Blue Jays have struck out on their top pitching prospects for the past decade or longer, but will put the ball in burly 6'4" 225 lb righty Trey Yesavage for the opener in Tampa. With his high, over-the-top delivery, he's had control issues since college, especially on his 4-seam fastball. He'll average 93-94 mph on the heat (sometimes touching 98), and adds a splitter and a slider to his arsenal. Need to see how he performs at this level, obviously, but his pitches do not appear to have a lot of movement on them, save for the downward action on everything he throws. His athletic ability has also been criticized, so it is unclear as to how well he can field the position. His 160 K and 8 HR allowed in 98 IP is impressive, and he has maintained those numbers with each progression through the system, from low A through AAA, but his WHIP has noticeably crept up with each level jump.
Saw a few breakdowns but this one covered some key bases, and has some video of his work:
pitcherlist.com
Rays are countering with Joe Boyle and if recency means anything, this could be a good spot for a Jays 1st5 play or maybe even the 1st5 over. All starts, Boyle's last 3 trips have resulted in 9.1 IP, 17 H, 15 ER, 4 HR, 10 BB, and 13 K; all 3 short outings with a WHIP of 3.00 in each instance (actually 3,3, and 2.70 for the eldest, in Seattle). His numbers were considerably better at home until his most recent trip, vs Cardinals, where they smoked him for 5 earnies in the 2nd inning.
No Bo Bichette for Jays (10-day DL), but they have been getting great production from secondary sources like Varsho, Clement, Loperfido, and even (surprise-surprise) Barger. Springer appears to be an extra-base hit machine, lately, but after seeing his over 1.5 TB (total bases, not location) at +110, I notice that in his 12 September games, he's only achieved 2+ in 6 of them; an 9 early in the month, and 8 yesterday, simply addresses the myth of the myth of the hot hand...I never did finish that essay (fawgetaboutit).
Jays games have been weird, lately, with them being no-hit for several innings before turning things on, at least a few times. Other games they address their scoring needs--quite emphatically--in the early innings. Notable, too, that they are not nearly as good on the road this season (.794 OPS home, .755 road, not to mention their .667 win percentage at home and .500 on road). Rays 3-7 their past 10 is encouraging (as a Jays fan), but they still have their 38-36 home record, and they recently swept the Mariners, at home, after their previous road trip (from Washington, while they were at Cubs, yesterday). Before Rays recent 6-game road trip, they did drop three straight at home to the Indians.
For Blue Jays at -125, I think I need to see the kid get his feet wet first. Rolling the dice on the +134 runline is a little more attractive as Jays subpar bullpen suggests that most of their road wins are by multiple runs, though I still dream (help, if possible) to find any splits (home/away) for 1-run wins.
Jays present mojo, and support for the kid, would have me more inclined to try a 1st5 at -0.5 +108, or better yet some 2-teamer with a probably safe 1st5 pk at -128. Not so much as I'm sold on Yesavage, but more due to Joe Boyle having horrendous start in 3 straight and 4 of his past 5.
Speaking of Boyle, one prop very tempting is his Pitching Outs at under 13.5 at +100. That'd be 4.1 IP. He looked solid in a start way back in April (5 innings vs Atl), was put in the bullpen for a stretch, and has since returned with 5 more starts, only once making it over that 4.1 IP (5 innings vs Dodgers). I mentioned that 5-run 2nd inning in his last, at home to Cardinals, but the Rays did let him complete a full 4 innings before the yank. If Rays fear their bullpen usage (was calm yesterday, but well-used both Friday and Saturday), they might leave him for 5 regardless of any battering, but it sure seems less likely than a 50% chance, which is what I would need to tackle that under 13.5 pitching outs at +100.
Probably overkill for one game. I needed to reroute my head, and seemed to work.
I sure wouldn't try to talk anybody out of that over 8.5 at +101 (at Pinnhead, at least) for this one. Neither starter should provide length and the Jays bullpen is always an adventure.
Rock on.
I hope this needs no edit. I finally smashed my subwoofer to oblivion. I'd better submit before smashing laptop.
Saw a few breakdowns but this one covered some key bases, and has some video of his work:
Prospect Breakdown: Trey Yesavage
This is an analysis and breakdown of the dynasty value for Toronto Blue Jays prospect pitcher, Trey Yesavage.
pitcherlist.com
Rays are countering with Joe Boyle and if recency means anything, this could be a good spot for a Jays 1st5 play or maybe even the 1st5 over. All starts, Boyle's last 3 trips have resulted in 9.1 IP, 17 H, 15 ER, 4 HR, 10 BB, and 13 K; all 3 short outings with a WHIP of 3.00 in each instance (actually 3,3, and 2.70 for the eldest, in Seattle). His numbers were considerably better at home until his most recent trip, vs Cardinals, where they smoked him for 5 earnies in the 2nd inning.
No Bo Bichette for Jays (10-day DL), but they have been getting great production from secondary sources like Varsho, Clement, Loperfido, and even (surprise-surprise) Barger. Springer appears to be an extra-base hit machine, lately, but after seeing his over 1.5 TB (total bases, not location) at +110, I notice that in his 12 September games, he's only achieved 2+ in 6 of them; an 9 early in the month, and 8 yesterday, simply addresses the myth of the myth of the hot hand...I never did finish that essay (fawgetaboutit).
Jays games have been weird, lately, with them being no-hit for several innings before turning things on, at least a few times. Other games they address their scoring needs--quite emphatically--in the early innings. Notable, too, that they are not nearly as good on the road this season (.794 OPS home, .755 road, not to mention their .667 win percentage at home and .500 on road). Rays 3-7 their past 10 is encouraging (as a Jays fan), but they still have their 38-36 home record, and they recently swept the Mariners, at home, after their previous road trip (from Washington, while they were at Cubs, yesterday). Before Rays recent 6-game road trip, they did drop three straight at home to the Indians.
For Blue Jays at -125, I think I need to see the kid get his feet wet first. Rolling the dice on the +134 runline is a little more attractive as Jays subpar bullpen suggests that most of their road wins are by multiple runs, though I still dream (help, if possible) to find any splits (home/away) for 1-run wins.
Jays present mojo, and support for the kid, would have me more inclined to try a 1st5 at -0.5 +108, or better yet some 2-teamer with a probably safe 1st5 pk at -128. Not so much as I'm sold on Yesavage, but more due to Joe Boyle having horrendous start in 3 straight and 4 of his past 5.
Speaking of Boyle, one prop very tempting is his Pitching Outs at under 13.5 at +100. That'd be 4.1 IP. He looked solid in a start way back in April (5 innings vs Atl), was put in the bullpen for a stretch, and has since returned with 5 more starts, only once making it over that 4.1 IP (5 innings vs Dodgers). I mentioned that 5-run 2nd inning in his last, at home to Cardinals, but the Rays did let him complete a full 4 innings before the yank. If Rays fear their bullpen usage (was calm yesterday, but well-used both Friday and Saturday), they might leave him for 5 regardless of any battering, but it sure seems less likely than a 50% chance, which is what I would need to tackle that under 13.5 pitching outs at +100.
Probably overkill for one game. I needed to reroute my head, and seemed to work.
I sure wouldn't try to talk anybody out of that over 8.5 at +101 (at Pinnhead, at least) for this one. Neither starter should provide length and the Jays bullpen is always an adventure.
Rock on.
I hope this needs no edit. I finally smashed my subwoofer to oblivion. I'd better submit before smashing laptop.
