Big 12 Saturday

Jayhawk_Thor

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Had a poor start, lost a couple units, and I realize that I dont know as much about the national scene as I thought... poor preparation, I think.

I do know the Big 12 though, so I am going to stick to that for a little.

Washington +15 (@Ok.),+103, 100/103
---- Oklahoma had a lot of difficulty with UAB's mobile QB last week, and I think they are gonna have a helluva time with Stanbeck.
I think UW will stuff the box and limit Peterson's production, which UAB did very well last week... with inferior athletes.
I see a grind-it-out game with the clock running, and I think this will be a 24-14 type game.

UNLV +14 (@ISU), -108, 108/100
--- I used to pay serious credence to road teams traveling to Ames in both basketball and football... and I think, for whatever reason, that mystique has kind of faded. ISU let Toledo come into their house last week and push them to 3 overtimes, and you have seen lesser talented teams upset them in recent years at home.
I REALLY like UNLV. They were one of my sleeper teams in the preseason to play on during '06. Rocky Hinds is the real deal, and they have an athletic team.
I think they can go to Ames and put a scare in the Cyclones.

Colorado +0 (CSU), +107, 50/53.50
--- I wasnt able to catch any of the CU game from last week... I heard it was just a horrific performance. I refuse to believe they are that terrible. This is a team with talent who has a great coaching staff. I am willing to give them a mulligan... but still, I cant fathom how they lost to the SECOND BEST D-1AA SCHOOL FROM MONTANA! Mind boggling.
I think they bounce back in this one, though. Hawkins will have them ready.

Florida Atlantic +21 (@KSU), -110, 110/100
---- I have friends that go to KSU that were at the game last week and were SHOCKED to see how Gawd-awful the Wildcats really played last week. For those that havent heard, they had to stop a 2 point conversation late against Illinois St. to win by a point.
Not only that, but the guys I talked to said KSU was dominated the entire game on both sides of the ball.
Not a ringing endorsement from a diehard fan.
FAU has enough talent to hang around. I like their running attack and they have a Michigan St. transfer at QB. I think they can keep this one respectable.

Kansas -23.5 (ULM), -110, 165/150
--- Biggest play of the week.
I am not only a diehard fan of this team, I also occasionally write about them for the student newspaper, so if you want to write this off as a homer pick, thats cool, you wont hurt my feelings. I have some good reasons for it, though.
*KU played AWFUL in their opening game against patsy NWSU, and still won by 31 points. They had two muffed punt attempts that allowed NWSU incredible field position, but they held them to FG's both times. I dont even think they need to bring their "B" game to the stadium to cover this number, much less their "A" game.
*KU's defense is not nearly as bad as was expected by most people after a lot of defections... the new LB's are very good, and the DL is much improved. I think they will hold ULM to 10 points or less, assuming they arent put in terrible situations by the offense and/or ST's.
*This is the biggest reason: the offense is young and Mangino will want to get these guys experiance. Kerry Meier, the freshman QB, will probably play into the 4th quarter, no matter how out of hand the game is. And to get him reps, they could be passing and throwing downfield late in the 3rd quarter even with a decent lead. KU is very deep at WR, but they are very inexperianced too and Mangino wants to see what he has there. I think this will be his last opportunity to experiment with the pass game, and I wouldnt be surprised to see Meier go over 250 yards, even if he is yanked early.
*Another solid reason? Jon Cornish is one of the better players you have never heard of. He is our RB, from Canada, and he is going to have a huge year. I think he breaks 125-150 yards, depending on how much they play him... his backup is a true freshman and a homerun threat... so even if he gets yanked early, points could be put on the board.
I see a 41-10 type game...

Anyhow, hope I could provide some info...

GL guys.
 
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Sun Tzu

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Nov 10, 2003
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4 pretty good ones there....but I think you are giving Fatgino's boys too much credit. Didnt Kansas also have 2 special teams scores, and not really dominbate yardage last week? Monroe is awful, but no reason to have aplay of any significance here.
 

Jayhawk_Thor

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Dec 26, 2004
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Thanks Sun...

Yeah they did score two special teams TD's... but that is kind of my point... they managed to manufacture a TON of points despite playing like piss for most of the game against a bad team.
So I think that even without a great showing, they can still cover the 24.

The reason for the elevated play is because I know for a fact that KU will be more effecient on offense this week... Mangino told the media this week that he made a mistake in the first half last week by calling a far too conservative offense because he wanted to make sure Meier was comforatable. He said he is going to open it up this week, and I think Meier will be spraying lazers over the field all day. He is really going to be a very good QB.

And like I said, I think Mangino will leave players in longer than a coach would usually when they get a lead against a subpar opponent, and he will employ his entire offense into the 2nd half, instead of killing the clock... so I am not terribly worried about a backdoor.
 

Jayhawk_Thor

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Dec 26, 2004
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Just a quick general note...

I am again during the football season going to look to sell points as much as possible on Pinnacle. If interested, I have a much longer post about this that I had during basketball season... Gman is also a big proponent, which really should give you all the reason that you need that it is solid handicapping...

But in a nutshell, you give points back to the book in order to gain points on juice (obliviously the opposite of buying points).

Just as two examples from above... instead of getting Washington at +16.5 and laying 104/100, I am selling Washington to +15 and laying 100/103. Also on Colorado, instead of taking +1.5 and laying 52/50, I am taking the ML and laying 50/53.50.

As I stated in the basketball forum months back, if you start to do this, you will notice every win you get a little more, and every loss you lose a little less. And during ALL of last season of basketball, I only ONCE lost while selling points when I would have won if I hadnt. So in other words, I gained in the neighborhood of 5-8% per bet in profit, while I only lost the income of one bet total.

I just say this, again, for people to consider when betting sports... it is one sure-fire way to improve your profit this season... I think it is especially beneficial in football. Is there a differance between +16.5 and +15? Essentially, no. But for taking the latter number, I am gaining 7 points of juice. I just think that is smart capping. Just something to consider for those guys always looking for a slight edge wherever they can get it.

GL guys.
 
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