Bowl betting strategy?

[Nick Douglas]

Am I crazy or is it going to be easy money to fade the SEC this year? The perception is that they are bulletproof but as a conference they only went 8-7 vs. BCS conferences in the regular season. Plus they played 33 of 48 non-conference games vs. non-BCS conference schools, so they are coming off light schedules.

I think most bettors don't realize how overrated the SEC is so these bowl lines should be a point or so off from where they should be.

 

[dlvlsu]

Good strategy Go Ahead!!

 

[dawgball]

I think this is a safe way to play merely for the fact that betting against favorites during bowl season is usually a profitable strategy.

 

[Cie]

Last season, SEC went 6-3 SU and ATS in bowls. I agree that this season there have been very few big ooc wins outside of LSU over VT. It would appear that the SEC is down a bit this season.

Hawaii plus big points vs. LSU or Tenn would be a big play for me.

 

[Skipper]

Overrated SEC went 6-3 LY and 6-3 ATS and many west coasters used that same strategy and lost their ass including many who thought Florida would get slapped in the title game.

The 3 losses were against Ok. St. by 3, Wisky by 3, and Penn St. by 10.

The PAC 10 went 3-3 and I think 2-4ATS (Mizzou-Or. St?) Losses were to Hawaii by 17:142smilie , BYU by 30:142smilie , and FL. St. by 17:142smilie

I will agree that it is harder for SEC teams to cover, much like the Big 10 because those two conference have tie ins to much better bowls therefore will play more competitive teams. Neither plays in the Holiday, Emerald, Hawaii, or Las Vegas Bowls. SEC and Big Ten play more in the New Years Day Bowls.

Adopting a strategy because you resent a conference or team is not that smart. But we all know why this and all your threads are started as I have stated already.

 

[AR182]

i don't know if you're kidding or not nick,but i think it's a ridiculous betting strategy to bet against a particular conference in the bowls...each game should be taken independently...

 

[Nick Douglas]

I don't know, AR. I remember taking all Pac-10 teams one year (whatever year Wazzu, UW and OSU all did great) and doing OK. That season was coming off a terrible Pac-10 season the year before and the public hadn't caught on to the fact that the conference was up overall.

I really am being serious with this post. I am not even saying that the SEC (or LSU, as Cle Grant calls them) will lose all their bowl games, just that there could be value based on the perception of the public. I mean, we all know that LSU will beat Hawaii if they play them, but I am talking about covering here. Plus you will probably see Georgia and Florida as big favorites that could have difficulty covering vs. Va. Tech and Wisconsin, respectively.

Maybe I should've started a fake MJ's account before making this post so that my past comments didn't color a legitimate idea.

 

[Cie]

I am not even saying that the SEC (or LSU, as Cle Grant calls them)

You are a strange one, ND.

 

[taoist]

I'll second that one, Cie. :nooo:

 

[Nick Douglas]

Cle,

Just joshing ya, buddy. Didn't mean it in a mean way at all.

 

[greed]

SEC

SEC

I hope you realize two of those games will be against the Big Ten teams. This has been a real down year for the Big Ten. Being from Wisconsin with them being one of the two teams that the SEC will play against I think its a terrible strategy. I will take any of the top SEC teams and give the seven to Wisconsin. Wish you luck in the Bowls but stay away from betting with the Big Ten teams.

 

[dawgball]

Plus you will probably see Georgia and Florida as big favorites

I will be VERY surprised if Georgia is a TD favorite over any respectable team. But I'm still shaking my head at the farce of us being #4 in the country.

I think Florida will be a great fade because the Tebow and Meyer tandem get so much press.