BETTING ANGLE DIVERSITY
After reading a previous column of mine entitled, "Expect the Impossible", an excited handicapper from this site felt compelled to email me. There was a line from the column where I suggested that successful handicapping is usually done more by beating other handicappers than by beating the book. In that regard, a good handicapper must often expect the impossible to happen and be prepared when that happens.
The reason he emailed me is that he has an angle for betting college football that is unique. In fact it is so unique that he asked me not to detail it publicly, so I won't. He was delighted to see me write this because his unique system uses a factor not often handicapped by the average gambler. Therefore, his angle is justified as a good angle if one believes that the best way to handicap is to beat other players.
To be honest, I don't know if his angle is a good one or a bad one. In fact, I don't really care. I don't bet college football so it doesn't affect me as much as it would your average college football gambler. What struck me is the fact that his tone in the email suggested that this angle was something of a panacea for sports handicappers that would produce profits indefinitely. When I read him writing in that tone, I started to care.
The fact is that there are many good handicapping angles out there. I use several in all four major sports and I must humbly say that the results have generally been very good. One thing I have learned in using angles, however, is that one must have diversity to be successful.
Just as teams go on streaks and just as handicappers have up and down cycles, handicapping angles have hot and cold streaks as well. For me personally, the best example may be in the NHL, where Mad Jack's expert handicapper Tiger generously posted about 10 angles to use when betting the NHL.
I have freely used these angles many times in the past and overall they have certainly made me money. It is important to point out, though, that usually these angles are best used with a multitude of handicapping methodology, not just a single angle played blindly. For example playing the over when a team plays back to back on the road will make money over the long haul, but to optimize profits a handicapper should pick and choose when to hit games hard and when to back off.
Probably every sports handicapper uses some kind of handicapping angles. The important thing to remember is that your angle is not fool proof and you should still play even angles selectively to avoid riding an angle through a cold streak. It is also important to have a diverse pool of angles to choose from.
I would think that everyone reading this would have a few handicapping angles of their own, but just in case they don't, I'll post a few that I have used in the past:
NFL: Play the home team coming off a road win if the opponent had above average offense in their previous game. (It is up to the handicapper to judge above average offense. Angle's theory is that big offense is tough to reproduce and a team coming home after a win will have confidence.)
NFL: Play a home dog of a touchdown or more if the opponent comes off a home game in which they were favored. (A good team going on the road against a doormat after a home win is likely to let down.)
NBA: Play the over if both teams are playing back to back in different cities. I got this angle from Six Five. (Tired legs mean poor defense and more fouls.)
NBA: Play against a team coming home from a successful road trip with one day of rest. This also works in the NHL. Another a Six Five angle. (One day of rest means probably no practice and a likely letdown. Works especially well with bad teams.)
NHL: Play against a team coming home back to back off a road win against a rested team. Tiger's angle. (Line should be inflated after the big road win.)
In baseball, it's a bit more fluid. You kind of just have to get a feel for pitcher's cycles, overuse and hitting streaks.
One last thing. Make sure your angles are relevant. Just because a team has a good record ATS dating back a few years does not mean it's relevant to this year. Teams have large changeovers in personnel. I see it very often in the NFL because teams play so few games that many people follow trends that date back years. Make sure your angles and trends are relevant.
After reading a previous column of mine entitled, "Expect the Impossible", an excited handicapper from this site felt compelled to email me. There was a line from the column where I suggested that successful handicapping is usually done more by beating other handicappers than by beating the book. In that regard, a good handicapper must often expect the impossible to happen and be prepared when that happens.
The reason he emailed me is that he has an angle for betting college football that is unique. In fact it is so unique that he asked me not to detail it publicly, so I won't. He was delighted to see me write this because his unique system uses a factor not often handicapped by the average gambler. Therefore, his angle is justified as a good angle if one believes that the best way to handicap is to beat other players.
To be honest, I don't know if his angle is a good one or a bad one. In fact, I don't really care. I don't bet college football so it doesn't affect me as much as it would your average college football gambler. What struck me is the fact that his tone in the email suggested that this angle was something of a panacea for sports handicappers that would produce profits indefinitely. When I read him writing in that tone, I started to care.
The fact is that there are many good handicapping angles out there. I use several in all four major sports and I must humbly say that the results have generally been very good. One thing I have learned in using angles, however, is that one must have diversity to be successful.
Just as teams go on streaks and just as handicappers have up and down cycles, handicapping angles have hot and cold streaks as well. For me personally, the best example may be in the NHL, where Mad Jack's expert handicapper Tiger generously posted about 10 angles to use when betting the NHL.
I have freely used these angles many times in the past and overall they have certainly made me money. It is important to point out, though, that usually these angles are best used with a multitude of handicapping methodology, not just a single angle played blindly. For example playing the over when a team plays back to back on the road will make money over the long haul, but to optimize profits a handicapper should pick and choose when to hit games hard and when to back off.
Probably every sports handicapper uses some kind of handicapping angles. The important thing to remember is that your angle is not fool proof and you should still play even angles selectively to avoid riding an angle through a cold streak. It is also important to have a diverse pool of angles to choose from.
I would think that everyone reading this would have a few handicapping angles of their own, but just in case they don't, I'll post a few that I have used in the past:
NFL: Play the home team coming off a road win if the opponent had above average offense in their previous game. (It is up to the handicapper to judge above average offense. Angle's theory is that big offense is tough to reproduce and a team coming home after a win will have confidence.)
NFL: Play a home dog of a touchdown or more if the opponent comes off a home game in which they were favored. (A good team going on the road against a doormat after a home win is likely to let down.)
NBA: Play the over if both teams are playing back to back in different cities. I got this angle from Six Five. (Tired legs mean poor defense and more fouls.)
NBA: Play against a team coming home from a successful road trip with one day of rest. This also works in the NHL. Another a Six Five angle. (One day of rest means probably no practice and a likely letdown. Works especially well with bad teams.)
NHL: Play against a team coming home back to back off a road win against a rested team. Tiger's angle. (Line should be inflated after the big road win.)
In baseball, it's a bit more fluid. You kind of just have to get a feel for pitcher's cycles, overuse and hitting streaks.
One last thing. Make sure your angles are relevant. Just because a team has a good record ATS dating back a few years does not mean it's relevant to this year. Teams have large changeovers in personnel. I see it very often in the NFL because teams play so few games that many people follow trends that date back years. Make sure your angles and trends are relevant.
