Like somebody said in another thread, there's only a handful of horses who have a realistic chance of winning. Its who makes up that handful that causes the debate. Here's who I think they are:
WAR EMBLEM--Obvious but his bettability is the concern here. With the unknown distance factor of 12 furlongs, you shouldn't take even money or worse on any horse, regardless of running style. He did impress me even more in the Preakness but there's another fresh speedball in Wiseman's Ferry to make things difficult for him. But he did win the Preakness without going wire to wire so he is capable of going past horses. One other knock is Baffert has lost this race a couple of times as a prohibitive favorite so maybe his preparation for the Belmont isn't the best.
PROUD CITIZEN--I will probably be playing against him. Conspiracy theorists feel that Lukas' prime objective is not necessarily to win but to prevent Baffert from getting the Triple Crown. That aside, he had good trips in the Blue Grass and Derby but did run well despite going wide at Pimlico. How much is left in the tank?? I could definitely see a regression here. He's good enough to win but he won't be on any of my tickets.
SUNDAY BREAK--I don't care that his Beyer number regressed in the Peter Pan. Before the Wood, he won an Allowance race by loafing thru the stretch and got a weak number. When he was asked to run a huge number, he did (in the Wood). He has a trainer who has won this race before (do not underestimate that) and Drysdale is one of the best--period. He also has the running style that reminds me of past winners like Bet Twice, Touch Gold, Risen Star. He is a stalker who can be close to a soft pace but can back off a faster than usual pace. He maybe doesn't have the sudden acceleration of War Emblem but I think he's capable of putting together a lot of 25 second quarters. The negative is coming back in only 2 weeks. Usable at 3-1 or better.
PERFECT DRIFT--Similar style to Sunday Break but he's had 5 weeks off. In the Derby, he basically spotted War Emblem a few lengths (maybe 2.5 or 3) and pretty much ran evenly around the track. He still finished pretty good and w/Wiseman's Ferry as a major pace presence he could stalk the pace and sweep by. I'd like to see at least 5-1 but he's usable at that price.
ESSENCE OF DUBAI--I think he's the logical longshot. He had an awful trip in the Derby, racing very wide and trying to make up ground on the soft pace. He is the only other horse besides War Emblem to have won a race as far as 10 furlongs. This is probably a better spot than the Derby for him. He's had time to acclimate and he's by the son of a Belmont winner (AP Indy) out of a dam who's sire (Summing) also is a Belmont winner.
WAR EMBLEM--Obvious but his bettability is the concern here. With the unknown distance factor of 12 furlongs, you shouldn't take even money or worse on any horse, regardless of running style. He did impress me even more in the Preakness but there's another fresh speedball in Wiseman's Ferry to make things difficult for him. But he did win the Preakness without going wire to wire so he is capable of going past horses. One other knock is Baffert has lost this race a couple of times as a prohibitive favorite so maybe his preparation for the Belmont isn't the best.
PROUD CITIZEN--I will probably be playing against him. Conspiracy theorists feel that Lukas' prime objective is not necessarily to win but to prevent Baffert from getting the Triple Crown. That aside, he had good trips in the Blue Grass and Derby but did run well despite going wide at Pimlico. How much is left in the tank?? I could definitely see a regression here. He's good enough to win but he won't be on any of my tickets.
SUNDAY BREAK--I don't care that his Beyer number regressed in the Peter Pan. Before the Wood, he won an Allowance race by loafing thru the stretch and got a weak number. When he was asked to run a huge number, he did (in the Wood). He has a trainer who has won this race before (do not underestimate that) and Drysdale is one of the best--period. He also has the running style that reminds me of past winners like Bet Twice, Touch Gold, Risen Star. He is a stalker who can be close to a soft pace but can back off a faster than usual pace. He maybe doesn't have the sudden acceleration of War Emblem but I think he's capable of putting together a lot of 25 second quarters. The negative is coming back in only 2 weeks. Usable at 3-1 or better.
PERFECT DRIFT--Similar style to Sunday Break but he's had 5 weeks off. In the Derby, he basically spotted War Emblem a few lengths (maybe 2.5 or 3) and pretty much ran evenly around the track. He still finished pretty good and w/Wiseman's Ferry as a major pace presence he could stalk the pace and sweep by. I'd like to see at least 5-1 but he's usable at that price.
ESSENCE OF DUBAI--I think he's the logical longshot. He had an awful trip in the Derby, racing very wide and trying to make up ground on the soft pace. He is the only other horse besides War Emblem to have won a race as far as 10 furlongs. This is probably a better spot than the Derby for him. He's had time to acclimate and he's by the son of a Belmont winner (AP Indy) out of a dam who's sire (Summing) also is a Belmont winner.
