Buffalo is very undervalued early on this year and it will come hard and dominate this overvalued Minnesota team this afternoon. Both teams botched leads at home last week, but it will be Buffalo that bounces back in winning fashion. Minnesota is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference roadies and this team just can't generate enough offensively.
Minnesota has gone nine quarters plus half an overtime session without scoring an offensive TD. That's 152:17 of game time and that's just horrible. The Minnesota ground game has been unspectacular and I don't think QB Brad Johnson will be able to put up big numbers against a Buffalo defense that ranks seventh in the league in defending the pass. Minnesota is not a good offensive team that can put a lot of points on the board and they won't score much today.
Buffalo last week became the first team in league history to lose at home after having a 300-yard passer and 150-yard rusher. That's frustrating, but the good news is that Buffalo can and will move the football on this Minnesota defense that has been consistent up to a point as Minnesota does give up big plays. J.P. Losman will move the ball through the air and Willis McGahee will eclipse the 100-yard plateau once again.
Last year, Buffalo went 4-1 ATS when laying points with wins over Kansas City and Miami. This team will control the clock today and force turnovers. They let a home win get away from last week against New York, but won't do such today against an indoor team that is just 2-4 ATS in its last six games played outdoors. This is a great spot for Buffalo and they will blow out Minnesota in the second half in this easy win and cover!
New Orleans at 3-0 SU/ATS is for real and with a one-game lead in the division, they won't suffer a letdown against rival Carolina. New Orleans comes into this one 16-3-1 ATS in its last 20 division road games and the visitor has covered nine straight in this series. Carolina is laying way too many points in this one and New Orleans will be in this game throughout. Basically, it will surprise me none if the visitors from the Crescent City win this one outright.
Carolina has been murder on its money supporters at home as the team is on ATS slides in Charlotte of 4-8 in division games (including a seaosn-opening loss to Atlanta) and 5-15 when laying points. The team has been poor at defending the run (27th in the league) as the absence of middle linebacker Dan Morgan (concussion) has hurt. Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush will make plays on the ground and we know that Drew Brees has settled in nicely in New Orleans. He's spread the ball around nicely and the team's offenisve line has been stellar in allowing just one sack to Atlanta Monday night.
Carolina's offense has been a disappointment so far and they'll have their hands full with this New Orleans team that has 12 sacks on the year to rank as one of the league's leaders in that category. New Orleans has covered in four straight visits to Charlotte and they're getting way too many points in this one. Watch New Orleans play tough throughout and easily stay inside this number.