Billy Blastoff picks 11/28/05

[Billy Blastoff]

I wont bet until all college teams have at least 5 games under their belt. I have been updating my data but still are unable to add qfactor as teams haven't played enough yet. I hope to beat my 68% win % of last year.

Record to date 4-2 but will wipe slate clean starting 2nd week in Dec when I start to bet.

I will not post again till next Monday as I am taking a week of and heading to Florida to relax and clear my head. My job as a software developer often can make you go batty :cursin:

Based on raw data and no q factor involved my
Plays for today are:

UNC Charlotte -15 line should be -10 1/2
Depaul +2 line should be +5 1/2

 

[JIMMYBOY]

good to see you back billy, I am looking forward to follow every pick you give this year

good luck and have a nice time

jimmy

 

[bdaniel1]

So the bet is on UNCC at -15 despite a 4.5 gap in the line?

Depaul is showing +1 now... still a "play" by your system?

Thanks Billy - just trying to understand.

 

[Coolgi24]

Here we go again with the not understanding....

Basically he figures out what he thinks the line should be. If there is a number that is way off...such as Depaul +1 when it should be (according to his numbers) +5 1/2 then he figures that Vegas knows something that we don't know and is trying to get the public to take the favorite in this case.

What makes it hard to understand is that we always look for a line that is wrong and then bet it. Billy looks to find a line that is wrong and then bets against it. It really is an interesting way of doing this if you think about it....basically you're letting Vegas do most of the work.

Hope this helps and doesn't confuse you more.

 

[Clem D]

bdaniel do a search from last season and you will get it. You are probably the 420th poster to ask this. Just research it yourself to avoid getting the nasty responses others did last season.

 

[bdaniel1]

Clem/Cool - Thanks guys - I've got it.

 

[Billy Blastoff]

So the bet is on UNCC at -15 despite a 4.5 gap in the line?

Depaul is showing +1 now... still a "play" by your system?

Thanks Billy - just trying to understand.

Makes no difference if line moves, a play is based on vegas opening line not line movement. All selections are equal I dont believe any game is worth more than another. Its still a big ball trying to go in a small rim :s4: