Big Week in CBB

[Nickelback]

This is going to be a very big week for me. . . I see several teams getting too many points based on what I believe are false public perceptions since consensus reports are clearly one sided with the favorites and Vegas had to know this would happen! So lets begin with this one for Friday:

BYU +21.5 over Boise State (Above Average play)

Hmmmm, lets think about this one. Boise State already had their day in the sun against Oregon State and everyone saw Boise State cover with ease. So why should it be any different agaisnt BYU right? At least that's why over 70% are taking Boise State. We all know how much Vegas loves to give up money on Thursday night games that everyone watches and plays for action.

The big plays are all on Saturday. . . I'll get them up early but still have a few considerations first.

 

[gman2]

nickel:

im every bit the contrarian that you are, but one thing ive learned with boise is that public numbers dont matter. theyre one of the few teams who almost spit on consensus numbers. the public is on them every game at home, but it doesnt keep them from smashing teams and covering high numbers with alarming regularity. for whatever reason, this is one team that vegas cant seem to accurately peg. it annoys me as a dog player, so i just avoid the majority of their games.

 

[Dirk Diggler]

Gman is right.
I've always done well playing Boise St. no matter
what amount of people are betting on them.
My bookie says that Boise State is the one team that
they always lose $ on.

 

[Nickelback]

I agree with both of you and I have played Boise in the past and have been very successful. I was on Boise when they played Oregon State because it looked like a good spot for OSU to letdown after LSU and Boise to shine. I just feel like BYU can compete against this team given their schedule up to this point and over 21 points is huge when you consider backdoor covers and everything else that can happen.

Still not one of my big plays, but definitely worthy of an above average wager IMO.

 

[Nickelback]

Miami/Houston under 14 (-120) 4th quarter AVERAGE

This is a key number when the Canes are up by 14. . . it will take more than 2 scores for us to lose this bet in the fourth and I expect the Canes to slow the offense down but play some inspired defense after giving up that TD in the final seconds of the first half.

 

[Nickelback]

Arizona/Washington State under 39 BIG

Arizona's offense is definitely struggling and WSU is 17th in the country in total defense. But I believe Arizona's D will be just as effective considering how one dimensional WSU is (except for Idaho). The strengh of Arizona's D is their secondary and pass D. They are very weak up front but as they proved against Wisconsin, you must have a proven RB to be effective and move the chains. WSU doesn't have a proven RB unless you consider Idaho to be a worthy opponent.

I am also looking at a 7 point teaser with Arizona +10 and under 46 because of how well Arizona matches up with WSU in this one.

 

[gman2]

I would love to know the percentages of games that go under to total when Vegas hangs a number in the 30s on a college matchup. The total often begs for over money because its so low, but I gotta think the majority of the CFB totals in the 30s do indeed stay under. I cant see how this one will crack 30, let alone 39 so I think its a great play. GL nickel.

 

[Nickelback]

Thanks bud. . . also looking at Wisky/Penn St. under 39.5 and maybe teasing Penn State to +10 and under 46.5. Can't see that one being a shootout either as long as Penn State holds on to the ball somewhat.

 

[bjfinste]

Already looking ahead to college hoops?

 

[Nickelback]

Oh, I'm getting there but college football for now is going quite well. . . hopefully it continues! Personally I think North Carolina is coming in overrated as they will likely be preseason #1 but maybe the Heels will prove me wrong!

 

[bjfinste]

Nickel... I just saw your post was title Big Week in CBB instead of CFB.

I think you are dead-on about the Heels. They'll be good, but not worthy of a No. 1 ranking. Then again, I'm the same guy who posted the thread, "UConn will NOT win the National Title this year" two weeks into the season after seeing their atrocious FT shooting, so what the hell do I know?

Glad to see you're having a good season so far...

 

[Nickelback]

Well it looks like BYU will cover with ease so we're off to a good start with two in the bag. Here's my big Saturday:

Arizona/Washington State under 39 Super Big/Best Bet as mentioned above with reasons

Iowa +14 (buy whatever you have to) over Michigan Very Big . . . Michigan will not be able to pull an ASU for two reasons: 1. Lloyd Carr doesn't have the balls. 2. Michigan doesn't have a senior QB. They will still try to establish the run and should be in a squeaker once again.

Illinois +21.5 over Purdue BIG. . . I know others are sold on Purdue but I'm not yet. Too many points here and a backdoor cover possibility

Kentucky +20 over Florida BIG. . . Gators will not be as pumped up to win this one by a significant margin and Kentucky seems to play the Gators close.

NC State +10 (buy the points) over Virginia Tech BIG. . . again, we're paying a little but picking up huge points just like Iowa. This NC State team is much better than their showing against Ohio State.

Will play: Oregon State BIG for anything over 7 and will wait to see how the line moves in the morning. As much as I wouldn't mind seeing ASU win the Pac this year, I do not believe they are as good as they looked against Iowa. Big 10 schools have always had problems traveling and Oregon State should have an easier time scoring than Iowa.

 

[kickserv]

lots of action....way kickserv likes it.........best of luck to ya!

 

[gman2]

great call on byu nickel. thats the first time i have EVER seen a team take a haymaker from boise and not flinch. was refreshing to see. byu wasnt intimidated in that environment. obviously byu has played in big games, but that place is not easy to win. makes me sick that boise won the game SU though. i hate seeing teams get thoroughly outplayed only to escape in the final seconds.

 

[pt1gard]

nickel, agree and bet the wsu Under,

gl
gregg

 

[Nickelback]

No kidding. . . can't believe they didn't win that game and the FG kicker came up huge in the first half but missed a basic gimme since they were all lined up. That's college football for you right?!?! GL tomorrow gman

 

[Clem D]

Great Job!!

 

[Nickelback]

Adding Ole Miss -4 2nd half Above Average

 

[bear]

Nickleback

Great Job!

bear