Big Ten college football preview
By Jeff Mason
Thu, Aug 24, 2006
Illinois Fighting Illini (+20000 to win Big Ten title)
It looks like defense will dominate in Year 2 of the Ron Zook era. A former NFL defensive coordinator at New Orleans, Zook?s defense has been well ahead of the offense during spring practice and training camp.
One of the hidden gems on defense is true freshman cornerback Vontae Davis, the brother of former Maryland standout and current San Francisco 49er Vernon Davis.
A blueprint model of the type of player Zook is known for recruiting, the younger Davis possesses the same athleticism as his brother and has been a standout during practices, even intercepting two passes during the Illini?s spring game.
Two other freshmen, defensive linemen Melvin Alaeze and Jerry Brown are also expected to be big contributors to the Illini defense. The problem is that neither player is cleared academically to play and the NCAA hasn?t allowed them to practice for the last four days.
Prediction: 2-10 straight up, 7-5 against the spread
Indiana Hoosiers (+20000)
Everyone knows Troy Smith and Ted Ginn; everyone knows Chad Henne and Steve Breaston, but the top quarterback-wide receiver combination in the Big Ten might actually be in Indiana.
Wide receiver James Hardy led the Big Ten with 89.3 receiving yards per game as a freshman last season; all of those passes coming from quarterback Blake Powers, now a junior. At 6-foot-7, Hardy provides his quarterback with a big target in the red zone.
The duo will hope to improve on the IU single season touchdown pass record Powers set last year with 22; 10 of those going Hardy?s way.
They?ll have no choice but to be better this year considering the state of the Hoosiers? running game. Powers was the team?s leading rusher last season with just 121 yards and this year, Indiana is trying to groom wide receiver Marcus Thigpen, a track star, as the starting running back.
Prediction: 5-7 straight up, 5-7 against the spread
Iowa Hawkeyes (+350)
The second favorite in the Big Ten this season isn?t Michigan, but Iowa ? and for good reason. The Hawkeyes return senior quarterback Drew Tate and junior running back Albert Young to what should be one of the conference?s best offenses.
Any problems for the Hawkeyes will most likely occur on the defensive side of the ball. Iowa lost two of the Big Ten?s leading tacklers, linebackers Chad Greenway and Abdul Hodge, to the NFL, but don?t feel bad for the Hawkeyes just yet. All-Big Ten defensive end Kenny Iwebema is back after a seven-sack sophomore season. He?s joined by junior end Bryan Mattison, who added four sacks on the weak side.
It won?t take long to find out what the Hawkeyes are made of. After opening Big Ten play at Illinois, Iowa hosts conference and national preseason No. 1 Ohio State on Sept. 30. They have a fairly easy schedule after that, with a road game at Michigan the only real obstacle. Iowa misses Penn State, another conference favorite, on the schedule this season.
Prediction: 10-2 straight up, 8-4 against the spread
Michigan Wolverines (+450)
Games at Notre Dame and at Ohio State have certainly been circled on the Wolverines? schedule. A 7-point loss to the Irish and a 4-point loss to the Buckeyes were Michgan?s biggest losses last season.
Michigan?s entire 2005 was a season of almosts. They showed promise in handing Orange Bowl champion Penn State its only loss of the season, and lost five games by a total of 21 points, but success in Ann Arbour isn?t measured in almosts ? it?s measured in Big Ten championships ? something Michigan has accomplished twice in the last five years.
All the pieces are in place for a title run this year. The Wolverines return their three big guns on offense in junior quarterback Chad Henne, junior tailback Mike Hart and senior wide receiver/kick returner Steve Breaston. The defense also returns eight starters.
Old faces don?t mean it?s just going to be more of the same for the Wolverines. There are new coordinators on both sides of the ball with former special teams coach Mike DeBord stepping in to run the offense and secondary coach Ron English running the defense.
It?s unknown what immediate changes that means for Michigan, but reports out of camp are that DeBord is focusing on execution and, as a result, has simplified the running game.
English will try to shore up a defense that allowed way too many big plays last season and he is emphasizing fast-paced intensity.
Prediction: 10-2 straight up, 6-6 against the spread
Michigan State Spartans (+1817)
MSU went just 2-6 both straight up and against the spread in Big Ten play last season and missed out on a bowl game for the second straight season.
Interestingly, the Spartans? recent struggles can be pinpointed in a single month. MSU is just 5-16 in November since 2000 and just 5-15-1 against the spread.
One of the biggest problems for the Spartans last season was the kicking game; kicker Matt Haughey made just five of 16 field goal attempts. The situation is still uncertain this season and Haughey will be replaced by true freshman in Brett Swenson.
The constant for MSU will be quarterback Drew Stanton, a Heisman frontrunner early least season after leading the Spartans to a 4-0 start and a win over Notre Dame. Even when Michigan State struggled to close out the season, Stanton continued to play well, never throwing for less than 233 yards in any game and tossing a school record 22 touchdowns.
Stanton?s go-to guy will be a familiar face, even if it was hidden for much of last season. MSU hoops star Matt Trannon, broke his jaw during the basketball season and was forced to wear a mask, but he hasn?t missed a day of practice. He?s joined by the team?s leading returning receiver Jerramy Scott, who had 49 catches for 722 yards and four touchdowns in 2005.
Prediction: 5-7 straight up, 5-7 against the spread
Minnesota Golden Gophers (+2899)
It looks like it?s the end of an era for the Minnesota running machine. The Golden Gophers have ranked in the top 5 in team rushing in each of the last three seasons, but a number of departures hurt their chances for a fourth.
Standout tailback Laurence Maroney left a year early for the NFL and his backup, Gary Russell, has been ruled academically ineligible.
Another underrated loss is Greg Eslinger, a three-year starter at center and 2005 Outland Trophy winner as the top lineman in the nation. Not only was Eslinger a devastating run blocker, he is also the only center senior quarterback Brian Cupito has ever had. Junior Tony Brinkhaus, an all-Big Ten honorable mention at right tackle last season, has big shoes to fill.
Not all is lost for Minnesota?s ground game. They still have the shifty Amir Pinnix. As a sophomore last season, Pinnix started one game for an injured Maroney and racked up 206 yards on 32 carries on his way to winning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week honors. How much of that was because of that offensive line? Only time will tell.
Prediction: 6-6 straight up, 7-5 against the spread
Northwestern Wildcats (+6000)
No program suffered a bigger loss this offseason than the Wildcats, who lost their coach, Randy Walker, to a heart attack.
Defensive coordinator Pat Fitzgerald has filled in admirably in his absence, but it?s hard to imagine the loss of Walker, as well as quarterback Bret Basanez to gradutation, will produce the Big Ten?s top offense for a second straight season.
The starting quarterback position is still up in the air at Northwestern. It was thought that sophomore C.J. Bacher would earn the spot, but he?s been hampered by a leg injury during training camp and freshman Mike Kafka has made the most of his extra snaps, putting his name squarely in the quarterback discussion.
Amid uncertainty, Northwestern?s offense remains dangerous with the presence of sophomore Tyrell Sutton. Sutton totaled 1,870 yards and 18 touchdowns for the Wildcats last season, but with the passing game not quite what it was in 2005, and a year of film at their disposal, defenses will be ready for him.
Prediction: 6-6 straight up, 6-6 against the spread
Ohio State Buckeyes (+137)
The hype machine has been rolling ever since the Buckeyes? 34-20 win over Notre Dame in January?s Fiesta Bowl. The preseason No. 1 and third favorite to win the National Championship at +730, OSU returns eight starters to an explosive offense, but just two starters on defense.
When a team is taleked about as much as the Buckeyes have been this offseason, it?s easy to start overanalyzing. The justification for Ohio State?s lofty odds is that this is a Jim Tressel defense and a Jim Tressel defense is never bad.
Is that fair? They shouldn?t have a problem with the personnel. OSU is also becoming to the Midwest what USC is to California ? a national recruiting super-magnet. You may not know the names of the players on the Buckeyes defense, but you can bet you will soon.
The bigger question might actually be on offense, where the quarterback-wide receiver tandem of Troy Smith and Ted Ginn, Jr. has huge expectations. Both players were at their best late last season with Smith throwing for over 300 yards in each of OSU?s last two games and Ginn making one third (17 of 51) of his catches in those games.
There?s no such question at running back, where junior Antonio Pittman provided a consistent ground game all season, rushing for over 100 yards in seven of 12 games and never dipping below 58 yards rushing in any game.
Now if the Buckeyes can just live up to the hype for their Week 2 game against Texas.
Prediction: 12-0 straight up, 5-7 against the spread
Penn State Nittany Lions (+617)
Penn State will be an interesting team to follow this season. The Lions have lost their versatile quarterback, Michael Robinson, but might have the best defensive player in the country in linebacker Paul Posluszny.
Robinson?s replacement at quarterback will be Anthony Morelli. The junior has just 33 career pass attempts, all in mop-up duty, but he has the complete trust of the coaching staff to guide an offense that returns six starters.
It will be Posluszny leading a defense that returns just five starters, including none on a secondary with two all-Big Ten selections and two honorable mentions last season. The new group of starters won?t get much of an adjustment period; PSU visits Notre Dame in Week 2 and plays at Ohio State in Week 4.
The strength of the team will be the linebacking corps, where Posluszny captains the strongest group in the nation. He?s joined by junior Dan Connor and senior Tom Shaw.
Prediction: 9-3 straight up, 5-7 against the spread
Purdue Boilermakers (+3364)
There?s not a lot of optimism in West Lafayette this season. The Boilermakers return just 11 starters from last season, including four on a defense that was already among the nation?s worst.
Purdue ranked 104th in the country last season by allowing 430.7 total yards per game. This was magnified by a secondary that allowed 287.3 passing yards per game.
If the Boilermakers want to win games this season, it looks like they?re going to be doing it with the offense. Purdue completely revamped its offensive coaching staff during the offseason, most notably hiring away Ed Zaunbrecher from Illinois to be its co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.
Zaunbrecher has the very raw Curtis Painter to mold at quarterback this season. Just a sophomore, Painter started the last five games for the Boilermakers last season and proved to be a threat in both running and passing game.
Purdue also has the benefit of a 13th game this season when it travels to Hawaii in it?s season finale
Prediction: 3-10 straight up, 4-9 against the spread
Wisconsin Badgers (+1370)
There are tons of questions in Madison this season. How will senior quarterback John Stocco recover from offseason knee surgery? Who is going to replace tailback Brian Calhoun?
What kind of an impact will top 5 NFL prospect Joe Thomas make in his senior season? How will first-year head coach Bret Bielema do in replacing a legend?
Stocco?s knee might not be ready for the season opener against Bowling Green, but he?s expected to make a full recovery and play the majority of the season. Replacing Calhoun is a little trickier.
The Badgers are relying on redshirt freshman P.J. Hill to continue the great Wisconsin tradition at running back. He will have help from Thomas at left tackle, but the rest of the line is suspect. The team returns just one other starter on the offensive line.
As for Bielema? He gets a free pass on Ohio State this year, which helps a lot, but Wisconsin probably won?t quite be up to winning road games at Michigan and Iowa.
Prediction: 9-3 straight up, 8-4 against the spread
By Jeff Mason
Thu, Aug 24, 2006
Illinois Fighting Illini (+20000 to win Big Ten title)
It looks like defense will dominate in Year 2 of the Ron Zook era. A former NFL defensive coordinator at New Orleans, Zook?s defense has been well ahead of the offense during spring practice and training camp.
One of the hidden gems on defense is true freshman cornerback Vontae Davis, the brother of former Maryland standout and current San Francisco 49er Vernon Davis.
A blueprint model of the type of player Zook is known for recruiting, the younger Davis possesses the same athleticism as his brother and has been a standout during practices, even intercepting two passes during the Illini?s spring game.
Two other freshmen, defensive linemen Melvin Alaeze and Jerry Brown are also expected to be big contributors to the Illini defense. The problem is that neither player is cleared academically to play and the NCAA hasn?t allowed them to practice for the last four days.
Prediction: 2-10 straight up, 7-5 against the spread
Indiana Hoosiers (+20000)
Everyone knows Troy Smith and Ted Ginn; everyone knows Chad Henne and Steve Breaston, but the top quarterback-wide receiver combination in the Big Ten might actually be in Indiana.
Wide receiver James Hardy led the Big Ten with 89.3 receiving yards per game as a freshman last season; all of those passes coming from quarterback Blake Powers, now a junior. At 6-foot-7, Hardy provides his quarterback with a big target in the red zone.
The duo will hope to improve on the IU single season touchdown pass record Powers set last year with 22; 10 of those going Hardy?s way.
They?ll have no choice but to be better this year considering the state of the Hoosiers? running game. Powers was the team?s leading rusher last season with just 121 yards and this year, Indiana is trying to groom wide receiver Marcus Thigpen, a track star, as the starting running back.
Prediction: 5-7 straight up, 5-7 against the spread
Iowa Hawkeyes (+350)
The second favorite in the Big Ten this season isn?t Michigan, but Iowa ? and for good reason. The Hawkeyes return senior quarterback Drew Tate and junior running back Albert Young to what should be one of the conference?s best offenses.
Any problems for the Hawkeyes will most likely occur on the defensive side of the ball. Iowa lost two of the Big Ten?s leading tacklers, linebackers Chad Greenway and Abdul Hodge, to the NFL, but don?t feel bad for the Hawkeyes just yet. All-Big Ten defensive end Kenny Iwebema is back after a seven-sack sophomore season. He?s joined by junior end Bryan Mattison, who added four sacks on the weak side.
It won?t take long to find out what the Hawkeyes are made of. After opening Big Ten play at Illinois, Iowa hosts conference and national preseason No. 1 Ohio State on Sept. 30. They have a fairly easy schedule after that, with a road game at Michigan the only real obstacle. Iowa misses Penn State, another conference favorite, on the schedule this season.
Prediction: 10-2 straight up, 8-4 against the spread
Michigan Wolverines (+450)
Games at Notre Dame and at Ohio State have certainly been circled on the Wolverines? schedule. A 7-point loss to the Irish and a 4-point loss to the Buckeyes were Michgan?s biggest losses last season.
Michigan?s entire 2005 was a season of almosts. They showed promise in handing Orange Bowl champion Penn State its only loss of the season, and lost five games by a total of 21 points, but success in Ann Arbour isn?t measured in almosts ? it?s measured in Big Ten championships ? something Michigan has accomplished twice in the last five years.
All the pieces are in place for a title run this year. The Wolverines return their three big guns on offense in junior quarterback Chad Henne, junior tailback Mike Hart and senior wide receiver/kick returner Steve Breaston. The defense also returns eight starters.
Old faces don?t mean it?s just going to be more of the same for the Wolverines. There are new coordinators on both sides of the ball with former special teams coach Mike DeBord stepping in to run the offense and secondary coach Ron English running the defense.
It?s unknown what immediate changes that means for Michigan, but reports out of camp are that DeBord is focusing on execution and, as a result, has simplified the running game.
English will try to shore up a defense that allowed way too many big plays last season and he is emphasizing fast-paced intensity.
Prediction: 10-2 straight up, 6-6 against the spread
Michigan State Spartans (+1817)
MSU went just 2-6 both straight up and against the spread in Big Ten play last season and missed out on a bowl game for the second straight season.
Interestingly, the Spartans? recent struggles can be pinpointed in a single month. MSU is just 5-16 in November since 2000 and just 5-15-1 against the spread.
One of the biggest problems for the Spartans last season was the kicking game; kicker Matt Haughey made just five of 16 field goal attempts. The situation is still uncertain this season and Haughey will be replaced by true freshman in Brett Swenson.
The constant for MSU will be quarterback Drew Stanton, a Heisman frontrunner early least season after leading the Spartans to a 4-0 start and a win over Notre Dame. Even when Michigan State struggled to close out the season, Stanton continued to play well, never throwing for less than 233 yards in any game and tossing a school record 22 touchdowns.
Stanton?s go-to guy will be a familiar face, even if it was hidden for much of last season. MSU hoops star Matt Trannon, broke his jaw during the basketball season and was forced to wear a mask, but he hasn?t missed a day of practice. He?s joined by the team?s leading returning receiver Jerramy Scott, who had 49 catches for 722 yards and four touchdowns in 2005.
Prediction: 5-7 straight up, 5-7 against the spread
Minnesota Golden Gophers (+2899)
It looks like it?s the end of an era for the Minnesota running machine. The Golden Gophers have ranked in the top 5 in team rushing in each of the last three seasons, but a number of departures hurt their chances for a fourth.
Standout tailback Laurence Maroney left a year early for the NFL and his backup, Gary Russell, has been ruled academically ineligible.
Another underrated loss is Greg Eslinger, a three-year starter at center and 2005 Outland Trophy winner as the top lineman in the nation. Not only was Eslinger a devastating run blocker, he is also the only center senior quarterback Brian Cupito has ever had. Junior Tony Brinkhaus, an all-Big Ten honorable mention at right tackle last season, has big shoes to fill.
Not all is lost for Minnesota?s ground game. They still have the shifty Amir Pinnix. As a sophomore last season, Pinnix started one game for an injured Maroney and racked up 206 yards on 32 carries on his way to winning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week honors. How much of that was because of that offensive line? Only time will tell.
Prediction: 6-6 straight up, 7-5 against the spread
Northwestern Wildcats (+6000)
No program suffered a bigger loss this offseason than the Wildcats, who lost their coach, Randy Walker, to a heart attack.
Defensive coordinator Pat Fitzgerald has filled in admirably in his absence, but it?s hard to imagine the loss of Walker, as well as quarterback Bret Basanez to gradutation, will produce the Big Ten?s top offense for a second straight season.
The starting quarterback position is still up in the air at Northwestern. It was thought that sophomore C.J. Bacher would earn the spot, but he?s been hampered by a leg injury during training camp and freshman Mike Kafka has made the most of his extra snaps, putting his name squarely in the quarterback discussion.
Amid uncertainty, Northwestern?s offense remains dangerous with the presence of sophomore Tyrell Sutton. Sutton totaled 1,870 yards and 18 touchdowns for the Wildcats last season, but with the passing game not quite what it was in 2005, and a year of film at their disposal, defenses will be ready for him.
Prediction: 6-6 straight up, 6-6 against the spread
Ohio State Buckeyes (+137)
The hype machine has been rolling ever since the Buckeyes? 34-20 win over Notre Dame in January?s Fiesta Bowl. The preseason No. 1 and third favorite to win the National Championship at +730, OSU returns eight starters to an explosive offense, but just two starters on defense.
When a team is taleked about as much as the Buckeyes have been this offseason, it?s easy to start overanalyzing. The justification for Ohio State?s lofty odds is that this is a Jim Tressel defense and a Jim Tressel defense is never bad.
Is that fair? They shouldn?t have a problem with the personnel. OSU is also becoming to the Midwest what USC is to California ? a national recruiting super-magnet. You may not know the names of the players on the Buckeyes defense, but you can bet you will soon.
The bigger question might actually be on offense, where the quarterback-wide receiver tandem of Troy Smith and Ted Ginn, Jr. has huge expectations. Both players were at their best late last season with Smith throwing for over 300 yards in each of OSU?s last two games and Ginn making one third (17 of 51) of his catches in those games.
There?s no such question at running back, where junior Antonio Pittman provided a consistent ground game all season, rushing for over 100 yards in seven of 12 games and never dipping below 58 yards rushing in any game.
Now if the Buckeyes can just live up to the hype for their Week 2 game against Texas.
Prediction: 12-0 straight up, 5-7 against the spread
Penn State Nittany Lions (+617)
Penn State will be an interesting team to follow this season. The Lions have lost their versatile quarterback, Michael Robinson, but might have the best defensive player in the country in linebacker Paul Posluszny.
Robinson?s replacement at quarterback will be Anthony Morelli. The junior has just 33 career pass attempts, all in mop-up duty, but he has the complete trust of the coaching staff to guide an offense that returns six starters.
It will be Posluszny leading a defense that returns just five starters, including none on a secondary with two all-Big Ten selections and two honorable mentions last season. The new group of starters won?t get much of an adjustment period; PSU visits Notre Dame in Week 2 and plays at Ohio State in Week 4.
The strength of the team will be the linebacking corps, where Posluszny captains the strongest group in the nation. He?s joined by junior Dan Connor and senior Tom Shaw.
Prediction: 9-3 straight up, 5-7 against the spread
Purdue Boilermakers (+3364)
There?s not a lot of optimism in West Lafayette this season. The Boilermakers return just 11 starters from last season, including four on a defense that was already among the nation?s worst.
Purdue ranked 104th in the country last season by allowing 430.7 total yards per game. This was magnified by a secondary that allowed 287.3 passing yards per game.
If the Boilermakers want to win games this season, it looks like they?re going to be doing it with the offense. Purdue completely revamped its offensive coaching staff during the offseason, most notably hiring away Ed Zaunbrecher from Illinois to be its co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.
Zaunbrecher has the very raw Curtis Painter to mold at quarterback this season. Just a sophomore, Painter started the last five games for the Boilermakers last season and proved to be a threat in both running and passing game.
Purdue also has the benefit of a 13th game this season when it travels to Hawaii in it?s season finale
Prediction: 3-10 straight up, 4-9 against the spread
Wisconsin Badgers (+1370)
There are tons of questions in Madison this season. How will senior quarterback John Stocco recover from offseason knee surgery? Who is going to replace tailback Brian Calhoun?
What kind of an impact will top 5 NFL prospect Joe Thomas make in his senior season? How will first-year head coach Bret Bielema do in replacing a legend?
Stocco?s knee might not be ready for the season opener against Bowling Green, but he?s expected to make a full recovery and play the majority of the season. Replacing Calhoun is a little trickier.
The Badgers are relying on redshirt freshman P.J. Hill to continue the great Wisconsin tradition at running back. He will have help from Thomas at left tackle, but the rest of the line is suspect. The team returns just one other starter on the offensive line.
As for Bielema? He gets a free pass on Ohio State this year, which helps a lot, but Wisconsin probably won?t quite be up to winning road games at Michigan and Iowa.
Prediction: 9-3 straight up, 8-4 against the spread
