Some of the stuff I've looked at for the early part of the baseball season. Good luck this year, y'all.
-Public perception has Anaheim and New York Mets as two of the most improved teams. Anaheim has a pretty punchless lineup and New York has a good number of guys who struggle against left handed pitching, especially Burnitz.
-Last season Oakland, a young team who had surprising success the year before, really got out of the gate slow and was a good fade early. Minnesota may be in that same position this year, or perhaps Florida or Oakland again.
-Joe Morgan, in my opinion one of the sharpest baseball observers out there, chose Florida and the White Sox as sleeper teams to watch. He also indicated that White Sox, Yankees, Giants and Braves all look like division champions.
-Bullpens are a huge factor in the first part of the season. Pay very close attention to who has rested pens and who needs help. Generally a middle reliever over 50 pitches or a closer over 30 may not be as effective the next day. Pitching on the third consecutive day can also limit effectiveness.
-A pattern that existed last year was dogs being more profitable early while chalk was the better bet towards the end of the season. If course you can't use this unilaterally but it makes some sense since baseball teams often have unpredictable starts but once you get into September, the milk really separates from the fat.
-You have to think that the Royals will be energized by Sweeney's signing. They have very suspect starting pitching but I like their bullpen quite a bit.
-Chalk parlays and favorite run lines are two favorites of a lot of gamblers but be careful with those two. Run lines, especially when an ace is on the hill, are tough because teams usually get up against an ace. Each fave in a chalk parlay still has to be worth it from a value perspective for them to be good plays long term.
-Baltimore had a great spring, but looking at that team they may be the worst collection in the majors. Hargrove is a good enough manager to keep them from 100 losses most likely, but they are really poor.
-I personally feel that this year's Yankees team will take a step backward from last year's. They lost 4/9 of a lineup that won an awful lot of games over the last several years and they seemed to lose quite a bit of defense and team speed over the offseason. They also didn't address their one large weakness, the bullpen. Karsay is a decent addition, but I don't know if he is enough.
-Schilling and Johnson are amazing but at some point the Diamondbacks' age has to become a worry. I will be somewhat surprised if they can stay a step ahead of the Giants.
-Last year four teams stood out early as big moneymakers: Seattle, Cubs, Minnesota and Philadelphia. All four got pitching better than expected and had deep bullpens play very well. Who has a bullpen that could carry a decent rotation to early success this year? Maybe Detroit, Pittsburgh, Minnesota (again) or Boston.
-As far as my personal sleeper teams, I think Boston in the American League and (don't laugh) Pittsburgh in the National League will both be playoff teams. White Sox, A's and Mariners should fill out the A.L. while Phillies, Cards and Giants should fill out the N.L.
-Public perception has Anaheim and New York Mets as two of the most improved teams. Anaheim has a pretty punchless lineup and New York has a good number of guys who struggle against left handed pitching, especially Burnitz.
-Last season Oakland, a young team who had surprising success the year before, really got out of the gate slow and was a good fade early. Minnesota may be in that same position this year, or perhaps Florida or Oakland again.
-Joe Morgan, in my opinion one of the sharpest baseball observers out there, chose Florida and the White Sox as sleeper teams to watch. He also indicated that White Sox, Yankees, Giants and Braves all look like division champions.
-Bullpens are a huge factor in the first part of the season. Pay very close attention to who has rested pens and who needs help. Generally a middle reliever over 50 pitches or a closer over 30 may not be as effective the next day. Pitching on the third consecutive day can also limit effectiveness.
-A pattern that existed last year was dogs being more profitable early while chalk was the better bet towards the end of the season. If course you can't use this unilaterally but it makes some sense since baseball teams often have unpredictable starts but once you get into September, the milk really separates from the fat.
-You have to think that the Royals will be energized by Sweeney's signing. They have very suspect starting pitching but I like their bullpen quite a bit.
-Chalk parlays and favorite run lines are two favorites of a lot of gamblers but be careful with those two. Run lines, especially when an ace is on the hill, are tough because teams usually get up against an ace. Each fave in a chalk parlay still has to be worth it from a value perspective for them to be good plays long term.
-Baltimore had a great spring, but looking at that team they may be the worst collection in the majors. Hargrove is a good enough manager to keep them from 100 losses most likely, but they are really poor.
-I personally feel that this year's Yankees team will take a step backward from last year's. They lost 4/9 of a lineup that won an awful lot of games over the last several years and they seemed to lose quite a bit of defense and team speed over the offseason. They also didn't address their one large weakness, the bullpen. Karsay is a decent addition, but I don't know if he is enough.
-Schilling and Johnson are amazing but at some point the Diamondbacks' age has to become a worry. I will be somewhat surprised if they can stay a step ahead of the Giants.
-Last year four teams stood out early as big moneymakers: Seattle, Cubs, Minnesota and Philadelphia. All four got pitching better than expected and had deep bullpens play very well. Who has a bullpen that could carry a decent rotation to early success this year? Maybe Detroit, Pittsburgh, Minnesota (again) or Boston.
-As far as my personal sleeper teams, I think Boston in the American League and (don't laugh) Pittsburgh in the National League will both be playoff teams. White Sox, A's and Mariners should fill out the A.L. while Phillies, Cards and Giants should fill out the N.L.
