Belmont Stakes
- Thread starter DOGS THAT BARK
- Start date
- Feb 12, 2000
- 10,652
- 39
- 48
- 50
What do you think of the race tomorrow?
I think I am liking Point Given. I luckily didn't take him in the Derby just because of the favorite jinx. I felt that he was at a nice price in the Preakness, so I luckily put a little across on him.
So hopefully his number will rise a little with the Monarchos hype and we can get a good price on him tomorrow.
I had Fifty Stars and Congaree in the Derby.
Tomorrow
$5 WPS Point Given
$4 TRI B Point Given, AP Valentine, Dollar Bill
So I guess I'm hoping that you don't ahve Monarchos.
These have not been placed, but it looks like where my money will be.
------------------
Sic 'em
dawgball
[This message has been edited by dawgball (edited 06-08-2001).]
I think I am liking Point Given. I luckily didn't take him in the Derby just because of the favorite jinx. I felt that he was at a nice price in the Preakness, so I luckily put a little across on him.
So hopefully his number will rise a little with the Monarchos hype and we can get a good price on him tomorrow.
I had Fifty Stars and Congaree in the Derby.
Tomorrow
$5 WPS Point Given
$4 TRI B Point Given, AP Valentine, Dollar Bill
So I guess I'm hoping that you don't ahve Monarchos.
These have not been placed, but it looks like where my money will be.
------------------
Sic 'em
dawgball
[This message has been edited by dawgball (edited 06-08-2001).]
i will throw in my .02 here:
i see no arguement for the 6, buckle down ben other than lucas has done it before w/horses that didn't seem to belong.
4. thunder blitz is interesting. i love his trainer and his jock but he didn't break his maiden until his 4th try and came up empty in 3 tries vs nw1 class. impressive in his last 2 but i like others better.
1.invisible ink - maybe he is as good as his derby but he will need to prove that to me. the derby was a freakish race on a very hard and fast track that burned up a lot of horses. one run closers are not the favored style of this race.
3.dollar bill - was the last a wake up call? this horse just keeps finding trouble and excuses. some horses make their own luck and at this point, i have to believe it is more than coincidence. one again, his favored style is not the best for this race.
my 2 longshots
2.balto star - there will be a bunch of folks that are very surprised if this horse isn't leading at the 1st call. this horse had some freakishly impressive races (3 straight) prior to the derby. the horse set fast fractions and then extended his lead at distances that folks wondered about him getting. he will need to carry that speed 3 panels further in this race. his trainer and his jock can get it done if the horse has it in him. that is really the question as the glitterman line is known for sprinting. he does have some stamina on his mom's side.
being the lone speed with the crafty mccarron aboard is too much for me to pass on at 15-1.
7.dr.greenfield - european shippers have hit the board in this race a few times recently and at 30-1, this horse can answer some questions that others in this race and other european shippers couldn't. 1. yes, he can get the distance and 2. he likes the dirt.
the owner/trainer have placed in the belmont in similar circumstances and they get local star, prado in the saddle. at 30-1, there are too many positives not to take a shot with this pony.
the favorite
i still think point given has yet to run his best race, which is scary. will it come here? i am not sure but he has the favored style. jock and trainer are as good as it gets and the track shouldn't be nearly as firm as churchill for the derby.
i was surprised that baffert sent him to ky instead of ny after the preakness but who am i to question baffert?
i can see him getting upset but i don't see him finishing out of the money and doubt he will finish out of the exacta.
the contenders
monarchos - i really don't know what to make of this horse. by all accounts, he didn't handle the pimlico surface well and he is home, so i have to believe he will handle this surface better. but he was beaten on his track by congaree and i believe, were it not for the ridiculous pace in the derby, congaree would have won that race as well(of course, i could be biased since that's who i bet on). basically, i am including monachos out of fear. i know he can win this race but it would not surprise me if he didn't hit the board.
ap valentine - was it the jockey? was he simply behind the other horses in developing? who knows? i look at the breeding on this horse, along w/the connections and have to think: 'what's not to like?' just as i had given up on him as one of those horses that just wouldn't live up to his billing, he goes and runs a great race in the preakness. now, he comes back home and has everything it takes to win this race. too bad he didn't wait one more race b/c i probably would have been back on him for this race b/c of his breeding. the odds might have been nice but i think he could go off as low as 3-1 tomorrow. i just can't leave him out.
likely bets:
$10 ex 9 - 2/7/8($30)
$5 ex 2/7/8 - 9 ($15)
$1 tri
9 - 2/5/7/8 - all($28)
2/7/8 - 9 - all($21)
2/5/7/8 - 2/5/7/8 - 9($12)
$2 tri key
9 - 2/7/8($12)
$5 wps on 2 and 7($30)
total investment = $148
i see no arguement for the 6, buckle down ben other than lucas has done it before w/horses that didn't seem to belong.
4. thunder blitz is interesting. i love his trainer and his jock but he didn't break his maiden until his 4th try and came up empty in 3 tries vs nw1 class. impressive in his last 2 but i like others better.
1.invisible ink - maybe he is as good as his derby but he will need to prove that to me. the derby was a freakish race on a very hard and fast track that burned up a lot of horses. one run closers are not the favored style of this race.
3.dollar bill - was the last a wake up call? this horse just keeps finding trouble and excuses. some horses make their own luck and at this point, i have to believe it is more than coincidence. one again, his favored style is not the best for this race.
my 2 longshots
2.balto star - there will be a bunch of folks that are very surprised if this horse isn't leading at the 1st call. this horse had some freakishly impressive races (3 straight) prior to the derby. the horse set fast fractions and then extended his lead at distances that folks wondered about him getting. he will need to carry that speed 3 panels further in this race. his trainer and his jock can get it done if the horse has it in him. that is really the question as the glitterman line is known for sprinting. he does have some stamina on his mom's side.
being the lone speed with the crafty mccarron aboard is too much for me to pass on at 15-1.
7.dr.greenfield - european shippers have hit the board in this race a few times recently and at 30-1, this horse can answer some questions that others in this race and other european shippers couldn't. 1. yes, he can get the distance and 2. he likes the dirt.
the owner/trainer have placed in the belmont in similar circumstances and they get local star, prado in the saddle. at 30-1, there are too many positives not to take a shot with this pony.
the favorite
i still think point given has yet to run his best race, which is scary. will it come here? i am not sure but he has the favored style. jock and trainer are as good as it gets and the track shouldn't be nearly as firm as churchill for the derby.
i was surprised that baffert sent him to ky instead of ny after the preakness but who am i to question baffert?
i can see him getting upset but i don't see him finishing out of the money and doubt he will finish out of the exacta.
the contenders
monarchos - i really don't know what to make of this horse. by all accounts, he didn't handle the pimlico surface well and he is home, so i have to believe he will handle this surface better. but he was beaten on his track by congaree and i believe, were it not for the ridiculous pace in the derby, congaree would have won that race as well(of course, i could be biased since that's who i bet on). basically, i am including monachos out of fear. i know he can win this race but it would not surprise me if he didn't hit the board.
ap valentine - was it the jockey? was he simply behind the other horses in developing? who knows? i look at the breeding on this horse, along w/the connections and have to think: 'what's not to like?' just as i had given up on him as one of those horses that just wouldn't live up to his billing, he goes and runs a great race in the preakness. now, he comes back home and has everything it takes to win this race. too bad he didn't wait one more race b/c i probably would have been back on him for this race b/c of his breeding. the odds might have been nice but i think he could go off as low as 3-1 tomorrow. i just can't leave him out.
likely bets:
$10 ex 9 - 2/7/8($30)
$5 ex 2/7/8 - 9 ($15)
$1 tri
9 - 2/5/7/8 - all($28)
2/7/8 - 9 - all($21)
2/5/7/8 - 2/5/7/8 - 9($12)
$2 tri key
9 - 2/7/8($12)
$5 wps on 2 and 7($30)
total investment = $148
What a great card all around at Belmont today but tough from capping standpoint as many races have over 12 entries and the ones that don't have some pretty heavy chalk that looks tough,however these classic races are far and few in between and will venture $50 on todays races.
Belmont Stakes Race 10
I'm clueless. Point and Monarchos look tough but none of these horses have went 12fl and in hopes of leaving myself a little value if fortunate to hit will add #1 Invisable Ink,8/1 good odds for steady horse/#2 Balto Star,will have no other early speed to deal with here/#7 Dr Greenfield,a mystery horse that has done nothing wrong in Europe and @ 30/1 I'm gonna take a peak.Got a weird combination today but trying to leave some chances for long one to pop which Belmont has been noted for.$1 tri cost $26 (I think)
1,2.5,7,9-5,9-1,2,5,7,9
2 undercard Tri's @ cost of $12 each
8th race 7-4,6,8 and 4,6,8-7-4,6,8
12th race 4-7,8,11 and 7,8,11-4-7,8,11
Belmont Stakes Race 10
I'm clueless. Point and Monarchos look tough but none of these horses have went 12fl and in hopes of leaving myself a little value if fortunate to hit will add #1 Invisable Ink,8/1 good odds for steady horse/#2 Balto Star,will have no other early speed to deal with here/#7 Dr Greenfield,a mystery horse that has done nothing wrong in Europe and @ 30/1 I'm gonna take a peak.Got a weird combination today but trying to leave some chances for long one to pop which Belmont has been noted for.$1 tri cost $26 (I think)
1,2.5,7,9-5,9-1,2,5,7,9
2 undercard Tri's @ cost of $12 each
8th race 7-4,6,8 and 4,6,8-7-4,6,8
12th race 4-7,8,11 and 7,8,11-4-7,8,11
This is a weird race.
PG looks the best but his drive home in the Preakness looked like he was punch drunk.
$Bill looks like one of those senior citizen drivers in Fla. He goes out of his way to get into traffic.
AP Valentine shaping up nicely.
Monarchos has no pace to run to.
I need to keep searching.
PG looks the best but his drive home in the Preakness looked like he was punch drunk.
$Bill looks like one of those senior citizen drivers in Fla. He goes out of his way to get into traffic.
AP Valentine shaping up nicely.
Monarchos has no pace to run to.
I need to keep searching.
- Feb 12, 2000
- 10,652
- 39
- 48
- 50
Not placing the across on PG now. At the current 8-5 odds, I see no value. I will keep him in the Tri, though. I like AP Valentine to win the race.
Current thoughts:
5 WPS AP V
2 Tri B AP, PG, Dollar Bill
------------------
Sic 'em
dawgball
Current thoughts:
5 WPS AP V
2 Tri B AP, PG, Dollar Bill
------------------
Sic 'em
dawgball
Proline just see ml odds everywhere.
Belmont 8th race the 6 is scratched and will scratch the tri in that race.
Belmont 8th race the 6 is scratched and will scratch the tri in that race.
Race seems to lack some pizzazz so going with $Bill over PG.
Ride the wave.
DTB thanks for the help. Even the Preakness site had updated odds.
Ride the wave.
DTB thanks for the help. Even the Preakness site had updated odds.
Point Given with the Dr second and Thunder coming in third. Throw Valentine in that mix for second only and I have a conservative $6 tri investment. Tough race to cap. Good Luck Everyone
Results
Belmont Stakes 9-8-5
$76.00 tri didn't miss much
Race 12 split tri 2-4-9 and 2-9-4
one pd $5,000 plus and one $7,000 plus.
Unfortunately had neither.
Concludes triple crown with no tri hit past 2 years.
Belmont Stakes 9-8-5
$76.00 tri didn't miss much
Race 12 split tri 2-4-9 and 2-9-4
one pd $5,000 plus and one $7,000 plus.
Unfortunately had neither.
Concludes triple crown with no tri hit past 2 years.
