bowl picks (higher ranking and strength of schedule angle)

[dusky]

i got this info from another forum, thank you hwnhrt for all your hard work!
last year these picks were 12-1-1 with this angle

Georgia Tech
Cincy
UCLA
UAB
Virginia
Toledo
Oregon St.
Minnesota
Arizona St.
Louisville
Miami
Georgia
Florida St.
Texas
Oklahoma

good luck

 

[hwnhrt]

dusky...thanks

here's the numbers to go with the picks...good luck with your bets and I hope this years picks will do just as good as last year.

RANK + SOS
North Texas (52/116) vs. Southern Miss (49/61) SoMiss -5 31-10 W
Georgia Tech (47/13) vs. Syracuse (55/64)
Cincinnati (50/46) vs. Marshall (53/94)
Wyoming (60/83) vs. UCLA (43/25)
UAB (37/77) vs. Hawaii (56/90)
Fresno State (18/97) vs. Virginia (17/54)
Toledo (23/95) vs. Connecticut (40/100)
Oregon State (39/9) vs. Notre Dame (48/20)
Alabama (45/35) vs. Minnesota (44/28)
Purdue (25/44) vs. Arizona State (21/23)
Louisville (4/71) vs. Boise State (7/107)
Miami (15/7) vs. Florida (29/57)
Wisconsin (14/56) vs. Georgia (12/16)
Florida State (16/30) vs. West Virginia (30/81)
Michigan (11/22) vs. Texas (6/4)
Southern Cal (2/45) vs. Oklahoma (1/14)

RANK ONLY
Memphis (24/73) vs. Bowling Green (19/102)
Oklahoma State (26/18) vs. Ohio State (28/10)
Iowa State (59/49) vs. Miami OH(33/99)
Colorado (42/12) vs. UTEP (35/89)
N. Carolina (54/1) vs. Boston College (32/79)
New Mexico (38/69) vs. Navy (31/93)
California (8/63) vs. Texas Tech (22/6)
Northern Illinois (36/113) vs. Troy (46/105)
Texas A&M (34/8) vs. Tennessee (20/36)
LSU (10/65) vs. Iowa (13/38)
Utah (5/98) vs. Pittsburgh (27/82)
Auburn (3/51) vs. Virginia Tech (9/31)


hwnhrt

 

[dusky]

thank you hwnhrt for printing out all the numbers for everyone to see. I think these picks will win at a good percentage. Hopefully it will do as well as last year.
thanks again hwnhrt

 

[hwnhrt]

dusky

dusky

I've reposted the whole write up to give the guys a little more info on the "system".

=============

After reading the other thread that Phil refers to, I was curious to see what kind of results I would get using the #'s from a site I've been visiting the last couple of years. I originally wanted to look at the SOS #'s but got sidetracked and the following is the results.

2003 - 2004 BOWL GAMES/RESULTS

TEAM line RANK/SOS score
Mem-3 (39/96) No. Tx (42/87) ...Memphis 27-17
Mia-OH ? (5/75) Lville (43/81) ...Mia-OH 49-28
NCSt -11 (35/47) Kansas (73/76) ...NCST 56-26
TCU ?(21/80) Boise (4/98) ....Boise 34-31
Ore St +2'(33/54) N. Mex(49/70) ...Oreg St 55-14
Hou +11(62/72) Haw (50/83) ...Hawaii 54-48
Nwestern +6 (67/35) BG (26/105) ...BG 28-24
Cal +3(51/11) Va Tech (32/60) ...Calif 54-49
VA -3(29/30) Pitt (36/44) ... .....Virg 23-16
Neb -3(18/40) Mich St (48/29) ...Neb 17-3
TTech -10(31/25) Navy (61/114) ...TT 38-14
UCLA +3(64/9) Fres St (46/73) ... Fresno 17-9
Tex -9'(8/31) Wash St (16/16)....Wash St 28-20
WISC +3(52/15) AUB (30/48) ....Aub 28-14
MIN -5'(19/63) ORE (44/28) ......Minn 31-30
UTAH -2'(20/50) SO MISS (34/66) ...Utah 17-0
MIZZ +3(38/58) ARK (22/27) .....Ark 24-14
BC +2'(40/34) COL ST (55/69) ....BC 35-21
IOWA +4(13/19) FL (37/41) .....Iowa 37-17
WV +4'(41/26) MARY (11/64) ....Mary 41-7
PUR +3'(24/21) GA (12/22) .....Geo 34-27
OK ST +3(27/65) MISS (17/43) ....Miss 31-28
CLEM +5 (25/42) TENN (15/24) ....Clem 27-14
TUL +7(57/84) GA TECH (54/10) ....Geo Tech 52-10
LSU +6'(2/38) OK (3/3) ....LSU 21-14
FSU -2(9/1) MIA (6/14) .....Mia 16-14
MICH +7(10/23) USC (1/12) ....USC 28-14
K ST -7(14/77) OHIO ST (7/13)....Ohio St 35-28


Results if played higher ranked team (teams in bold )

S/U 25 - 3 -
Losers Virg Tech, Texas and Tenn

ATS 19 - 6 - 1 (not including Mia Oh and Boise because I couldn't find a line on the games)
Losers Virg Tech, Texas, Tenn, Hawaii, BG and Minn / Miss tie

Favs 12 - 6 - 1
Dogs 7 - 0

Results if played teams with higher rank + higher ranking SOS (teams with both #'s in bold)
S/U 11 - 1 - 1 Loser Tenn, Miss tie
ATS 11 - 1 -1 Loser Tenn, Miss tie
Favs 7 - 1 -1
Dogs 4 -0


This is the list of games for this year. Don't know if the results will be the same as last year, but wouldn't it be nice if it did?? Anyways, the teams that are in bold are the teams to play on.


TEAM RANK/SOS

Southern Cal (2/45) vs. Oklahoma (1/14)
Auburn (3/51) vs. Virginia Tech (9/31)
Michigan (11/22) vs. Texas (6/4)
Utah (5/98) vs. Pittsburgh (27/82)
LSU (10/65) vs. Iowa (13/38)
Florida State (16/30) vs. West Virginia (30/81)
Texas A&M (34/8) vs. Tennessee (20/36)
Wisconsin (14/56) vs. Georgia (12/16)
Miami (15/7) vs. Florida (29/57)
Louisville (4/71) vs. Boise State (7/107)
Purdue (25/44) vs. Arizona State (21/23)
Alabama (45/35) vs. Minnesota (44/28)
Northern Illinois (36/113) vs. Troy (46/105)
California (8/63) vs. Texas Tech (22/6)
New Mexico (38/69) vs. Navy (31/93)
N. Carolina (54/1) vs. Boston College (32/79)
Oklahoma State (26/18) vs. Ohio State (28/10)
Colorado (42/12) vs. UTEP (35/89)
Iowa State (59/49) vs. Miami OH(33/99)
Oregon State (39/9) vs. Notre Dame (48/20)
Toledo (23/95) vs. Connecticut (40/100)
Fresno State (18/97) vs. Virginia (17/54)
UAB (37/77) vs. Hawaii (56/90)
Wyoming (60/83) vs. UCLA (43/25)
Cincinnati (50/46) vs. Marshall (53/94)
Memphis (24/73) vs. Bowling Green (19/102)
Georgia Tech (47/13) vs. Syracuse (55/64)
North Texas (52/116) vs. Southern Miss (49/61)

I've separated them into 2 catagories-


Teams that are the higher ranked team according to sites computer....

TEAM/RANK/SOS
Oklahoma (1/14)
Auburn (3/51
Texas (6/4)
Utah (5/98)
LSU (10/65)
Tennessee (20/36)
Miami (15/7)
Louisville (4/71)
Florida State (16/30)
Northern Illinois (36/113)
Navy (31/93)
Boston College (32/79)
Oklahoma State (26/18)
UTEP (35/89)
Miami OH(33/99)
Georgia (12/16)
Bowling Green (19/102)



Teams that are the higher ranked team +higher SOS...

TEAM/RANK/SOS
Arizona State (21/23)
Minnesota (44/28)
Oregon State (39/9)
Toledo (23/95)
Virginia (17/54)
UAB (37/77)
UCLA (43/25)
Cincinnati (50/46)
Georgia Tech (47/13)
Southern Miss (49/61)




I also did the 2002-2003 Bowl games but did not have any ATS lines so I only have the S/U #'s. Playing on the higher ranked team went 11-2. Playing on the higher ranked team + higher SOS went 10-5. Total -21-7

gl with your bets
h

 

[bigdad2]

Interesting numbers to digest. My only problem is that the 2003 numbers are inaccurate as they show the final rankings and SOS for teams. I would be interested to see the numbers BEFORE the bowl games were played and if they possibly change the W/L record. Thanks for the post and best of luck this year...

 

[hwnhrt]

bigdad2

bigdad2

thanks for pointing that out...i emailed the owner and asked if he had the rank/sos prior to the bowl games. if he has the numbers, i'll redo last years bowl games.

gl
h

 

[hwnhrt]

bigdad2

bigdad2

This is the reply I got from the owner of the site...

The difference between before and after bowl games was probably minimal since SOS is a season-long average of all of a teams' opponents' power ratings. We only archive the year-end rankings. I try to archive as much material as I can but the manageability would get way out of hand if I expanded much more beyond what is already there.

I appreciate the kind comments on ths site and am glad you find it useful as a research tool.

Let's see how this year's list do.

Again, thanks for pointing out the error.

gl
h

 

[trey03rod]

The Boise St game line opened at 8 and closed at 11.5

I would count Mia-OH a winner because there is no way they were favored by more than 21.


I can dig up lines from 2002 if you have the other info.

 

[Joe De]

Bowl games

Bowl games

Plays:

Memphis.....played early
Uab......played early
Navy+2' and over 42 STRONG on the over
Arizona State...average play....
Toledo...average play
Louisville.....Strong play
Virginia Tech.....still beleive the're under rated


Note:
Navy plays well against Mountain West teams

Georgia....hearing some on campus chatter
and alumni..Wisconsin will get waxed in the 1st half

 

[hwnhrt]

trey

thanks for the #'s...someone else gave them to me, I just didn't update the original post.

If it's not too much trouble for you, yes, please post the lines from 2002 if you have them. I already did the chart for the bowl games, just couldn't do the ATS #'s.

I always looked forward to seeing "The Sheet". It was on my list of systems I used to compare with mine. Good luck with your bets....

h

 

[hwnhrt]

Hey dusky!!
Sorry for invading your thread! Please keep us updated on the win/loss record as the games are played.

Who have you bet on so far? Good luck throughout the bowl season!

h

 

[bigdad2]

FYI - Miami(Oh) line was 13.5 and was an EASY winner LY. Best of luck in the coming bowl season.

 

[trey03rod]

Cin -7.5
N Tex

Marshall -2
Louisville

Tex Tech -4.5
Clemson

N Mexico
UCLA -9.5

Hawaii -14.5
Tulane

Bos College -4
Toledo

Pitt
Ore St -1.5

So Miss
Ok St -10

Neb -6.5
Ole Miss

Kan St -17
Ari St

W Virg -5.5
Virg

Colorado -7
Wisky

Ark -9
Minn

Wake
Ore -8.5

Iowa St
Boise -12.5

Wash -1.5
Purdue

Col St -3
TCU

Geo Tech -6.5
Fresno

Tenn
Maryland pick

AF
Virg Tech -11

LSU
Texas -10

Florida
Mich -1.5

NC ST -2
Notre Dame

Auburn
Penn St -7.5

OK -5
Wash St

Florida St
Georgia -7.5

Iowa
USC -4.5

Ohio St
Miami- FL -11.5

 

[dusky]

hwnhrt, you are welcome to reply to this thread at anytime. Thank you for sharing the info with us.
I bet on Georgia Tech last night, it was a nice winner. I plan to bet on all the teams that has the higher rankings and stronger strength of schedule.

bowl record with this angle: 2-0
Southern Mississippi winner
Georgia Tech winner

 

[hwnhrt]

Trey...thanks for the lines. I'll work on the list when I have some spare time...kinda busy with the holidays and family poppin' in visiting. I'm curious to see what kind of results(ATS) we'll get. Have a safe and happy holiday season!!

hey dusky...higher ranked B Green....another winner!

h

 

[Bluemound Freak]

bowl record with this angle: 2-0
Southern Mississippi winner
Georgia Tech winner

Si Senior..........Make that 3-0.

Will be riding this pony till she bucks!

Thanks for the plays