Been Up All Night(bouncebacktime)

[MISTAKE FINDER]

Sorry about Last Night
The Canes mad 3 Baskets in the 2nd Half
I will Live...I hope everyone didnt get killed because of me..

Anyways we will get it back..

YTD
MF 90% 1-2-0
MF 80% 5-1-1
MF 70% 3-0-1

GOT 3 PLAYZ

I KNOW ROAD FAVS HAVE NOT BEEN GOOD BUT I HAVE TO FIGURE THAT THIS ONE GETS IT DONE.

MF 90% ILL-6

ILL has not been playing up to there potenetial and can not afford another loss. Purdue is just plain bad...There is not way they can play with ILL. ILL did not play well in Wisky but then again who does? I have to think ILL is just going to Full Court Blitz the Boiler Makers and I am looking for a final score of 81-58.

MF 90% BC +2

Villanova is improving there is no doubt about that...But now that Bell has a healthy partner back and his jaw is not all screwed I think BC will prevail. I know the Big East has been good to Home Court but I am very confident that BC wins this game. My main reasoning being that I dont think that Vill will be able to score more than 55.

MF 80% UNC Wil -9

bottom line here is that George Mason is ok but UNC WIl is very good. Again the Defense will make all the difference. UNC WIL 71-GMason 54

 

[bryanz]

recent history,goes against the line theory

recent history,goes against the line theory

I have noticed that when a team has won by a big margin in recent history, and the line does not go with the history , the favorite wins.#1 prov vs vill rov84-64@home 1/01.last gameVill-4.5, Vill wins and covers.#2Tenn st vsMorehead st: Tenn st 89-69@ home2/01 last game Morehead st -8 wins and covers.#3NIagara vs Manhattan:NI 90-80@home&81-78Away.last game Man-10wins and covers.#4Last nightDePaul vs St louepaul 86-68 & 68-43 home & away01&00 St louis-5.5 wins & covers.Before I looked @ your post today ,I had picked the bc , vill game based on this theory.Am I crazy?BC haswon the last (4) 93-79H, 89-74H,90-80A,79-67A. Why is Nova the fav? I think Nova -2 is the play.

 

[MISTAKE FINDER]

you are not crazy...
but just to let you know
if you dont already know
my picks and playz are rarely based on #'s
I play games strictly on what I have observed from watching these teams play myself. I have been playing ball and watching basketball since I have been 3 years old.
That is how I pick my games..
I know alot of value can be gained from reseacrhing trends
but I am not a
"technical Analyst"
I am a basketball Analyst
Good luck with all that # crunching

 

[bryanz]

not crunhing

not crunhing

Finder, let me say that I follow your picks and like the spots you pick. this is a theory that I stumbled on.I have a work sheet with all the lines and recent history that I look at before I decide what game to break down. I base my plays on players and coaches.I used your thread because this game fits the theroy and Its the first time I have tryed to explain it.We are all here for the same reason, Just trying to find and share another tool.No Theory is a 100%, this can be used as a red flag and may be save a few bad plays.

 

[MISTAKE FINDER]

Adding
GW +12

 

[MISTAKE FINDER]

Adding
ILL -3.5 1st Half

 

[boilermaker]

MISTAKE FINDER , I am sorry to say but I have to agre with you on Purdue. They are just plain terrible. Not your normal Gene Keady team. NO hardnose defense and no rebounding. Boilers are last in the conference in defense and rebounding. They are not physical at all and I feel that Illinois is very physical.I have never bet against the Boilers, but I am having a tough time not pulling the trigger tonight . I have followed the Boilers for over 30 years and think this may be the worst team I have ever seen.

 

[MISTAKE FINDER]

Boilermaker
Thank you for your insight..
It is nice to know how you feel.
I know how hard it is to bet against your team.
But I knew last year Uconn was rebuilding and I made some $$ of them. You know your team better than anyone..

 

[Lewey]

I hope I don't jinx you but I figured the Illinois game as a dd victory. I am with you!!! GL Lewey