Big Tuesday
- Thread starter Nickelback
- Start date
c'mon Nickel...I have LSU as higher on my list!!! I dont find it hard to believe that MSU is favored in this game. I would think the betting public is going to bet them due to the fact that they are MSU and they need a win.
LSU is a great home team, and Florida has struggled on the road, but a number 4 team favored by only 1.5!!
Gotta go with LSU!
LSU is a great home team, and Florida has struggled on the road, but a number 4 team favored by only 1.5!!
Gotta go with LSU!
The Big Tease said:c'mon Nickel...I have LSU as higher on my list!!! I dont find it hard to believe that MSU is favored in this game. I would think the betting public is going to bet them due to the fact that they are MSU and they need a win.
LSU is a great home team, and Florida has struggled on the road, but a number 4 team favored by only 1.5!!
Gotta go with LSU!
Everyone would like to "struggle" on the road like Florida has this year. Get this: On the road this year, the Gators beat: Kansas, Maryland, Flor St, Mia Fl, Miss St., So Car and lost only to West Virg. If that's struggling on the road, many teams would love to struggle.
That said, I think LSU will give them all they want in Baton Rouge.
GL to all.
That LSU is so tempting, but I can see Florida maybe just winning this game. They are playing preety decent the gators are, even though they dont cover at home, mother fer's, but still I just see them getting a big win here. You think LSU will be able to hang in their with florida shooting so well lately. Could be iffy, but i might lean towards florida.
Good luck to all of you
BIG ON MSU $$$
Good luck to all of you
BIG ON MSU $$$
florida is only 3-4 ATS on the road...so while they have beaten some good competition...they seem to not play to their accustomed level when they play teams they should beat
Example: LSU
Go Tigers!!
Example: LSU
Go Tigers!!
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Date Home Pts Away Pts SU Line
1/18/2003 South Carolina 75 Florida 77 W -10 W
1/7/2003 Mississippi St 66 Florida 74 W -7 W 138 O
12/21/2002 Miami Fla 93 Florida 94 W -16 W
12/14/2002 Maryland 64 Florida 69 W -5 W 147 U
12/6/2002 Florida St 57 Florida 58 W 8.5 L
12/3/2002 West Virginia 68 Florida 66 L 17 L
11/29/2002 Kansas 73 Florida 83 W -3 W 157 U
The database shows Florida as 6-1 on the road (5-2 ATS). They have beaten LSU five straight times. LSU has lost three straight going into tonight. LSU did beat Arizona, though, which is huge.
1/18/2003 South Carolina 75 Florida 77 W -10 W
1/7/2003 Mississippi St 66 Florida 74 W -7 W 138 O
12/21/2002 Miami Fla 93 Florida 94 W -16 W
12/14/2002 Maryland 64 Florida 69 W -5 W 147 U
12/6/2002 Florida St 57 Florida 58 W 8.5 L
12/3/2002 West Virginia 68 Florida 66 L 17 L
11/29/2002 Kansas 73 Florida 83 W -3 W 157 U
The database shows Florida as 6-1 on the road (5-2 ATS). They have beaten LSU five straight times. LSU has lost three straight going into tonight. LSU did beat Arizona, though, which is huge.
heleanth:
That Florida game vs Kansas was at the pre season NIT @Madison Square Garden, it was not a Florida road game, just pointing that little error out, a tough game to call IMO, as are most of these high profile tv games, but I may chime in later when I finish the work on some games
That Florida game vs Kansas was at the pre season NIT @Madison Square Garden, it was not a Florida road game, just pointing that little error out, a tough game to call IMO, as are most of these high profile tv games, but I may chime in later when I finish the work on some games
heleanth
Unless Florida was a DD dog v South Carolina & Miami-Fl those should both be losses. Just to clarify those records.
I saw that W VA team in Vegas & if they are hitting from outside they are a decent team -- cashed on them twice last week!
As far as tonights game, I think the Gators win. LSU losers of 3 straight & have been outrebounded by over 35 boards in their last 2 games (81-45). Also haven't scored over 65 pts in a game since they beat up on Centenary @ home.
LSU has played only 3 games v name competition @ home (AZ, Ole Miss & MSU). Dont think they will turn it around v a good Floorida team that isnt missing any key players.
Unless Florida was a DD dog v South Carolina & Miami-Fl those should both be losses. Just to clarify those records.
I saw that W VA team in Vegas & if they are hitting from outside they are a decent team -- cashed on them twice last week!
As far as tonights game, I think the Gators win. LSU losers of 3 straight & have been outrebounded by over 35 boards in their last 2 games (81-45). Also haven't scored over 65 pts in a game since they beat up on Centenary @ home.
LSU has played only 3 games v name competition @ home (AZ, Ole Miss & MSU). Dont think they will turn it around v a good Floorida team that isnt missing any key players.
Definitely a tough game to cap but for some reason, I like Florida in this one as well. Will probably just stay away from it though. . .
Will be back later this afternoon with the rest of my picks. . .
Will be back later this afternoon with the rest of my picks. . .
You are correct, Mansa. My mistake, I copied the info out of the database without looking at it too closely.
Big Tease, I see now that your 3-4 record was ATS. Thanks to everyone that adds information to this board and I hope everyone wins tonight!!
GL and thanks to Nickelback for letting us use his thread (which started out about Michigan St., didn't it?).
Big Tease, I see now that your 3-4 record was ATS. Thanks to everyone that adds information to this board and I hope everyone wins tonight!!
GL and thanks to Nickelback for letting us use his thread (which started out about Michigan St., didn't it?).
good idea nickelback
im staying away from it, but if i had a choice
FLORIDA BABY!!!!
gators are gonna eat them like i eat pop tarts in the morning.
im staying away from it, but if i had a choice
FLORIDA BABY!!!!
gators are gonna eat them like i eat pop tarts in the morning.
Not gonna play Michigan State as a very big play, but just a big play. Like this game a lot, but a lot of question marks on both teams including Wright from Indiana. How will he play after sitting out? We have no idea, therefore no reason to lay it all down on Michigan State.
But here's why I'm still playing Michigan State big:
Home team in this series has won the last six in a row, eight out of nine if you go back further. What I really like about the Spartans tonight is that everyone believes they are struggling. . . well, that is only half true: they are struggling on the road, not at home! I still believe most cappers undervalue home court advantage. . .especially with Michigan State. IU only has one win on the road this year and their only ATS win on the road. Difficult to come to MSU after they just lost to their rival and expect to come out with a win.
Also a system play which hasn't worked the last two times out, but we'll keep trying for now.
Still looking at the rest and will post shortly
But here's why I'm still playing Michigan State big:
Home team in this series has won the last six in a row, eight out of nine if you go back further. What I really like about the Spartans tonight is that everyone believes they are struggling. . . well, that is only half true: they are struggling on the road, not at home! I still believe most cappers undervalue home court advantage. . .especially with Michigan State. IU only has one win on the road this year and their only ATS win on the road. Difficult to come to MSU after they just lost to their rival and expect to come out with a win.
Also a system play which hasn't worked the last two times out, but we'll keep trying for now.
Still looking at the rest and will post shortly
Almost posted Florida for tonight laying the single point. . . they have beaten LSU the last five games they have played and are riding a nice winning streak. The problem is that it looks too easy. Nearly 80% are on Florida tonight and that is a major concern. LSU has been playing poor basketball at home and on the road, so why is this line so inviting? Why did the line drop to 1 from 2 when 80% are on Florida? Looks like the play is LSU or stay away. I still feel Florida wins tonight, so I'm going to do be smart and simply stay away. Besides, much better games coming up. . . especially one tomorrow
Rest of my plays are all average:
Clemson +3 over Wake Forest. . . solid home team. . . great game against Maryland, now they get the win they should have on Saturday
Marshall +4 over Ball State
Toledo +4 over Western Michigan (Toledo has won the last five agaisnt Western. . . now they are a dog at home?)
LaSalle +12 over Penn. . . expect a solid rebounding advantage for LaSalle which should help keep them close in this one unless Penn shoots like they did against USC!
Gl all!
Rest of my plays are all average:
Clemson +3 over Wake Forest. . . solid home team. . . great game against Maryland, now they get the win they should have on Saturday
Marshall +4 over Ball State
Toledo +4 over Western Michigan (Toledo has won the last five agaisnt Western. . . now they are a dog at home?)
LaSalle +12 over Penn. . . expect a solid rebounding advantage for LaSalle which should help keep them close in this one unless Penn shoots like they did against USC!
Gl all!
nickel
nickel
two things i am thinking of right now are:
Kentucky @ Bama
and
Uconn @ St John's
Both had low lines or was at pk and in both cases the better team prevailed rather easily. Seems like linemakers are playing with our minds as of late with these "pk" em games with ranked road teams vs. good to decent home teams. For what it's worth I'm taking Florida for very small amount here.
GL.
And what do you think about Texas AM +17.5 ? I'm liking this one!
nickel
two things i am thinking of right now are:
Kentucky @ Bama
and
Uconn @ St John's
Both had low lines or was at pk and in both cases the better team prevailed rather easily. Seems like linemakers are playing with our minds as of late with these "pk" em games with ranked road teams vs. good to decent home teams. For what it's worth I'm taking Florida for very small amount here.
GL.
And what do you think about Texas AM +17.5 ? I'm liking this one!
If A+M could rebound the ball, I'd give them a shot. . . also, for as much as the public likes the favorites, they like A+M tonight. Rarely do I go with the public when they like a dog because they are basically saying they think the line and the points are a gift.
But that's just me. . . good luck if you decide to play it!
But that's just me. . . good luck if you decide to play it!
nickelback:
youre completely correct on "public dogs"
going against public dogs can be very profitable. lots of times, the line is set there for a reason. having said that- texas was definitely a public dog last night- and they covered from the opening tip to the final horn. but i definitely agree with what you are saying
youre completely correct on "public dogs"
going against public dogs can be very profitable. lots of times, the line is set there for a reason. having said that- texas was definitely a public dog last night- and they covered from the opening tip to the final horn. but i definitely agree with what you are saying
Yeah, Texas yesterday was one of the few that I take but its only if I have a certain feel for a team. To be honest, I thought it would be Texas coming on late, not Kansas. . . but I'm not about to complain
Kansas impressed me with how they were able to play in the 2nd half. . . I really thought they would fold again.
Kansas impressed me with how they were able to play in the 2nd half. . . I really thought they would fold again.
