Best way to calculate units won and units lost???

[kickserv]

Like anything pertaining to numbers, you can always find a way to make your "numbers" work in your favour.

So with that being said I am curious as to how you madjackers caculate your units won and units lost? And what system do you find best shows how a handicapper is doing??

I myself prefer the way the europeans do it......use the decimal format and calculate units that way........that's how I do it..here is what I mean:

say you bet 1 unit on an NFL game at vegas odds of -110.....well that would work out to $1.91 (210 dived by 110) in decimal format......

so.....if you lost you would lose one unit for a profit of -1.00 units

if you won.......you would have a PROFIT of .91 units (1 x 1.91 - 1 =.91)


or if you bet 2 units on a NHL moneyLine dog at odds of +215.......that would work out to odds of $3.15 in decimal format.......if you lost that game you would lose 2 units.........if you won you would have a PROFIT of 4.3 units (2 x 3.15 - 2 =4.3)


that means if ya lost the NFL game and won the hockey game you would be up 3.3 units.




I notice that most cappers in North America calculate units differently then me......my question is this....why? And does it make a difference :shrug:

 

[saint]

I have noticed quite a few people credit themselves 2 units for a Win on a -115 bet, but if they lose they only deduct -2 units and not the -2.3 units they would have had to bet to win 2.

 

[kickserv]

yes have noticed that as well.......is that correct :shrug:

 

[saint]

Of course not, you either risk 2.3 to win 2 or you risk 2 to win less than 2. I'd LOVE to bet at a book that gives you the best of both worlds

 

[kickserv]

yes I know that's not correct.........just being sarcastic....

although many cappers out there have a way of saying that is correct :nono:

 

[kickserv]

Will be interesting what others have to say on this topic

 

[countinguy]

Kickster,

That's the way I figure my units, even though I like the american way better -110 etc..

I bet 1 unit to win .91 just like u said, a lot of people have questioned the way I track my units, when I say I only won .91 and they think I won 1 unit!!

 

[kickserv]

yeah.....same thing happens with me.....

 

[yyz]

a unit:

If I bet two units on chalk, I win two units. If I lose, I lose the units and the juice.

On a dog, I wager a unit, and take the return.

 

[kickserv]

yes YYZ.......your way of calculating units seems to be popular in the States......not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing:shrug:

perhaps someone on here (a math wiz perhaps) may shed some light as to what system is more accurate

 

[GM]

I don't think either way is wrong really, as long as you deduct the juice as well as the unit when you lose.

As far as which way is more accurate, that would depend on whether you are getting "true" decimals, or decimals converted from American. In other words, are they really giving you 1.91, or are they converting -110 to decimal, and giving you 1.909090909...? In this case your decimals are ~slightly~ (and I mean really slightly) inaccurate, as you are always rounding up or down. So saying you won 0.91 of a unit, if you want to get super-picky, you are really crediting yourself an extra tenth of a cent for each dollar won, or an extra dollar for every $1000 won. Not that it matters really....

One thing I might look for (being the cheap bugger that I am ) is whether or not books round up or down - or truncate - to the nearest dollar, or whether they credit you dollars and cents.

Example: On a -115 line
$100 risked wins you $86.96 if they count to the cent
$100 risked wins you $87.00 if they round up
$100 risked wins you $86.00 if they truncate the cents

In the case of truncating, I'd bet $99 to win $86. The winning payout is the same, but if you lose you're wasting a dollar. Every little bit helps!

If they round up and down to the nearest dollar and you are betting on a -110 line, to maximize your round-ups you want to wager to win amounts ending in a 4.

ie. Wager to win $24. Your wager amount is $26.40. But they round it down to $26.

If you did it to win $25, you'd risk $27.50, which they would round up to $28. An extra $2 at risk with only an extra $1 of profit. $25 is a much more common bet amount of course. But who, but the cheapest of people ( ) would wager to win $24? People end up wasting a full dollar every time they lose a bet on a wager to win an amount ending in a 5, when rounding is used.

The "win amounts ending in a 4" rule works for any bet size on -110 odds. I'm not sure what the equivalent rule in decimals would be (I don't use decimals that often), but I am sure there is one.

 

[crookycymru]

Kyle,

Very good topic......your best for a while!!

I will settle this argument once and for all.....forget what the Yanks do....the European way is best (the way I post in my own rugby threads, as does Hoss and others). If you look at my posts, you can go straight to my record, and easily understand what I am winning.

For example, if I was up 5.00 units then you can adjust that to which ever you stake your unit. So if you wagered ?100 per unit, I would be in profit to the tune of ?500 on the season. What can be more simpler than that???? :shrug:

Another example is that I go to your tennis threads (which are 1st class I will add), and havent a clue what your YTD is. I see you are listing +4000, but that means nothing to me, who is somebody coming into your threads. +4000 what??? Bananas, elephants???? :shrug: I see you generally stake your bets between 100-500, now if you reduced that to 1 unit-5 units, and calculate your profit that way, then I personally would be much happier. So you have had 1 unit on Ferrero to beat Agassi at 10/11 (-110), then you have made a profit of +0.91 units. If you lose, you have simply lost a unit.

I know it is not as good on the eye, as the way you are doing at present, but it is much more believable, and is more reliable a way if you ever wanted to proof your selections anywhere.

Hope this has helped, but again it is only my opinion. But I work in the industry, and Euro way is the way to go I am afraid....... Never mind you are better at baseball than us Euros .........

Good thread....you are a very good contributor to this site.

 

[Korn]

the way I do it is I calculate the American odds and post what it equals into decimal format...

Sometimes when betting a fav I will play to win 1 unit... or I may bet 1 unit to win whatever it equals... (either way doesn't matter, both are accurate)

Example I may play 1.1 units to win 1.0 or I may play 1.0 to win 0.91... whichever way I do it is the way I post it for each game...

therefore it is accurate.... and the juice is calculated in there either way....

I don't just say the play is for 2 units and then if it wins mark it as a 2 unit win and if it loses only a 2 unit loss as many do....

Example:

Vancouver ML -130 2.6 units to win 2.0

If VAncouver wins I am up 2.0 units... if they lose I am down 2.6 units....

And 1 unit is equal to a certain figure that I determine before the start of each season... so I say I make 1 unit $100 and I make a play for $300 then I post it as 3 unit play.... and my base unit stays the same thru out the season....

This is the most accurate way of posting IMO


GL

 

[crookycymru]

Korn,

A pretty good reply. I still prefer the 'Euro' format, but how anyone can award themselves 2 Units=2 Units on any line is beyond me. Anybody who does is a fraud. Yes if all your lines are 1/1 (+100), then fine, but we all know that is not the case.

If I was to place $200 on the Yankees at 1/4 (-400), then do I actually win 2 units. Of course not......I am winning only half a unit.
Anybody who says otherwise is a fraud......

 

[kickserv]

great points from the madjackers....and yes it is interesting to read how different people keep track of their plays

and totally agree Gareth.stick with the decimal


and great points by GM about the "rounding"

 

[british bulldog]

I have sat back and watched the comments grow on this thread. As a european I have backed 99% of my plays on the basis of how many units I stake against the odds. There really is no right and wrong way.

Stake 1 unit at -110 (10/11 or 1.91) returns 0.91 the european way or 1.0 the North American way. The all important thing is the unit staked and how it is documented. If the above example was to lose, the european way would lose 1 unit and the American way loses 1.1 units.

Not many on this document their recrds accurately as Kickserv has pointed out.


However, what has been missed by all of you here and by many before you is what I am about to reveal. If you ask any true professional bettor what is the most important aspect of wagering and how good you are at selecting winning plays is the following. Top of the list is R.O.I.(return on investment), secondly is units won (or lost) and third is percentage of winning plays.

Now then this part is simple. How should one wager? If you are flat betting on lines of -110 (1.91 or 10/11) for one unit every play then it is the european way to play, make no mistake, it is fact. I will show you all now.


Let's say we have 200 plays and have successfully won at 58%. Not to large a win percentage but what most cappers would be well happy in achieving. Don't forget it is over 200 plays. Some where within those 200 plays I would be sure there would be a group of 40 bets that won at a clip over 65%.

AMERICAN WAY

200 bets @ $110 = $22,000 staked
116 wins = $210 x 116 = $24,360 returned

profit = $2,360

R.O.I. = 110.73 %


EUROPEAN WAY

200 bets @ $100 = $20,000 staked
116 wins = $190.91 x 116 = $22,145.56

profit = $2,145.56

R.O.I. = 110.73 %


Now as you can see both forms of wagering result in the same Return on Investment. Yet betting the european way you have actually risked $2000 less to get that return. Now you will I am sure argue that the profit figure is up betting the American way by $214.44, and yes it is. But I must point out that you have risked 10% less of your bank to acheve the same ROI.

Certainly this is based on a winning season, so lets look at a losing seson where we win at 45% and there are plenty of you that have done far worse than that.

Betting $110 to win $100 will give us the following; 200 bets @ $110 with 45% winners (90) returns $18,900 for a loss of $3,100 and an R.O.I. of 85.91 %

Betting $100 to win $90.91 will give us the following; 200 bets @ $100 with 45% winners returns $17,181.90 for a loss of $2,818.10 and an R.O.I. of 85.91%

Again it is exactly the same ROI but the loss incurred by the backer is $281.90 less than betting the American way.


Conclusion:
No one can expect to win season, after season, after season. If you did then you can take it from me that any sportsbook would still take your wagers but with stipulations. They would limit your action, reduce odds or lines against you and infact all they would be using you for is someone who is marking their card and they get that for free where they have to pay others for that priviledge.

Now an argument can be made for both ways of betting. Yes more profit is won betting the North American style over European methods. But the bottom line is why risk more money for the same return on investment. When you first make a bet, you are speculating to win, and that is what it is speculate, nothing more, nothing less. Anyone who EXPECTS to win should not be wagering.

 

[Woolf]

This is how i do it....
2Units on Team A -120...Winner...+2.00
3Units on Team B -135...Loser...-4.05
2Units on Team C +120...Loser...-2.00
3Units on Team D +200...Winner...+6.00
Total.............................................+1.95 X Whatever my one unit is. Usually $100

 

[kickserv]

wow

Bulldog...great analysis.....


You sure broke it down, can't break it down any more then that

 

[kickserv]

and ya just knew this thread was going to get a lot of input

 

[british bulldog]

Kickserv, that is why I have been successful in the past and many have not and never will. They don't understand percentage profit and certainly money management.

Ask many bettors why they have three units on one game and one unit on another. Most answer because I fancy it more or I lost two units last time and if this three unit play wins I will be in profit. What BOLLOCKS !!!

These are the type of players that the books want and want some more.

MY TIP FOR THE DAY.

Learn money management and your bankroll will look after itself.