As far as playing runlines, I tend to usually stay away from them as well, although I will play them on occasion.
Just a couple things to keep in mind if you do play them. As most cappers would agree, if you are playing the favorite on the runline, make sure the favorite is on the road. That way you get the full 9 innings of at bats.
You also want to look at which ballpark they are playing at. Is it a hitters or a pitchers park? You'll get closer(more one run) games in the pitchers parks.
Also, keep in mind that the AL games are higher scoring and there are generally fewer one run games in the AL than the NL which would make laying the 1 1/2 runs in the AL a better bet than playing the dog on the runline.
Vice versa, in the NL, the games are generally a little lower scoring, and I rarely ever play a favorite on the runline in this league unless it's some place like Coors field or Enron
I mean "Astros Field"
Roughly, 27% of all the games last year were decided by one run. Remember the team just wants to win. For example, say a team is up by 2 runs in the 9th and a runner gets on. The team is definately not concerned with that runner. They will rarely hold the runner on base, and usually he'll steal 2nd and even 3rd...lots of times with out even a throw. That run doens't mean a thing...except to the -1 1/2 bettors. This is one of the big negatives playing that runline.
One more thing you'll see, is alot of times the runline looks so tempting because of course the moneyline is so steep. But alot of times you'll see a mediocre pitcher really step up his game pitching vs an ace and you'll see a much more closer game than it looks like on paper. This is partially mental, but also, with not many runners getting on base, the pitchers get in a good groove (not having to wait in between long innings) and thus are more focused.
Just my take on the subject. Good luck to all this season.
-ndnfan
Just a couple things to keep in mind if you do play them. As most cappers would agree, if you are playing the favorite on the runline, make sure the favorite is on the road. That way you get the full 9 innings of at bats.
You also want to look at which ballpark they are playing at. Is it a hitters or a pitchers park? You'll get closer(more one run) games in the pitchers parks.
Also, keep in mind that the AL games are higher scoring and there are generally fewer one run games in the AL than the NL which would make laying the 1 1/2 runs in the AL a better bet than playing the dog on the runline.
Vice versa, in the NL, the games are generally a little lower scoring, and I rarely ever play a favorite on the runline in this league unless it's some place like Coors field or Enron
I mean "Astros Field"Roughly, 27% of all the games last year were decided by one run. Remember the team just wants to win. For example, say a team is up by 2 runs in the 9th and a runner gets on. The team is definately not concerned with that runner. They will rarely hold the runner on base, and usually he'll steal 2nd and even 3rd...lots of times with out even a throw. That run doens't mean a thing...except to the -1 1/2 bettors. This is one of the big negatives playing that runline.
One more thing you'll see, is alot of times the runline looks so tempting because of course the moneyline is so steep. But alot of times you'll see a mediocre pitcher really step up his game pitching vs an ace and you'll see a much more closer game than it looks like on paper. This is partially mental, but also, with not many runners getting on base, the pitchers get in a good groove (not having to wait in between long innings) and thus are more focused.
Just my take on the subject. Good luck to all this season.
-ndnfan
