Hope everyone’s off to a hot start.. i actually got going in spring training. I have not told anyone that without getting laughed at, called versions of dumb, labeled a sports betting junkie, etc.
However, went 17-3-4 (tried to avoid pushes with run lines but only 1 book I use offered more than ML’s.
Anyhow, its not any sort of predictor or tool to use for long term team success, but you do get a jump on the relative price of each club. Example - the tigers, pirates, guardians, few more got hot and its carried over. The marlins offense looked just awful- thats carried over. Starting pitchers who get hot in march tend to carry it into april - may. Like jared Jones (pit rookie) as an example.
Anyway, will start posting plays and the 3-4 teamers again… figured no one would care about my cactus league plays.
Some observations -
I’m really avoiding the rich favorites (-140 or higher) . Not necessarily a play on the dog, but friday the rays were like -180 at colorado… their offense isnt built like april - julys rays in ‘23, no way they should be that expensive in a crazy ballpark. That was a HEARTBREAKER but a great game. Dodgers -185 at chi cubs too… with miller vs hendricks, on a day with a 20 mph wind blowing out at wrigley? Lol.
The cheaper favs are where its at - -135 and <
So it doesnt matter who the teams are generally speaking, the -190s and -250s i’m either playing it live if it gets cheap, or looking at the dog +1.5 or +2.5 (better if they trail early)
In game overs AGAIN are my fav plays. I stalk it until the # gets absurd… even if high scoring. The cubs / dodgers were at 6-2 in the 4th with an 11.5. Then after the dodgers got 3 in the 5th, it was 6-5 and i got 13.5 at -125 mid 6th. Those numbers were just wrong, not sure how else to put it. Got a 5.5 in balt / pit 2-1 , 6th inning, with both starters who had been electric at the end of their outtings.
the weird part about Sprng ball was no live markets. Made me think ‘maybe’ its just as easy pregame?
Hit a 4-teamer today, the phils were a more expensive fav than i liked, but in a parlay obviously u can eat the price to a degree. Phils, orioles, toronto and cubs +1.5. +1056.
However, went 17-3-4 (tried to avoid pushes with run lines but only 1 book I use offered more than ML’s.
Anyhow, its not any sort of predictor or tool to use for long term team success, but you do get a jump on the relative price of each club. Example - the tigers, pirates, guardians, few more got hot and its carried over. The marlins offense looked just awful- thats carried over. Starting pitchers who get hot in march tend to carry it into april - may. Like jared Jones (pit rookie) as an example.
Anyway, will start posting plays and the 3-4 teamers again… figured no one would care about my cactus league plays.
Some observations -
I’m really avoiding the rich favorites (-140 or higher) . Not necessarily a play on the dog, but friday the rays were like -180 at colorado… their offense isnt built like april - julys rays in ‘23, no way they should be that expensive in a crazy ballpark. That was a HEARTBREAKER but a great game. Dodgers -185 at chi cubs too… with miller vs hendricks, on a day with a 20 mph wind blowing out at wrigley? Lol.
The cheaper favs are where its at - -135 and <
So it doesnt matter who the teams are generally speaking, the -190s and -250s i’m either playing it live if it gets cheap, or looking at the dog +1.5 or +2.5 (better if they trail early)
In game overs AGAIN are my fav plays. I stalk it until the # gets absurd… even if high scoring. The cubs / dodgers were at 6-2 in the 4th with an 11.5. Then after the dodgers got 3 in the 5th, it was 6-5 and i got 13.5 at -125 mid 6th. Those numbers were just wrong, not sure how else to put it. Got a 5.5 in balt / pit 2-1 , 6th inning, with both starters who had been electric at the end of their outtings.
the weird part about Sprng ball was no live markets. Made me think ‘maybe’ its just as easy pregame?
Hit a 4-teamer today, the phils were a more expensive fav than i liked, but in a parlay obviously u can eat the price to a degree. Phils, orioles, toronto and cubs +1.5. +1056.
