By T.Sevransky
Bet Against: Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines went 11-2 last year, but were awful in their two most important games, failing to step up in class against Ohio State or USC in their regular season finale and in the Rose Bowl.
Michigan?s two most impressive victories both came early in the campaign, beating Notre Dame by 26, then handing Wisconsin their only loss of the season in their Big Ten opener, a two touchdown Michigan win. The reality is that the Big Ten was down last year and the Wolverines non-conference slate wasn?t all that tough. This year, they?ll face tougher competition right from the get-go, with tests against Oregon, Notre Dame and Penn State all in September.
Lloyd Carr has a long and storied track record as an underachiever when the Wolverines are highly touted. Since Michigan?s national championship back in 1997, they?ve come into the season with a top 5 ranking on several previous occasions, failing to live up to the hype each time.
Last year was the first time in the 21st century that Michigan didn?t suffer at least three losses. They?ve lost their last four bowl games and five of their last six meetings with Ohio State, consistently unable to step up their level of play against elite level competition. Rumors about Carr?s health continue to swirl around Ann Arbor and many observers expect this to be his last year coaching the Wolverines. Extra hype and a lame duck head coach make for a bad combination for this program.
Michigan?s offense looks spectacular on paper. They?ve got Chad Henne back at QB, poised to set all kinds of records in his fourth year as the starter. Heisman Trophy candidate Mike Hart is back for his senior year at running back. The offensive line is loaded, led by senior left tackle Jake Long, the top-rated player at his position in the country. Michigan averaged 29 points per game last year, and they could easily top that figure in 2007.
But Michigan?s success in 2006 was predicated on their defense, not their offense. And few teams in the country lost more defensive talent than the Wolverines did this past offseason. Alan Branch, Lamar Woodley, David Harris and Leon Hall were all drafted into the NFL in the first or second round. Three other starters are gone as well, leaving gaping holes on the line, the linebacking corps and in the secondary. Remember, this defense was torched in losses to Ohio State and USC, allowing 74 points and more than 900 yards of offense in those two ballgames alone. There?s little reason to expect anything but a continued decline from Michigan?s defense in the upcoming campaign.
The rest of the Big Ten is slowly but surely getting better. Penn State is poised for a stellar season. Illinois will be significantly better than they?ve been in recent years. Michigan State is going to be tougher than they?ve been, and Wisconsin continues to search for respect from both the oddsmakers and the general public, despite a consistent, continued run of success. The Wolverines have lost three of their last five against Notre Dame, and, as mentioned above, five out of six against the hated Buckeyes. The Wolverines can?t afford to take Oregon lightly either ? the Ducks upset the Wolverines in Eugene when these two teams last met.
Michigan may well win 10 or 11 games again this season although I would bet them 'under' in terms of victories before I bet them 'over'. But, most importantly, I expect the Wolverines to be vastly overvalued from a pointspread perspective. We see this every year in college football. A team has their well-publicized skill-position players back, without the same level of their supporting cast. TV and print pundits are drawn by the marquee names on the roster, driving up the pointspread. But the team as a whole isn?t good enough to cover those inflated numbers.
Michigan should be a home favorite on seven different occasions this year. The Wolverines have suffered through three consecutive losing seasons against the spread as a home favorite, and with their defensive concerns, I?d be willing to bet that they?re on track for a fourth consecutive losing pointspread record at home in 2007. Three of their four road games have "trap" written all over them. And Michigan doesn?t have a bye week again this year, playing 12 consecutive Saturdays from September through November.
Again, this is just a first impression ? we?re not even in July yet. But I?ve got red flags galore surrounding the Michigan program this year, and expect fading the Wolverines at every reasonable opportunity to be a profitable strategy for the 2007 campaign.
Bet On: Illinois Fighting Illini
Since Kurt Kittner guided Illinois to the Rose Bowl back in 2001, the Illini have steadily gotten worse. Illinois went 5-7 in 2002, then followed that up with 1-11 and 3-8 marks, leading to the dismissal of former head coach Ron Turner. The Ron Zook era began with 2-9 and 2-10 seasons over the past two years. Forget the straight-up records ? Illinois hasn?t enjoyed a winning season against the pointspread since 2002 and is just 15-28 against the spread (ATS) over the last four seasons.
When a team has been down as long as the Illini have been down, progress generally results in a strong ATS record. Zook has been a tireless recruiter ? there?s no question that the talent base in Champaign is greater than it?s been since their Rose Bowl campaign. We saw Zook?s recruits at Florida win a national championship this past January. This year, we can expect Zook?s recruits to begin taking the program back to respectability.
Illinois had two wins in Zook?s first year on the job and two wins in his second. But the Illini were far more competitive last year than they were in ?05. Unfortunately for them that competitiveness didn?t always show up in the final score. In ?05, all nine of Illinois? losses came by more than two touchdowns. Last year, they lost four games by a touchdown or less. Illinois was dynamite as a double-digit underdog. They upset Michigan State outright as 26-point road dogs. They covered with ease against Iowa as 21 point dogs. Penn State, at +18.5, Wisconsin at + 21.5, and Ohio State at +24 were all easy pointspread winners. Illinois suffered only one loss by more than 17 points in ?06 after losing eight times by 17 or more in ?05.
The stats clearly showed improvement from ?05 to ?06, on both sides of the football. Illinois improved their points per game allowed from 39.5 in ?05 to 26.8 in ?06. Only four teams scored more than 30 points against them last year, following a season in which ten of their eleven opponents scored 30 or more against them. They improved dramatically against the run, from 5.5 yards per carry allowed down to 3.3 last year. Opposing quarterbacks completed 67 percent of their passes against the Illini in ?05, but only 55 percent last year. These are major, dramatic defensive improvements. With nine starters back, along with a bevy of speedy, talented recruits, this has the makings of the best Illinois defense since their Rose Bowl season.
Led by dual-threat quarterback Juice Williams, Illinois improved their yards per carry on offense dramatically last year as well. They gained 4.0 yards per carry as a team in ?05, but upped that number to 5.2 yards per carry last year. You don?t find many teams with 2-10 records that outrushed their opponents by a substantial margin (5.2 ypc to 3.3 ypc). These types of numbers clearly show expected improvement in 2007 in terms of both wins and losses, and against the spread.
Illinois has lost the turnover battle in each of the last five seasons, a whopping -58 in turnovers during that span, including -15 in turnovers last year. Now, Juice is on the loose, with a full year?s worth of starting experience. Williams has a dramatically improved supporting cast for ?06, with a revamped receiving corps and a steady, experienced offensive line. There?s little reason to think that the Illini won?t be able to improve their turnover differential in ?07, leading to dramatic improvement from last year?s 19.6 points per game on offense.
Illinois faces most of their toughest foes at home. Their road schedule is rather friendly, with visits to Syracuse, Indiana and Minnesota. You can pencil the Illini in for a bowl berth right now ? the only question is whether their turnaround is going to be dramatic enough to put them in contention for a New Year?s Day bowl. This team went 5-0 ATS down the stretch as a double-digit underdog last year, but 0-5 as a favorite. Look for those results as a favorite to improve dramatically in 2007 as the Illini finally shake the stigma of longtime losers.
Bet Against: Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines went 11-2 last year, but were awful in their two most important games, failing to step up in class against Ohio State or USC in their regular season finale and in the Rose Bowl.
Michigan?s two most impressive victories both came early in the campaign, beating Notre Dame by 26, then handing Wisconsin their only loss of the season in their Big Ten opener, a two touchdown Michigan win. The reality is that the Big Ten was down last year and the Wolverines non-conference slate wasn?t all that tough. This year, they?ll face tougher competition right from the get-go, with tests against Oregon, Notre Dame and Penn State all in September.
Lloyd Carr has a long and storied track record as an underachiever when the Wolverines are highly touted. Since Michigan?s national championship back in 1997, they?ve come into the season with a top 5 ranking on several previous occasions, failing to live up to the hype each time.
Last year was the first time in the 21st century that Michigan didn?t suffer at least three losses. They?ve lost their last four bowl games and five of their last six meetings with Ohio State, consistently unable to step up their level of play against elite level competition. Rumors about Carr?s health continue to swirl around Ann Arbor and many observers expect this to be his last year coaching the Wolverines. Extra hype and a lame duck head coach make for a bad combination for this program.
Michigan?s offense looks spectacular on paper. They?ve got Chad Henne back at QB, poised to set all kinds of records in his fourth year as the starter. Heisman Trophy candidate Mike Hart is back for his senior year at running back. The offensive line is loaded, led by senior left tackle Jake Long, the top-rated player at his position in the country. Michigan averaged 29 points per game last year, and they could easily top that figure in 2007.
But Michigan?s success in 2006 was predicated on their defense, not their offense. And few teams in the country lost more defensive talent than the Wolverines did this past offseason. Alan Branch, Lamar Woodley, David Harris and Leon Hall were all drafted into the NFL in the first or second round. Three other starters are gone as well, leaving gaping holes on the line, the linebacking corps and in the secondary. Remember, this defense was torched in losses to Ohio State and USC, allowing 74 points and more than 900 yards of offense in those two ballgames alone. There?s little reason to expect anything but a continued decline from Michigan?s defense in the upcoming campaign.
The rest of the Big Ten is slowly but surely getting better. Penn State is poised for a stellar season. Illinois will be significantly better than they?ve been in recent years. Michigan State is going to be tougher than they?ve been, and Wisconsin continues to search for respect from both the oddsmakers and the general public, despite a consistent, continued run of success. The Wolverines have lost three of their last five against Notre Dame, and, as mentioned above, five out of six against the hated Buckeyes. The Wolverines can?t afford to take Oregon lightly either ? the Ducks upset the Wolverines in Eugene when these two teams last met.
Michigan may well win 10 or 11 games again this season although I would bet them 'under' in terms of victories before I bet them 'over'. But, most importantly, I expect the Wolverines to be vastly overvalued from a pointspread perspective. We see this every year in college football. A team has their well-publicized skill-position players back, without the same level of their supporting cast. TV and print pundits are drawn by the marquee names on the roster, driving up the pointspread. But the team as a whole isn?t good enough to cover those inflated numbers.
Michigan should be a home favorite on seven different occasions this year. The Wolverines have suffered through three consecutive losing seasons against the spread as a home favorite, and with their defensive concerns, I?d be willing to bet that they?re on track for a fourth consecutive losing pointspread record at home in 2007. Three of their four road games have "trap" written all over them. And Michigan doesn?t have a bye week again this year, playing 12 consecutive Saturdays from September through November.
Again, this is just a first impression ? we?re not even in July yet. But I?ve got red flags galore surrounding the Michigan program this year, and expect fading the Wolverines at every reasonable opportunity to be a profitable strategy for the 2007 campaign.
Bet On: Illinois Fighting Illini
Since Kurt Kittner guided Illinois to the Rose Bowl back in 2001, the Illini have steadily gotten worse. Illinois went 5-7 in 2002, then followed that up with 1-11 and 3-8 marks, leading to the dismissal of former head coach Ron Turner. The Ron Zook era began with 2-9 and 2-10 seasons over the past two years. Forget the straight-up records ? Illinois hasn?t enjoyed a winning season against the pointspread since 2002 and is just 15-28 against the spread (ATS) over the last four seasons.
When a team has been down as long as the Illini have been down, progress generally results in a strong ATS record. Zook has been a tireless recruiter ? there?s no question that the talent base in Champaign is greater than it?s been since their Rose Bowl campaign. We saw Zook?s recruits at Florida win a national championship this past January. This year, we can expect Zook?s recruits to begin taking the program back to respectability.
Illinois had two wins in Zook?s first year on the job and two wins in his second. But the Illini were far more competitive last year than they were in ?05. Unfortunately for them that competitiveness didn?t always show up in the final score. In ?05, all nine of Illinois? losses came by more than two touchdowns. Last year, they lost four games by a touchdown or less. Illinois was dynamite as a double-digit underdog. They upset Michigan State outright as 26-point road dogs. They covered with ease against Iowa as 21 point dogs. Penn State, at +18.5, Wisconsin at + 21.5, and Ohio State at +24 were all easy pointspread winners. Illinois suffered only one loss by more than 17 points in ?06 after losing eight times by 17 or more in ?05.
The stats clearly showed improvement from ?05 to ?06, on both sides of the football. Illinois improved their points per game allowed from 39.5 in ?05 to 26.8 in ?06. Only four teams scored more than 30 points against them last year, following a season in which ten of their eleven opponents scored 30 or more against them. They improved dramatically against the run, from 5.5 yards per carry allowed down to 3.3 last year. Opposing quarterbacks completed 67 percent of their passes against the Illini in ?05, but only 55 percent last year. These are major, dramatic defensive improvements. With nine starters back, along with a bevy of speedy, talented recruits, this has the makings of the best Illinois defense since their Rose Bowl season.
Led by dual-threat quarterback Juice Williams, Illinois improved their yards per carry on offense dramatically last year as well. They gained 4.0 yards per carry as a team in ?05, but upped that number to 5.2 yards per carry last year. You don?t find many teams with 2-10 records that outrushed their opponents by a substantial margin (5.2 ypc to 3.3 ypc). These types of numbers clearly show expected improvement in 2007 in terms of both wins and losses, and against the spread.
Illinois has lost the turnover battle in each of the last five seasons, a whopping -58 in turnovers during that span, including -15 in turnovers last year. Now, Juice is on the loose, with a full year?s worth of starting experience. Williams has a dramatically improved supporting cast for ?06, with a revamped receiving corps and a steady, experienced offensive line. There?s little reason to think that the Illini won?t be able to improve their turnover differential in ?07, leading to dramatic improvement from last year?s 19.6 points per game on offense.
Illinois faces most of their toughest foes at home. Their road schedule is rather friendly, with visits to Syracuse, Indiana and Minnesota. You can pencil the Illini in for a bowl berth right now ? the only question is whether their turnaround is going to be dramatic enough to put them in contention for a New Year?s Day bowl. This team went 5-0 ATS down the stretch as a double-digit underdog last year, but 0-5 as a favorite. Look for those results as a favorite to improve dramatically in 2007 as the Illini finally shake the stigma of longtime losers.
