BC Juvenile

[Valuist]

Looks like a three horse race between Sky Mesa, Toccet and Vindication. A couple others like Kafwain and Wando could be sleepers. The best figures and pattern goes to Toccet, who won the Champagne w/a Beyer of 97. He doesn't need the lead and he has improved every race. The most visually impressive horse has been Vindication, who spotted the field about 5 lengths at the break, raced wide and just inhaled the field in the Ky Cup Juvenile. It was very impressive visually, but the knock is the competition wasn't strong and the second place finisher, Private Gold, was buried by Sky Mesa in the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. Sky Mesa is a perfect 3 for 3 and has beaten some nice horses in Lone Star Sky, Pretty Wild and Zavata. I suspect Sky Mesa will be the favorite here. Kafwain had a nice race to win the Norfolk but he only won by a nose and a recent Mdn grad, Listen Indy, was only a length behind. Zavata hasn't run past 7f but looked very impressive at Sar. He had a bit of a rough trip losing to Sky Mesa but is unproven at middle distances.

My odds:

Sky Mesa 5-2
Vindication 3-1
Toccet 4-1
Zavata 6-1
Kafwain 8-1
Wando 10-1
all others 4-1

 

[SeattleSlew]

Liked Toccet until he drew the far outside post......at this elongated distance, that's a big ouch!

This race is begging for a big long shot...
One of the Aidan O'Brien shippers (although it's guesswork) might be the ticket..

SLEW

 

[Valuist]

Slew-

Hold that Tiger could be interesting. He was last in a field of 14 220 yards from the finish line and won in his last race. He's a half brother to Belmont winner Editor's Note so he's bred to handle dirt. On the negative side, the field was bunched at the wire, so you really have to wonder what he beat. And this isn't an easy spot to make your dirt debut. Last year I believe Johannesburg had run on dirt at Lingfield where they have an all-weather track. I remember being higher on him last year than O'Brien's horses this year.

 

[SeattleSlew]

Yeah I was a lot higher on Johannesburg last year.....(was my best win of the day). This field seems very murky, at best. Whywhywhy scares me at the distance, but I think he's the best form-wise...

SLEW

 

[Valuist]

You're right about Toccet. The 14 post is enough for me to write him off. His connections can't be too happy.

 

[Valuist]

The UK press is reporting Sky Mesa is out w/a leg injury.

 

[hoss]

SKY MESA, 3-1 morning line favourite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, has been ruled out of Saturday?s Arlington race after sustaining a leg injury.

Trainer John Ward discovered the Pulpit colt to be uncomfortable in the barn on Friday morning and, after examining Sky Mesa, it was discovered he had a strain of his right front leg.

Ward, who had campaigned Sky Mesa through an unbeaten sequence leading into the Juvenile, said: "It's very disappointing but we knew straight away that something was wrong. Hopefully it is just a bad strain or a wrench."

It was fortunate for Ward and his wife Donna that the injury was detected early because the colt would have been treated by Bute later on Friday, medication which would almost certainly have masked the injury.

The Wards noticed the injury after removing Sky Mesa's leg wraps.

Some filling was detected in the leg but X-rays taken on Sky Mesa showed there were no fractures.

from Racing Post

 

[Valuist]

Hoss-

What is your opinion of O'Brien's 2 year olds for the Juvenile? With the defection of Sky Mesa and Toccet getting the 14 post, their chances are definitely better than they were a couple days ago. Tomahawk back on 6 days rest following a Trans-Atlantic flight seems to be pushing it. But Hold That Tiger may like the added distance, it seems.

 

[hoss]

Valuist, I've got to say I'm not too keen on any of them!

Tomahawk had a hard race last weekend when runner up in a valuable race - it was very strongly fancied that day by some shrewd judges but got floored by a horse that was 50/1 in the morning. I think it would be an incredible performance to run that race, travel this far + run what would have to be it's best race yet.

The odd thing for me is that Mick Kinane (usually an excellent judge) has chosen to ride this one over Hold That Tiger. The latter won a top quality race in France last time out + the jockey (keiren Fallon) seems confident + thinks it wil be well suited to the US style of racing. BUT - he only has 3 rides, the unfancied Islington, + Golan, which he says is his best chance of a winner.
I can't see him riding 2 winners...

Van Nistelrooy was meant to be a wonder horse but hasn't really cut the mustard yet.

As for me - I'm looking for vindication....

good luck
hoss

 

[Valuist]

Vindication was extremely visually impressive in his win; the negatives are his huge move was accomplished against a very weak stakes field. But Baffert is high on him and he's a pretty good judge of talent. Whywhywhy from the rail could be very tough here also; he may have some distance limitations; being by a horse who was strictly a sprinter. He ran very fast but the horse he just beat in the fast time race was trounced by Toccet in the Champagne. Zavata was supposed to be a monster...until he got beat. He hasn't trained very well recently so his stock is down now. But I wouldn't be completely shocked if he ran a big race.

 

[Myron]

I kind of like Whywhywhy.