TRENDS = Events in the past that help predict the future
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
BOSTON COLLEGE
7-0 vs poor rush team (avg < 3.25 ypr)
4-8 as HD < 7
15-7 off road conf loss
10-5 as DD HF
13-5 off SU loss
14-3 in conf home (0-3 L yr); 11-2 as fav/dog < 10
1-7 as DD RF
8-1 on grass (Ball St, Wake, Pitt, N Dame)
8-3 vs Penn St
7-3 vs ACC (Wake)
13-6 vs Pitt
2-10-1 after N Dame (Rut); 6-1 vs Rut
W Virg series host 7-1
Temple SU winner 7-0
Syracuse series fave 16-4; 7-3 in final home
CONNECTICUT
10-3 after ATS loss
15-3 on road
9-2 as DD dog
13-0 after forcing 3 or more TO?s
13-3 coming home game
PITTSBURGH
8-1 vs good off (score > 31 ppg)
9-28 off game as HD
12-25 vs team with lose record
13-4 off conf win > 10 pts
3-7 as RD < 7
4-21 as RF > 6
1-9 as HF > 20
7-5 vs MAC
8-3 as HD
3-9 in conf open (Conn)
Temple series dog 12-3; 6-13-1 vs Temp
6-13 vs B Coll; 4-8 conf home
3-6 vs Rut
8-4 after bye (Syr); 11-2 after Rut
2-10 vs N Dame; 3-6 in final road
3-7 vs W Virg
RUTGERS
7-15 vs good off (score > 31 ppg)
19-7-1 vs non-conf; 9-1 non-conf road
13-6 before bye (Kent St)
4-15-1 after bye (Syr, Navy)
4-13 vs Syr
9-1-1 away non-conf (Vand)
Temple series host 6-2; 1-8 conf home open
9-12 vs Pitt
8-16 vs W Virg
1-8 vs B Coll
6-1 in final home (Conn)
SYRACUSE
15-0 when score > 28 pts
7-19 as RD; 1-11 when RD < 7
6-12 vs good offence (score > 34 ppg)
4-13 after upset loss
8-3 as HF 14.5 to 21 pts
7-11 on grass (Purd, Buff, Virg)
17-2 in 2nd BB home (Fla St, Pitt)
5-13 conf road; 2-16 as conf RD; 3-40 when lose SU away
10-3 in road open (Purd); 10-6 vs Big 10
8-1 vs MAC
6-15 home open (Cinc); 11-2 non-conf host
13-4 vs Rut; 7-1 in conf home open
18-7 as HD; 7-3 home before bye (Fla St)
3-8 after bye (W Virg); series fave 12-3-1
19-9 vs Pitt
2-8 road before bye (Temp); 1-8-1 in 1st BB conf road
3-7 in final road (B Coll); B Coll series fave 16-4
TEMPLE
2-8 when line +3 to -3
13-24 non-conf
9-20 after score < 9 pts
3-8 as RF
7-3 as RD
4-8 as DD HD
14-1 road off BB ATS wins
2-10 off SU fave loss
4-12 vs MAC
1-7 before Pitt (B Green)
10-6 vs Pitt; 8-1-1 as HD vs Pitt; series dog 12-2; 9-2 conf open
3-8 before bye (Conn)
4-11 after bye (W Virg); 6-0 at W Virg
1-6 before B Coll (Syr)
7-3-1 in reg season finale (B Coll)
WEST VIRGINIA
10-3 vs poor offence (score < 17 ppg)
4-12 vs good run defence (allow < 2.75 ypg)
4-14 off loss < 6 pts
3-11 season open (E Car); 2-5 host non-conf
2-9 off HF SU loss
4-9 vs MAC
4-10-1 vs Mary
Va Tech series fave 7-3
16-8-1 before bye (Va Tech, B Coll)
14-6 after bye (Conn, Pitt)
Syr series fave 9-2
Rutger series host 10-3; 3-13 after Syr
Temple series vis 10-2
9-2 host B Coll; 9-4 in final home
9-2 at Pitt; 8-3 in final road
-----------------------
NOTRE DAME
15-4 vs poor defence (allow > 31 ppg)
4-27 when allow > 28 pts
9-4 as HD (1-3 L yr)
13-22 vs Big 10
16-9 as RD
Mich series dog 14-3-1
1-7 vs Mich St; 2-7 road open
17-9 vs Pac 10 (Wash, Stanf, USC)
8-3 host Purd; 10-5 in 2nd BB home
8-3 vs Stanf; 1-9 before Navy
3-11 vs Navy
10-1-1 after Navy (B Coll)
9-4 in 2nd of BB road (Tenn)
8-1 vs Pitt; 1-11 home before bye; 1-9 after SEC
2-6 vs USC
NAVY
32-13 vs team with lose record
37-15 road
1-6 when line +3 to -3
16-6 off loss < 6 pts
16-5 on turf (Tulsa, Tulane)
11-3 vs Conf USA
10-1 as RD > 20
0-5 home open; 1-8 vs ACC (Duke)
8-13 as HD
8-4 vs Air Force; 11-2 in 1st BB away
7-2 before bye (A Force, Tulane, Rut)
11-3 vs N Dame
18-9 after bye (N Dame, Rut)
5-1 vs Rice
9-2 vs Tulane
7-3 before Army (Rut)
10-3 vs Army; series fave 5-2
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
BOSTON COLLEGE
7-0 vs poor rush team (avg < 3.25 ypr)
4-8 as HD < 7
15-7 off road conf loss
10-5 as DD HF
13-5 off SU loss
14-3 in conf home (0-3 L yr); 11-2 as fav/dog < 10
1-7 as DD RF
8-1 on grass (Ball St, Wake, Pitt, N Dame)
8-3 vs Penn St
7-3 vs ACC (Wake)
13-6 vs Pitt
2-10-1 after N Dame (Rut); 6-1 vs Rut
W Virg series host 7-1
Temple SU winner 7-0
Syracuse series fave 16-4; 7-3 in final home
CONNECTICUT
10-3 after ATS loss
15-3 on road
9-2 as DD dog
13-0 after forcing 3 or more TO?s
13-3 coming home game
PITTSBURGH
8-1 vs good off (score > 31 ppg)
9-28 off game as HD
12-25 vs team with lose record
13-4 off conf win > 10 pts
3-7 as RD < 7
4-21 as RF > 6
1-9 as HF > 20
7-5 vs MAC
8-3 as HD
3-9 in conf open (Conn)
Temple series dog 12-3; 6-13-1 vs Temp
6-13 vs B Coll; 4-8 conf home
3-6 vs Rut
8-4 after bye (Syr); 11-2 after Rut
2-10 vs N Dame; 3-6 in final road
3-7 vs W Virg
RUTGERS
7-15 vs good off (score > 31 ppg)
19-7-1 vs non-conf; 9-1 non-conf road
13-6 before bye (Kent St)
4-15-1 after bye (Syr, Navy)
4-13 vs Syr
9-1-1 away non-conf (Vand)
Temple series host 6-2; 1-8 conf home open
9-12 vs Pitt
8-16 vs W Virg
1-8 vs B Coll
6-1 in final home (Conn)
SYRACUSE
15-0 when score > 28 pts
7-19 as RD; 1-11 when RD < 7
6-12 vs good offence (score > 34 ppg)
4-13 after upset loss
8-3 as HF 14.5 to 21 pts
7-11 on grass (Purd, Buff, Virg)
17-2 in 2nd BB home (Fla St, Pitt)
5-13 conf road; 2-16 as conf RD; 3-40 when lose SU away
10-3 in road open (Purd); 10-6 vs Big 10
8-1 vs MAC
6-15 home open (Cinc); 11-2 non-conf host
13-4 vs Rut; 7-1 in conf home open
18-7 as HD; 7-3 home before bye (Fla St)
3-8 after bye (W Virg); series fave 12-3-1
19-9 vs Pitt
2-8 road before bye (Temp); 1-8-1 in 1st BB conf road
3-7 in final road (B Coll); B Coll series fave 16-4
TEMPLE
2-8 when line +3 to -3
13-24 non-conf
9-20 after score < 9 pts
3-8 as RF
7-3 as RD
4-8 as DD HD
14-1 road off BB ATS wins
2-10 off SU fave loss
4-12 vs MAC
1-7 before Pitt (B Green)
10-6 vs Pitt; 8-1-1 as HD vs Pitt; series dog 12-2; 9-2 conf open
3-8 before bye (Conn)
4-11 after bye (W Virg); 6-0 at W Virg
1-6 before B Coll (Syr)
7-3-1 in reg season finale (B Coll)
WEST VIRGINIA
10-3 vs poor offence (score < 17 ppg)
4-12 vs good run defence (allow < 2.75 ypg)
4-14 off loss < 6 pts
3-11 season open (E Car); 2-5 host non-conf
2-9 off HF SU loss
4-9 vs MAC
4-10-1 vs Mary
Va Tech series fave 7-3
16-8-1 before bye (Va Tech, B Coll)
14-6 after bye (Conn, Pitt)
Syr series fave 9-2
Rutger series host 10-3; 3-13 after Syr
Temple series vis 10-2
9-2 host B Coll; 9-4 in final home
9-2 at Pitt; 8-3 in final road
-----------------------
NOTRE DAME
15-4 vs poor defence (allow > 31 ppg)
4-27 when allow > 28 pts
9-4 as HD (1-3 L yr)
13-22 vs Big 10
16-9 as RD
Mich series dog 14-3-1
1-7 vs Mich St; 2-7 road open
17-9 vs Pac 10 (Wash, Stanf, USC)
8-3 host Purd; 10-5 in 2nd BB home
8-3 vs Stanf; 1-9 before Navy
3-11 vs Navy
10-1-1 after Navy (B Coll)
9-4 in 2nd of BB road (Tenn)
8-1 vs Pitt; 1-11 home before bye; 1-9 after SEC
2-6 vs USC
NAVY
32-13 vs team with lose record
37-15 road
1-6 when line +3 to -3
16-6 off loss < 6 pts
16-5 on turf (Tulsa, Tulane)
11-3 vs Conf USA
10-1 as RD > 20
0-5 home open; 1-8 vs ACC (Duke)
8-13 as HD
8-4 vs Air Force; 11-2 in 1st BB away
7-2 before bye (A Force, Tulane, Rut)
11-3 vs N Dame
18-9 after bye (N Dame, Rut)
5-1 vs Rice
9-2 vs Tulane
7-3 before Army (Rut)
10-3 vs Army; series fave 5-2
