansas -- Grant still makes a difference because the opposing defense has to respect his presence as a homerun threat. That's undoubtedly an element that the Crimson Tide offense was missing in 2006. The Bulldogs are big and strong up the middle versus the run. They have good size at defensive tackle with Jeff Owens and Kade Weston serving as the starters in a four-man rotation, and they also get solid run-support from the strong safety position with Kelin Johnson (ribs), who is expected to return after sitting out last week's game. The unit also is getting solid play from three new starters at linebacker. SLB Brandon Miller is stout versus the run and brings experience as a 260-pound senior. Meanwhile, MLB Dannell Ellerbe and WLB Darius Dewberry continue to improve each game and provide good range in run support. If Alabama is to get Grant untracked on Saturday night, it needs to spread Georgia out with a lot of three-and-four receiver looks in order to neutralize Georgia's size up the middle. The other key is to get blockers out on the second-level in order to harass Ellerbe and Dewberry, who are very athletic but get frustrated when forced to play the game inside a "phone booth."
Not surprisingly, Georgia's defense has been stronger versus the run than the pass so far this season. Coordinator Willie Martinez is doing an outstanding job of molding the inexperienced unit as quickly as possible. However, the Bulldogs need some playmakers to emerge in a hurry after losing its pass-rushing end tandem of Charles Johnson and Quentin Moses to the NFL, along with shutdown CB Paul Oliver to the NFL's supplemental draft. So far this season, none of their replacements has emerged as a consistent difference maker and the unit, as a whole, has failed to notch an interception or a fumble recovery. Additionally, no individual has recorded more than one sack and the defense has just eight combined sacks in three games. DEs Roderick Battle and Kade Weston need to provide more pressure off the edges in order to keep QB John Parker Wilson out of a rhythm in this game. While Wilson lacks ideal arm strength and mobility, he proved in last week's come-from-behind victory that he's capable of distributing the ball effectively to his deep corps of receivers. The Crimson Tide had good success when they opened things up with three-and-four receiver sets, as it allows them to create mismatches versus opposing defensive backfields when D.J. Hall, Matt Caddell, Keith Brown and Mike McCoy are on the field at the same time. While we obviously don't expect Saban to turn his offense into the run-and-shoot, it wouldn't be surprising to see a more aggressive approach than usual in order to create one-on-one mismatches versus Georgia's inexperienced and thin secondary.
Key individual matchup
Alabama RB Terry Grant vs. Georgia WLB Darius Dewberry
Dewberry is still experiencing some growing pains as a first-year starter but his potential is exciting. He is the most athletic of the Bulldog linebackers, which bodes well for his assignment versus the shifty Grant on Saturday night. The good news for Dewberry is that Alabama continues to limit Grant's exposure in the passing game, which means the 6-foot-3, 236-pound sophomore linebacker can focus that much more on stopping the run. Alabama has seen on film that Dewberry still has a tendency to take himself out of plays by running around blocks. So, instead of running Grant away from him, expect the Crimson Tide to target Dewberry by running at him on the weak-side -- and attempting to get a big-body blocker (tight end, fullback or pulling lineman) out on the second-level as much as possible. If Grant follows his blocks correctly, he will have his most success when running to Dewberry's side on Saturday night.
Special Teams
The Crimson Tide return game is their strong suit on special teams and Javier Arenas deserves much of the credit. The sophomore free safety has emerged as a true threat, averaging 28 yards per kickoff return and 15.5 yards per punt return with a long of 69 yards. PT P.J. Fitzgerald is only averaging 39 yards per attempt but five of his 11 punts have landed inside the opponents' 20, and two more have gone for fair catches. His direction skills have been outstanding, which is a big boost for the Alabama defense. This biggest are of concern for the Tide is on field goals, where PK Leigh Tiffin has struggled with his accuracy thus far. Tiffin has connected on just six of his 11 field goal attempts. Two of those misses have come within 40 yards and his long for the season is just 42 yards.
Both programs are dangerous in the return game but Georgia gets the overall edge on special teams because of the consistency of its kickers. Veteran PK Brandon Coutu is off to another fast start having connected on five of his first six field goal attempts, including a long from 44 yards out. PT Brian Mimbs is averaging a respectable 42.7 yards per attempt and has landed five of 13 inside the opponents' 20 yard-line. The Bulldogs are also dangerous in the return game with Mikey Henderson averaging 15.3 yards per punt return and Thomas Brown averaging 27.4 yards per kick return.
Scouts' Edge
Saban's club doesn't have as much talent or depth as Richt's, but so far Alabama is playing much more consistently as a team. Georgia's defense will need to come up with some big plays in order to pull off the road upset against a tough, disciplined and determined Crimson Tide squad in Tuscaloosa. But that would be out of character for the Bulldogs according to what we've seen thus far.
At the end of the day, this game will come down to quarterback play. While he does not possess the mobility or arm strength of Stafford, Wilson gives the Crimson Tide an advantage because of his experience and game-managing ability. Wilson is also blessed with a more complete supporting cast, including RB Grant and a deep corps of receivers with Hall, Caddell, Brown and McCoy. It might be slow-paced and sloppy, but we like Alabama to remain undefeated.
Prediction: Crimson Tide 27, Bulldogs 21
