Baseball Moneylines or runlines?? First timer here

[34399]

I'm a first time baseball bettor, I need advise...

I bet baseball everyday, picking around 1 to 5 games a day, I always pick the home teams. Almost always they are favorite, often times the moneyline is around -120, -180, even up to -220. Now, should I just play the Moneyline for all my plays and not concern myself with the runline because through a course of a season, there are a lot of 2-1, 6-5, and 4-3 games, especially because I pick the home teams and if the home team is ahead lets say 3-2 at the end of the top of the ninth, the game is over. However, picking the home team that is a big favorite, they often win by more than one point also.......SOOOO, what I'm trying to ask....should I bother with selecting which games I should put on the runline on if the odds are huge like -180 or -200 or would it be just safer to just play every single game on the moneyline???

I would greatly appreciate all your responses, thank you.

 

[34399]

...one more thing....I ONLY bet on HOME TEAMS....just so you guys know. I know if I pick the runline and the game goes extra innings, almost always, my runline play will lose cause once the home team scores one run, the game is over.....unless on those rare occasions, a man is on base and the guy hits a homer. Just wanted to mention this to you guys when determining what advise you guys are going to give me. Because I only bet on home teams, I'm guessing you guys will lean towards telling me to stick with Moneyline plays all the time, but I might be wrong. Anyways, I'll shut up now and wait for any opinions, thanks.

 

[fletcher]

if you are going to play runlines with home teams get ready to sign up for food stamps.

 

[KotysDad]

Personally.... IF I choose the runs line over the money line it will be in games with the higher totals. The probability of a 1-run game is less likely in a game with a higher total (theoretically). If the empirical data show otherwise, then so be it. Short run data.

If you want to make it simple and think about flipping a fair coin, then look at the probability of flipping a coin 7 times and getting exactly 4 heads and 3 tails . This comes to .273

Now look at the probability of flipping a coin 11 times and getting exactly 6 heads and 5 tails. This probability is .225

If the total is low, you are better off betting the money line. Of course, some people will say never bet the runs line, but its a matter of choice.

 

[Neemer]

At least you won't have to worry about playing too long! I could even name ya a few in here that have used this strategy for every sport. I can also tell you that their records speak for themselves. Betting home favorites with large ML's will send you straight to the welfaree office. If you are stuck on a system that you continue to play each and every day, then take the away dogs and you'll get to hang around a little bit longer....

Just look at it this way. If it were that easy, don't ya think all the offshores and casinos would be broke?

 

[shmuly]

i would back neemer up here ....If you just take home favorites blindly ...
-falling right into vegas' hands ..

but im assuming that you only AFTER would you check if its a home team or not , abnd then bet accordingly ....
would like to hear the reasoning for this
-never heard of this before

 

[34399]

I don't bet every home team, I only select certain home teams I think will win. If half the home teams win that day, hopefully I pick most of the ones that do.

 

[TDP]

I play mostly favorites and some runlines. If I feel the favorite has a decent shot at controlling the game I will lay the 1.5 runs. It is pretty much like everything else, be selective with run lines and they can add to the bottom line. In my opinion moneylines are even a good form of moneymanagement when used properly. Good luck.........

 

[34399]

So the safest money management in baseball is to just stick with the moneyline on every game?

 

[TDP]

34399, I meant to say that runlines are a form of moneymanagement if used properly. I am sure I will get some opposite view points on this. I believe if you have a big favorite that you cap out as potentially controlling a game, then I had rather lay 1.5 runs at say -110 instead of the moneyline at say -220. I think most games should probably be played with the moneyline, but a few should also be played using the run lines. Just my opinion. GOOD LUCK

 

[BigDog]

I am in close agreement with TDP. Run Lines on heavy favorites are the way to go, weather home or not. I've seen this to be true. No system is finite, and good judgement and experiance always comes in to play. I would be leery of anyone who said to always stay away from runlines...as I would be if someone said to always bet runlines. 9 times out of 10, the -1.5 runs will NOT affect a heavy favorite (-160,-190,-240, etc.)That is what we call a previously proven theorem.

Good luck either way.

 

[34399]

9 out of 10 times??? Maybe your right about all the teams in the majors away and at home, but I calculated the top teams who are heavy favorites, well most of them heavy favs, and how much percentage they win by compared to one run games and 2 or more run games. and the runline would have been good only around 71% of the time, that's like 29% of the wins would become losses with the runline....which would be disastrous. My calculations might be off though. I'll just stick to the moneyline just to be safe and instead of playing the runline on -220 favs, I might just lay off of it, depending how i feel.

 

[BigDog]

You take every heavy favorite(at -150 or better)for the next 7 days (like I have done in previous posts in Batter's Up, and you might have a total of 30 games. You won't see the favorite win by only one run more than 3 or 4 times. Test it yourself as I did and you will have a more valuable opinion. It won't be anywhere near 25%.