BC/Navy - Am I Missing Something?

[BigSlick]

I'm in a bowl pool where you only have to pick the winner, but must rank that winner based on the total number of bowl games (#1 the least likely to win). BC was my second highest pick, above all others with the exception of CMU. That means that, in my opinion, BC is a bigger favorite than others such as LSU, OSU Louisville and several others.

I keep looking at the schedules and stats and just can't come up with a reason to lay off BC. Is the line based on both team's last last games? I suppose, but that's not what I care about.

I cap games based on a simple assumption and then analyze further from there: who wins both lines of scrimmage. In this game, its not even close - Navy is way out of its league. I know Navy is a feel good story with a disciplined option attack, but they can't expect to press a 1 deminsion attack against one of the top run defenses in the country or expect to play on the other side of scrimmage against possibly the best Oline in college.

As the Navy defense struggles to contain QB Ryan (a pretty good NFL prospect) and Gonzales, look for the BC offense to press the running game with one of the best O lines, year in and year out. BC will pull away by more than 20 by the end of the 3rd period and a 1 deminsional option attack just won't be able to back door this one.

I respect Navy and the way they've played the last 2 years or so, but to have them as a 7 point dog against vastly superior talent on both sides of the line of scrimmage and play makers is a crime.

I played BC -7 pretty large.
Good luck.

 

[3 Seconds]

I'm in a bowl pool where you only have to pick the winner, but must rank that winner based on the total number of bowl games (#1 the least likely to win). BC was my second highest pick, above all others with the exception of CMU. That means that, in my opinion, BC is a bigger favorite than others such as LSU, OSU Louisville and several others.

I keep looking at the schedules and stats and just can't come up with a reason to lay off BC. Is the line based on both team's last last games? I suppose, but that's not what I care about.

I cap games based on a simple assumption and then analyze further from there: who wins both lines of scrimmage. In this game, its not even close - Navy is way out of its league. I know Navy is a feel good story with a disciplined option attack, but they can't expect to press a 1 deminsion attack against one of the top run defenses in the country.

As the Navy defense struggles to contain QB Ryan (a pretty good NFL prospect) and Gonzales, look for the BC offense to press the running game with one of the best O lines, year in and year out. BC will pull away by more than 20 by the end of the 3rd period and a 1 deminsional option attack just won't be able to back door this one.

I respect Navy and the way they've played the last 2 years or so, but to have them as a 7 point dog against vastly superior talent on both sides of the line of scrimmage and play makers is a crime.

I played BC -7 pretty large.
Good luck.

Coaching Change for BC probably has a little something to do with it.

BC has been horrible away from home, while Navy is 5-0 ATS.

I like BC as well.....but just sayin....

 

[BigSlick]

Yeah, I guess the coaching change matters to some. I know O'Brien was well liked by his players. That being said, I hope that the coaching change is the reason because the D coordinator Spaziani (sp?) is the interim coach on this one. CMU didn't seem to skip a beat and ask yourself how many times does a coordinator take over as the head coach for a bowl game and end up making a case for a head coaching job (eaither at the currentschool or somewhere else)?

And as support for my prospective, here's a little exerpt from ESPN on the game:

"The Eagles (9-3) don't really have a lineman that big, but the starters on the offensive line do average 306 pounds. Navy's left defensive end Tye Adams is listed at 225.

The same discrepancy exists on the other side of the ball, a big problem for the Midshipmen's running game, which averages a nation-best 327.4 yards per game."

 

[Corley1011]

I also jus played BC -7 pretty large too:toast:

 

[3 Seconds]

Yeah, I guess the coaching change matters to some. I know O'Brien was well liked by his players. That being said, I hope that the coaching change is the reason because the D coordinator Spaziani (sp?) is the interim coach on this one. CMU didn't seem to skip a beat and ask yourself how many times does a coordinator take over as the head coach for a bowl game and end up making a case for a head coaching job (eaither at the currentschool or somewhere else)?

And as support for my prospective, here's a little exerpt from ESPN on the game:

"The Eagles (9-3) don't really have a lineman that big, but the starters on the offensive line do average 306 pounds. Navy's left defensive end Tye Adams is listed at 225.

The same discrepancy exists on the other side of the ball, a big problem for the Midshipmen's running game, which averages a nation-best 327.4 yards per game."

I agree with ya, but BC already hired a new head coach, some Packer assisant, so there is no win one for Joe Schmoe here.

 

[BigSlick]

Exerpts from other articles:


"Navy has rushed for nearly 4,000 yards, but is without leading rusher Adam Ballard (792 yards), who broke his right leg against Army on Dec. 2. "

"The Eagles, who ranked 13th in the country against the run by allowing only 90.1 yards per game, don't anticipate changing their gameplan.

''You have to play good, sound defense, run to the ball and gang tackle,'' BC linebacker Jolonn Dunbar said.

Dunbar anchored that run defense by recording a team-high 78 tackles.

However, Navy's dependence on the ground game should negate the Eagles' ability to intercept passes. BC finished with 21 for the season - tied for the third-highest total in the country - and have recorded at least two interceptions in seven straight games."

 

[clark]

MY VIEW

MY VIEW

navy has won 7 of 9 in series for what its worthbut haven't played since 02. ryan is from around here and was able to watch him play quite a few times in high school as well at bc! has pro prospect written all over him even with only gonzales as only decent wideout! bc has 2 good backs who run as well as catch the ball, superior o line size and are being coached by d coor. spaziani. who with this much time should have team well versed against wishbone! i really respect navy coach for what he has done for program but even he would admit its tough to beat big programs without being able to throw ball! bigger and better atheletes can stop his offense and now with injuries to major contributors navy will be boston colleges army! i feel the same with this game as i did with rutgers ! B.C. - WHATEVER!!!! adlock:

 

[Fluidoz]

Actually the info. I was looking at has BC winning 4 of the last 5. But Navy has covered 4 out of 5. Getting 30 points in '02, 18.5 in '01, 18 in '00, 7 in '99, and 14 in '98. Good Luck All.

 

[c20916]

In other threads on here about bowl pool picks, UCLA and BC were two of the major consesus picks, in my pool out of 23 people only 5 picked FSU ATS, and I believe it's similar for BC, that's not to say Navy will cover, just past history has shown at least in the pool I am in, the larger consenus games seem to always lose. take that Fwiw

 

[Unicorn]

Not sure if the Army game is any indication but Navy really struggled to move the ball when Ballard went down. He was vital to the option game as he could gash the middle of a defense if given the dive, as he was a big, strong runner with good speed. There seemed to a big drop-off in his replacement, as the QB had to carry a lot of the road.

I think the earlier post concerning BC's coaching change is reason for uncertainty...that and the armed forces usually do quite well in bowls.

But, Navy struggles against the pass, and I think BC;s interim coach will let Ryan throw it all over the place.

Good luck

 

[edludes]

Three or four weeks ago when these teams started preparing for this game,I would have to think BC would be pretty uninspired and unmotivated by the prospect of playing a service academy team.How hard do you think they are studying Navy's attack.How psyched do you think they, BC,were when they went to bed this week.Do you think they had the "butterflys" of nervousness in their gut as they thought of this game,this opponent?I don't.BC played with much stronger competition than this this year and there is a real danger that they don't come in to this game mentally ready to play.Its all in the preparation leading up to the game.you just don't wake up on game day knowing the other teams offense or defense,you have to do a lot of film study and practice work against that stuff and learen what you will be seeing on the field BEFORE the game.Again the opponent can't scare BC anymore than the people in the office pool,and with the coaching change there is a good chance for a flat unprepared looking BC team today.

 

[grspancho]

i think bc should had enough time to prepare for navy"s run offense. i like bc -7

 

[2ndguesser]

anyone think BC goes into this game wishing they were in a BIGGER game. everyone knows what usually happens when a team doesn't really want to be in the bowl that they are in. that being said, I like BC too, but just throwin' that out there.:shrug: :toast: here's to a happy new year!

 

[Obscured1]

Three or four weeks ago when these teams started preparing for this game,I would have to think BC would be pretty uninspired and unmotivated by the prospect of playing a service academy team.How hard do you think they are studying Navy's attack.How psyched do you think they, BC,were when they went to bed this week.Do you think they had the "butterflys" of nervousness in their gut as they thought of this game,this opponent?I don't.BC played with much stronger competition than this this year and there is a real danger that they don't come in to this game mentally ready to play.Its all in the preparation leading up to the game.you just don't wake up on game day knowing the other teams offense or defense,you have to do a lot of film study and practice work against that stuff and learen what you will be seeing on the field BEFORE the game.Again the opponent can't scare BC anymore than the people in the office pool,and with the coaching change there is a good chance for a flat unprepared looking BC team today.

Nice write-up By no means am i taking Navy, but BC-7 looks too easy. BC was 1 win away from the orange bowl, now they are playing Navy??? I don't think they were focused in there preparatons for Navy, and they very well might come out flat. But on paper they get it done.

 

[edludes]

It not about having enough time,its about respecting/fearing your opponent enough to believe that they can beat you.I think BC is pretty sure they can't lose to Navy,and I know they'd rather be playing someone else.When you play football,an odd mental transformation starts taking place a day or two before the game when you really want to win/play well.Its called a lot of things,getting psyched,putting your game face on,...and it happens naturally,you can't try and make it happen if you don't have some respect for your opponent,ie if you don't think that they can beat you.If you don't have that you are Clark Kent,you never change into Superman.You can't just decide to do these things and feel this way on game day.

 

[3 Seconds]

Just some more tidbits...takin from another site:

What people seem to forget is that Spaziani has faced Navy before (again, he's been here 8 years as the DC). Let's check those games out for a minute. Spaziana started coaching at Boston College back in 1999 and that year he beat Navy 14-10. The following year, Spaziani put together another gem against Navy beating them 48-7 early in the season. The following year, Spaziani's defense won the game once again beating Navy 38-21. Finally, the last time they played against Navy, Spaziani's defense held them to 21 points and Boston College won 46-21.

 

[cooz3]

have to take motivation into account as well..its an intangible often overlooked but i know that going to North carolina to play Navy was not exactly what this BC program was looking towards...Navy plays hard no matter the opponent or score so if they for some reason start to get some confidence early it could be trouble...BC however always seems to show up for bowl games no matter who the opponent or where which is a testament to the coaching and leadership ...they have an advantage on both offensive and defensive lines so they should be able to run and stop the run..but I have seen this team give up some yards on the ground this year and lose to teams they should beat...and if you look at the commom opponent in Duke this year Navy's D actually statistically speaking was just as good as BC...

all that being said BC is the better team on paper and has better players but if they think they are just going to sleep walk through this game because Navy is thier opponent they will be in for a rude awakening..

cooz

 

[Okie]

Navy

Navy

I watch Navy every year against ND.

FWIW I believe that this is the poorest team the Midshipmen have produced in recent memory. Lay the wood with BC or lay off.

OB

 

[BigSlick]

Just some more tidbits...takin from another site:

What people seem to forget is that Spaziani has faced Navy before (again, he's been here 8 years as the DC). Let's check those games out for a minute. Spaziana started coaching at Boston College back in 1999 and that year he beat Navy 14-10. The following year, Spaziani put together another gem against Navy beating them 48-7 early in the season. The following year, Spaziani's defense won the game once again beating Navy 38-21. Finally, the last time they played against Navy, Spaziani's defense held them to 21 points and Boston College won 46-21.

I like it - good angle - thanks for the post.

 

[3 Seconds]

have to take motivation into account as well..its an intangible often overlooked but i know that going to North carolina to play Navy was not exactly what this BC program was looking towards...Navy plays hard no matter the opponent or score so if they for some reason start to get some confidence early it could be trouble...BC however always seems to show up for bowl games no matter who the opponent or where which is a testament to the coaching and leadership ...they have an advantage on both offensive and defensive lines so they should be able to run and stop the run..but I have seen this team give up some yards on the ground this year and lose to teams they should beat...and if you look at the commom opponent in Duke this year Navy's D actually statistically speaking was just as good as BC...

all that being said BC is the better team on paper and has better players but if they think they are just going to sleep walk through this game because Navy is thier opponent they will be in for a rude awakening..

cooz

Thanks for the input.

You cant judge them by one common oppenent.

Navy has played no where near the competition BC has this year.

Navy stats get a boost from playin: Temple, UMass, EMU & Stanford.

Their best win this year was beating Air Force or a loss to Tulsa in OT if you can consider a loss a positive.

BC did a get a boost by playing Maine & Buffalo.

BC also put up 38 on that Maryland D that man handled Purdue last night. They beat BYU, Clemson, VT, & FSU.

Maybe I think BC is better than they are, or maybe I think Navy is weaker than they are, but no way can I see Navy staying within 10 of BC.