BASON's NCAAF

[BASON]

Will keep all non-Maryland plays in this thread. I tend to do better late in the season and in bowls, so if I start off cold I may take a few breaks.

Not a very exciting slate for tomorrow but here is what I am looking at:

Nebraska TT Ov - still waiting on a number, but I have seen 30.5 listed. I am a little worried about their new QB, but I like the new OC and I do not think Northwestern is going to be very good this year. Make or break year for Frost so I expect them to put up some points.

UTEP + - I simply like them getting points at home. This is a program that is getting better.

Hawaii + - Sorry, but not way Vandy should be a 10 point favorite over just about anyone. Don't know much about Hawaii, but they can't be that bad.


Will do a little more work and post what I played in the morning. I may just play the Nebraska TT and then do a dog teaser with a few teams. Don't like risking much on these early games as there is just too much uncertainty.

 

[arrow]

Hawaii, new coach Chang former qb there. Cuboard is bare, many kids transferred out of the program. Vandy will have no problem running the ball vs this D-line

 

[BASON]

Thanks Arrow, I am going to lay off since there is no way I am laying that many points with Vandy.

I put two plays in this morning:

Nebraska TT Ov31.5 - Not in love with this number, but think Nebraska will put some points on the board. I still think they are in trouble for the season and Frost will likely be gone, but this is also a play against Northwestern. I love Fitzgerald as a coach, but he just can not get the players there.

UTEP +105 - Really do not see how N. Texas should be a road favorite. I think UTEP is the better team so we are getting a great price at home.

 

[BASON]

I always say coaching matters and there is not better example of that in this Nebraska game. Scott Frost is just a terrible head coach, no other way to put it. Completely out-coached in this game. No matter how this game ends he should be gone.

 

[BASON]

For some action, two team 7 point teaser:

Purdue +10.5
West Va +14.5

 

[BASON]

Will come back with another 7 pointer for tonight:

Illinois +8.5
Duke -2

 

[BASON]

I put this 7 pointer in for tomorrow:

Arkansas +.5
Oregon +24

I like Arkansas tomorrow. I am using them many ways.

 

[BASON]

A winner tonight, and another where we needed the points, but I really do not like Bielema as a coach. He blew that game. When the other team can not move the ball you go up by 4.

 

[BASON]

Sorry I am a little late posting this. I played this as soon as it came out at a lower number but I will post it at what I played it again at early this morning:

Alabama -19.5 -125

I like this at anything under 21. I will have more later, but I will believe the TX hype when I see it. I think Bama will just overwhelm them .

I also just played Memphis -6 -116

 

[BASON]

Adding:

TN Ov 64.5

I was a little hesitant to play this as I thought the line was low, but I am hitting it anyway. The game was 41-34 last year and both teams put up points in the opener. I think we see another game where each team puts up 30+.

I think that is about it. I will also follow Bobby with the ND play at -20 and may consider a play on GA Southern +23.5.

 

[BASON]

Alabama simply getting outplayed and outcoached. Have to give some credit to this Texas defense. Gary Patterson can coach. Bama may still win this game but they have some issues on offense.

 

[BASON]

I do not love a lot on this large card this week. First game in was:

Ohio State -18 -118

I have a friend who's son plays for Wisconsin so I try to watch all their games, which honestly, can be tough at times. Year after year this offense struggles to throw the ball and I simply do not see them scoring enough to stay with Ohio State. They will try to run, run and run to keep OSU off the field but I simply do not think they can do it for 4 quarters.

I have a small play on Georgia State ML for tonight as I think they are the better team.

Thinking about UNC, but not sure I trust them but ND's offense is really bad.

Tommy, need you to talk me into Arkansas!! I know their defense is not great but A&M can't move the ball on offense. I think they can win this game.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

Tommy, need you to talk me into Arkansas!! I know their defense is not great but A&M can't move the ball on offense. I think they can win this game.[/QUOTE]

From Jason to Jason.....I will be flying there tomorrow and sitting in section C137 row 11....I am pumped. Here is my take....

I really love Arkansas in this game, but I just can't pull the trigger for fear of double let down in spirit and monetarily. I can't begin to tell you how bad our fans dislike the Aggie fans and their terrible "yell Leaders" dressed in those awful brown suits. They are the most annoying fan base outside of Ohio State I have ever seen.

1) Everybody and their Mother knows the Hogs secondary is suspect. We get one guy back this week, and that should help a ton. The best thing we have going is that A&M does not have a very dynamic QB in my opinion to expose this. The rest of the defense will scheme and find a way to get pressure and make QB hurry to offset weak coverage by CBs and safety.

2) I can't even begin to tell you how much Coach Pittman is adored by the fan base and the players. They will run through a wall for him, and that is huge for a game where we have lost like the last 7 of 8 against these clowns. Our guys will give it all they have on Saturday for sure.

3) I am not as concerned about a "look ahead" to Alabama next week as this game is just as important. We had our "lay a turd game" last week when the best offensive mind in football made us look bad.

4) This is supposed to be neutral site...60-40 Aggies is the norm, but we do travel well and loudly.

5) I love the line going from A&M -2.5 to -1.5

6) We have a HUGE advantage at QB....Last week we did not run him near as much, and I think that was game planned for health. This week there will be a lot of QB runs for 5+ yards. He is sneaky quick and a bruiser. Be on the lookout for gadget type plays as well, shuffle pass, end around, double pass with Malik Hornesby in at WR (backup QB). Maybe not your fake punt/reverse extreme but lots of chicanery.

7) RBs is a toss up, but we have 3 that can all play and save energy for the 4th quarter as needed. Rocket Sanders quietly in top 5 in nation.

8) Our WRs suck...our TE [NODE="7"]Visitor Messages[/NODE] Trey Knox is converted WR to TE...he is only weapon in passing game unless we get lucky or more healthy.

9) This is the biggest factor in game....OL...Coach Pittman is the best OL coach in the nation and made Georgia really dominate when there at OL. See [NODE="2"]Forum[/NODE] above...these guys are usually the smartest players on the field. They have been with Coach enough now to know the system. This is where I think we will bore the shit out of anybody watching and run run run so the clock will run run run. This will frustrate the opponent and wear them down. We are deep there and healthy for once. This is our backbone in my opinion and I think Coach will have these guys ready and drinking the Kool Aide.

With all of this being said, I would bet Arkansas but I will be happy enough with no funds pending to get a win as I doubt it ends up being more than a 1 point spread. The buzz around our program has not been like this in years so hopefully we can get one on Saturday. I am really scared of the speed and talent at WR for A&M vs our secondary. I just hope to keep the ball away from them as long as possible. I also hope Coach has talked penalties as so far we have been a tad sloppy there.

Did I mention I can't stand the Aggie fan base....ugggggghhh!!!

Good Luck and Ho Hogs!!!

 

[BASON]

Awesome, thanks my friend. I will bet them and be rooting for them. Awesome game to go to. I considered a trip to Ann Arbor as a friend has 2 kids there and is going to the game, but just could not make it happen. Plus, I really do not think MD will win!

Safe travels and best of luck!!

 

[LonghornMM]

Nice write up, Tommy. I am definitely pulling for the Hogs Saturday night. I'm right there with you. I absolutely cannot stand aggy. They are beyond annoying and weird. IMO the worst/most annoying/obnoxious fan bases are Ohio State, LSU, a&m and Alabama.

 

[BASON]

Ohio State was the savior last week. I also bought the Arkansas game up so ended up not being a bad week. Playing a couple dogs this week:

Tulsa +10.5 -119

Tulsa has a great history in this series covering the spread, so I will take the points with them at home once again.

Kentucky +7.5 -124

This team continues to get no respect. They tend to play great on the road so I am happy to take the points with them in what I expect will be a close game.

I want to take Iowa +10.5 but have not pulled the trigger as I just do not trust them to score, but Michigan is not as good as their ranking.

 

[BASON]

I am sure I will live t0 regret it but I did play:

Iowa +10.5 -108

Hard to ignore their history at home as a dog against top 5 opponents. Not only do they cover, but they tend to win. Plus, I was not impressed with Michigan at all last week. If Iowa can generate any kind of offense I think they will cover and even have a chance for the upset.

Mr. Shelby, what is the word on your Arkansas boys this week. I am tempted to take the 17 but little worried about their pass defense.

 

[BASON]

All I know is that Big Ten officiating is absolutely fucking awful. Every game I watch they are pathetic. The crew in the Michigan game with the long hair woman is the worst in the game and the officiating in this MD game is just as bad. Didn't think it could get much worse after last week, but I was wrong. Total embarrassment. Becoming the NFL.

 

[BASON]

Could have been a great week, but I had to play Iowa. Never again. That team has the offense of high school team. Striking how bad some of these Big Ten offenses are.

Already see a few a like for next week. Will watch some lines closely but should have some early ones up.

 

[BASON]

This one jumped out at me right away:

Mississippi State -6.5 -118

Now, I know this line jumped most places, but this is where I played it at yesterday. Sorry, I did not get it posted sooner. If I were playing it right now I would still play it at -6.5 -145 because I do not mind buying points, but I know some do. I have to agree with Tommy on this one, so I really do not think the line will matter much but I always want a line I am comfortable with and do not mind paying for it. I have had this discussion many times in here and with others, but I know for a fact that buying points has saved and/or made me a lot of money over the years. I'm also primarily a soccer player, so you get used to laying larger vig.