TRENDS = Events in the past that help predict the future
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
BAYLOR (S)
7-17 vs conf; 3-20 conf host
11-44 when score < 14 pts
3-8 as HF < 7
7-17 as RD
4-19 as HD > 5
4-1 in season opener
1-6 after bye (N Tex)
2-7 vs Mizzou
2-9 vs Tex AM
1-7 vs Tex Tech; series fave 8-1; 2-10 after Tex AM
1-7-1 road finale (Ok St)
Oklahoma series vis 7-1; 4-11 off BB road
COLORADO (N)
16-4 in final 4 games
3-18 when lose SU
19-9 vs good offence (score > 37 ppg)
5-10 as HF < 7
7-19 vs non-conf
8-2 as HD
11-2 as dog > 13
Col St series dog 7-1
5-12 vs Pac 10 (Wash St)
1-7 in home open (N Tex)
1-9 before bye (N Tex, Kan St)
5-0 vs Mizzou
1-5 vs Ok St; 2-6 conf home opener
5-1 vs Iowa St
15-3 road finale (Neb); 7-1 vs Neb
IOWA STATE (N)
1-10 vs good rush def (allow < 120 ypg)
17-8 vs team with lose record
1-12 after 2 or more SU losses
17-34 as RD
14-3 host vs < .500 opp
2-15-1 on turf (Okla St, Baylor, Kans St)
0-9 as conf HD
1-11 after allow > 35
Iowa series vis 13-4; 2-10 host Big 10
4-1 after Iowa (N Illinois)
1-8 in conf road open (Ok St)
0-8 vs Big 12 north (Col, Kans, Neb, Kan St, Mizz)
Kansas series host 10-2-1; 10-1 before Neb
Neb series host 10-2
KANSAS (N)
4-17 vs good def (allow < 285 ypg)
12-59 when allow > 28 pts
5-21 off home conf loss
2-12 as HD
3-13 conf host
2-11 home off DD loss
0-13 as dog > 20
1-9 before Neb (Tex Tech)
7-1 as dog off bye (Okla ?)
Oklahoma series vis 6-1; 4-1 vs Sooners
Iowa St series fave 8-2-1
1-10 before Mizzou (Tex)
1-11 in road finale (Mizzou); 1-8 final game
KANSAS ST (N)
12-3 when line +3 to -3
22-9 off SU loss
23-8 vs non-conf (0-3 LYr)
8-2 conf road
7-1 in 2nd BB road (Kans, Colorado)
10-0 vs Kans
16-4-2 vs Oklahoma; 19-4-1 in 1st 2+ home
11-0 if loss to Neb, 1-3 if win (Tex Tech)
13-3 before Colorado (Mizzou)
2-11 at Colorado
3-7 in reg season finale (Iowa St)
MISSOURI (N)
11-3 as fave 10.5 to 21 pts
40-9 when score > 28 pts
8-2 vs good def (allow < 310 ypg)
9-4 on grass (Tex, Iowa St)
8-2 conf host
Colorado series vis 6-3
13-2 after Colorado (Baylor)
possible over vs Baylor
7-1 before Kans St (Neb)
7-1 after Neb (Kans St)
8-2 in road finale; Iowa St series fave 7-2
NEBRASKA (N)
2-20-1 SU as dog
10-2 vs good def (allow < 12 ppg)
16-7 off SU loss
17-4-1 off 1st loss
28-11 off road win
10-0 after allow > 325 pass ypg
8-3 as HF
0-6 before bye (Pitt)
16-4 vs Kans; 8-2 in conf home open
1-6 after Kans St (Mizzou)
Iowa St series host 10-2
Oklahoma series host 6-1; 4-11 in road finale
1-7 vs Colorado; 1-5 in home finale
OKLAHOMA (S)
12-24 vs good run def (allow < 3.25 ypr)
11-22 revenging a loss
8-2 as dog
2-7 Sept home
12-29-1 as HF > 21
3-7 host Pac 10 (Oreg)
3-9 before Texas (Tex Tech); 8-3 vs Tex Tech; 2-8 as fave off bye
2-12-2 vs Kans St
3-7 vs Kansas
7-15 vs Ok St, series host 5-1
Tex AM series host 9-1
4-8 vs Neb
7-3 vs Baylor
OKLAHOMA STATE (S)
11-40 when allow > 28 pts
3-7 off conf road win
4-10 as RD 7.5 to 14 pts; 4-14 as RD
5-13-1 conf road
5-11-1 on grass (UCLA, Col, Tex)
Tulsa series host 12-2
13-3 before bye (SMU, Baylor)
16-9 after bye (Iowa St, Tex Tech)
9-4 vs Colorado; 1-7 before Tex AM
Mizzou series dog 8-3
15-7 vs Oklahoma; series host 5-1; 1-6 after Mizzou
Tex series vis 5-1
Tex Tech series fave 5-1
TEXAS (S)
15-4 vs poor run def (allow > 200 ypg)
41-21 on turf (Okla, Tex Tech, Kans)
11-3 off SU loss
11-2 as HF off SU loss
2-8 as fave < 10
8-2 as DD fave
4-15 in season open (N Tex)
Arkansas series dog 7-1-1
15-6-1 after bye (Rice, Tex AM)
Rice series host 8-2
Oklahoma series dog 12-4
5-0 after Oklahoma (Mizzou)
9-15 vs Tex Tech
Ok St series vis 5-1
7-1-1 vs Tex AM; 10-1 final home
TEXAS A&M (S)
3-11 vs good offence (score > 31 ppg)
4-27 when allow > 28 pts
2-10 off home win
4-10 at home L2 Yr
1-12 as HF < 10
3-15 as RD
5-15 conf road
1-37 when lose SU road
2-13-1 as dog (0-8 Lyr)
2-8 on turf (Utah, Ok St, Baylor)
2-11 road open (Utah)
10-4 home open (Wyoming)
1-7 vs non-conf
0-6 before bye (Clems, Tex Tech)
4-8 in conf open (Kan St)
1-9 before Okla St (Iowa St)
Okla series host 9-1
3-7-1 home finale (Tex Tech)
TEXAS TECH (S)
10-0 vs good run def (allow < 90 ypg)
14-1 off home loss
30-6 after SU loss; 13-1 as dog off SU loss
17-6 as fave
17-3 in 1-game home (TCU, Baylor, Okla St)
8-3 vs TCU; 9-1-1 in home open
8-3-1 in conf open (Kans)
1-6 before bye (Neb, Tex AM)
Tex series dog 7-4
7-1 vs Baylor; series fave 8-1
12-3 vs Tex AM
9-1 vs Ok St; 16-2 in home finale
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
BAYLOR (S)
7-17 vs conf; 3-20 conf host
11-44 when score < 14 pts
3-8 as HF < 7
7-17 as RD
4-19 as HD > 5
4-1 in season opener
1-6 after bye (N Tex)
2-7 vs Mizzou
2-9 vs Tex AM
1-7 vs Tex Tech; series fave 8-1; 2-10 after Tex AM
1-7-1 road finale (Ok St)
Oklahoma series vis 7-1; 4-11 off BB road
COLORADO (N)
16-4 in final 4 games
3-18 when lose SU
19-9 vs good offence (score > 37 ppg)
5-10 as HF < 7
7-19 vs non-conf
8-2 as HD
11-2 as dog > 13
Col St series dog 7-1
5-12 vs Pac 10 (Wash St)
1-7 in home open (N Tex)
1-9 before bye (N Tex, Kan St)
5-0 vs Mizzou
1-5 vs Ok St; 2-6 conf home opener
5-1 vs Iowa St
15-3 road finale (Neb); 7-1 vs Neb
IOWA STATE (N)
1-10 vs good rush def (allow < 120 ypg)
17-8 vs team with lose record
1-12 after 2 or more SU losses
17-34 as RD
14-3 host vs < .500 opp
2-15-1 on turf (Okla St, Baylor, Kans St)
0-9 as conf HD
1-11 after allow > 35
Iowa series vis 13-4; 2-10 host Big 10
4-1 after Iowa (N Illinois)
1-8 in conf road open (Ok St)
0-8 vs Big 12 north (Col, Kans, Neb, Kan St, Mizz)
Kansas series host 10-2-1; 10-1 before Neb
Neb series host 10-2
KANSAS (N)
4-17 vs good def (allow < 285 ypg)
12-59 when allow > 28 pts
5-21 off home conf loss
2-12 as HD
3-13 conf host
2-11 home off DD loss
0-13 as dog > 20
1-9 before Neb (Tex Tech)
7-1 as dog off bye (Okla ?)
Oklahoma series vis 6-1; 4-1 vs Sooners
Iowa St series fave 8-2-1
1-10 before Mizzou (Tex)
1-11 in road finale (Mizzou); 1-8 final game
KANSAS ST (N)
12-3 when line +3 to -3
22-9 off SU loss
23-8 vs non-conf (0-3 LYr)
8-2 conf road
7-1 in 2nd BB road (Kans, Colorado)
10-0 vs Kans
16-4-2 vs Oklahoma; 19-4-1 in 1st 2+ home
11-0 if loss to Neb, 1-3 if win (Tex Tech)
13-3 before Colorado (Mizzou)
2-11 at Colorado
3-7 in reg season finale (Iowa St)
MISSOURI (N)
11-3 as fave 10.5 to 21 pts
40-9 when score > 28 pts
8-2 vs good def (allow < 310 ypg)
9-4 on grass (Tex, Iowa St)
8-2 conf host
Colorado series vis 6-3
13-2 after Colorado (Baylor)
possible over vs Baylor
7-1 before Kans St (Neb)
7-1 after Neb (Kans St)
8-2 in road finale; Iowa St series fave 7-2
NEBRASKA (N)
2-20-1 SU as dog
10-2 vs good def (allow < 12 ppg)
16-7 off SU loss
17-4-1 off 1st loss
28-11 off road win
10-0 after allow > 325 pass ypg
8-3 as HF
0-6 before bye (Pitt)
16-4 vs Kans; 8-2 in conf home open
1-6 after Kans St (Mizzou)
Iowa St series host 10-2
Oklahoma series host 6-1; 4-11 in road finale
1-7 vs Colorado; 1-5 in home finale
OKLAHOMA (S)
12-24 vs good run def (allow < 3.25 ypr)
11-22 revenging a loss
8-2 as dog
2-7 Sept home
12-29-1 as HF > 21
3-7 host Pac 10 (Oreg)
3-9 before Texas (Tex Tech); 8-3 vs Tex Tech; 2-8 as fave off bye
2-12-2 vs Kans St
3-7 vs Kansas
7-15 vs Ok St, series host 5-1
Tex AM series host 9-1
4-8 vs Neb
7-3 vs Baylor
OKLAHOMA STATE (S)
11-40 when allow > 28 pts
3-7 off conf road win
4-10 as RD 7.5 to 14 pts; 4-14 as RD
5-13-1 conf road
5-11-1 on grass (UCLA, Col, Tex)
Tulsa series host 12-2
13-3 before bye (SMU, Baylor)
16-9 after bye (Iowa St, Tex Tech)
9-4 vs Colorado; 1-7 before Tex AM
Mizzou series dog 8-3
15-7 vs Oklahoma; series host 5-1; 1-6 after Mizzou
Tex series vis 5-1
Tex Tech series fave 5-1
TEXAS (S)
15-4 vs poor run def (allow > 200 ypg)
41-21 on turf (Okla, Tex Tech, Kans)
11-3 off SU loss
11-2 as HF off SU loss
2-8 as fave < 10
8-2 as DD fave
4-15 in season open (N Tex)
Arkansas series dog 7-1-1
15-6-1 after bye (Rice, Tex AM)
Rice series host 8-2
Oklahoma series dog 12-4
5-0 after Oklahoma (Mizzou)
9-15 vs Tex Tech
Ok St series vis 5-1
7-1-1 vs Tex AM; 10-1 final home
TEXAS A&M (S)
3-11 vs good offence (score > 31 ppg)
4-27 when allow > 28 pts
2-10 off home win
4-10 at home L2 Yr
1-12 as HF < 10
3-15 as RD
5-15 conf road
1-37 when lose SU road
2-13-1 as dog (0-8 Lyr)
2-8 on turf (Utah, Ok St, Baylor)
2-11 road open (Utah)
10-4 home open (Wyoming)
1-7 vs non-conf
0-6 before bye (Clems, Tex Tech)
4-8 in conf open (Kan St)
1-9 before Okla St (Iowa St)
Okla series host 9-1
3-7-1 home finale (Tex Tech)
TEXAS TECH (S)
10-0 vs good run def (allow < 90 ypg)
14-1 off home loss
30-6 after SU loss; 13-1 as dog off SU loss
17-6 as fave
17-3 in 1-game home (TCU, Baylor, Okla St)
8-3 vs TCU; 9-1-1 in home open
8-3-1 in conf open (Kans)
1-6 before bye (Neb, Tex AM)
Tex series dog 7-4
7-1 vs Baylor; series fave 8-1
12-3 vs Tex AM
9-1 vs Ok St; 16-2 in home finale
