BOUNCE BACK Part II

[JEFF]

10-11 YTD, -10.4 units after a crappy week 2...

1.N.O. +1, 4 units
This CHI team is so banged up, losing Daniels,McQuarters, now Washington and maybe Big Cat. I think N.O. proves to be too much for them. I hate to bet against the Bears, as they kick my ass most of the time, but I think this Saints team is for real. I see them going to 3-0.

2. COLTS - 11.5 5 units
This Houston team is going to struggle to put points on the board all season. Of course, Idy's defense is nothing to write home about, but I think they use this game -- before a bye week -- to boost up their defensive stock. Theyve struggled so far but its been against teams that have run the ball and controlled the time of possession. Houston is not that kind of team, and they are the worst offense in the league. Indy giving a lot of points on the road is risky b/c of their defense, but I think they win big here.


Back later ...

 

[JEFF]

adding

adding

3.ARIZONA +2 3 units


4.Seahawks +6.5 5 units


5.Teaser: MIN pick + Den -2 3 units

6.GB/DET over 43 4 units

7.WASH +9 3 units

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Jeff,

great picks, if the jets come in I am all over Seattle like a good looking horse thief!!

 

[JEFF]

Adding

CIN + 7 3 units
Over 41 4 units

 

[yyz]

Nice looking day, so far!

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Who is Mr Consistent now?

:thumb: :clap:

Good Job

 

[JEFF]

thanks guys...

thanks guys...

Decent so far, but I feel likeit should have been better -- one point loss on the Washington game, a close call on the Cards and a pathetic effort by the Vikings ... but woulda could shoulda, thats why its called gambling!

That teaser looked so sweet when I played it,just goes to show you why teasers should be called "losers" The best looking teasers don't even win 50% of the time.


BTW Anthony: nice try, but you're easily still Mr. Consistent

 

[JEFF]

Nothing like ruining a winning day with some late night action.

4-5, +.2

 

[GM]

Hey Jeff,

Good calls today. Sorry it ended on a downer. I took the Under on the night game to juice out for the day.

It's funny how sometimes you can just watch the first 2 or 3 minutes of a game, and instantly you know who "has it" and who doesn't. At least that's what tonight's game was like for me. I knew after maybe a half dozen plays Cinci had no shot whatsoever. But I couldn't pull the trigger on Atlanta because I didn't trust my own judgement! Arrrrrrrgh.

I think I'm spending too much time worrying about "the public", and not enough time just going with what I really feel will happen.

Continued good luck to you, we'll get 'em yet.

 

[JEFF]

Greg

Greg

Re: The Public, my thoughts exactly.Sometimes I get too consumed in going agaist the grain. This line looked fairly easy, everyone out there was on the Falcons, yet the line didnt go up.

As it turned out, it just was that easy.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Jeff,

did you see lines for next week?

Pha is a 21 point fav over Houston!!

 

[JEFF]

yeah thats nuts. Right now I'm too busy trying to figure out the best play for MNF. What are you thinking?

 

[GM]

Actually, I saw a lot of people here on the Bengals...and I'm looking at my stats wondering "What are these people seeing, am I missing something??". I wanted Atlanta, but when things are not going well the thought process gets messed up, I start doubting myself. Plus I force myself to go dog first...I really don't like laying points anymore, it just ISN'T usually that easy for teams to cover the big #'s even though on paper they look much better. So instead I settled on the Under...and I'd have to say I feel a bit lucky I nailed that. Sure it went Under by 10, but a defensive score certainly wasn't out of the question the way the Cinci QB's were throwing. Looked in doubt til about half way thru the 4th.

Tonight I am sort of torn. Leaning StL's way. But I see factors pointing both ways.

In StL's favor...It's now or never. I am not a big proponent of "must-win" scenarios, and in that weak division it's not QUITE must-win yet, but it's getting close. Seems unlikely to me, as poor as StL has looked, that they fold up the tent and go home this early. I also feel TB is not quite the team they were last year and will continue to struggle on offence.

In TB's favor...History, Monday Night home dog, and a line that is asking us to take the Rams. StL not nearly as quick on real grass. Bucs D is probably capable of duplicating the job Denver and NYG did on them.

One thing I will say, which may sway me towards the Rams. I cannot see TB winning this game large, I don't think they have the ability to do that. However, I CAN see StL busting out and laying a whooping on them. That potential alone makes betting the Rams tempting.

 

[JEFF]

Yeah, those must-win situations will burn if you if you put too much stock in them. A lot of times, the "must-win" team loses and you end up saying "what the hell is wrong with them, they needed this game!"


I'm leaning Rams but this is a really tough one, for a lot of the reasons you listed. If the Rams get the running game going a bit and the defense plays well, I think they win. But it does look like they want STL $$. So I'm torn as well. Even the total is a ?, although I'd take the under if you put a gun to my head.

Still doing some looking.