Bowl Thread

[Smitty]

bowl season is so bittersweet... we're near the end of another season of college football.

wyoming (+10.5) 2 units. for a while now, fresno has risen and fallen to the level of their competition. i have to believe their bowl game really was the win at illinois, in that amazing finish. will they really be fired up to play wyoming? this is similar to last year, when they lost to a colorado st team they should have beaten handily (also in the new mexico bowl).

central florida (+2.5) 1 unit. this one almost seems too easy. rutgers had every chance to win their last game against wvu and go to a bigger bowl game. instead, here they are in the st petersburg bowl (can't these bowl game come up with more original names?) against central florida. after a slow start to the year, UCF's only losses were to texas and miami.

 

[Smitty]

New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans Bowl

middle tennessee st (+3.5) 1 unit. not really loving it, but this is based mostly on motivation. southern miss is playing in their second consecutive new orleans bowl. for mid tenn st, this is only the 2nd bowl game in school history. midd tenn st was the better ATS team this year, going 9-3. however, they were only 2-3 ATS as a dog.

 

[Smitty]

Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas Bowl

dammit, this was going to be a big play for me. the wind is a little worrisome though.

byu (+3) 1 unit. if not for the wind, i really loved the cougars (who doesn't love cougars?). i see a serious motivation issue for the beavers. wait, cougars vs beavers? sounds like a dream i had the other night. anyway... oregon st was very close to a trip to the rose bowl. instead, they lost to their bitter rivals. now they get to spend some time in vegas before playing... who are we playing again? exactly. all this is irrelevant though. i have uncovered evidence that shows byu is clearly the better team. bear with me, because it's rather lengthy.

byu beat wyoming
wyoming beat fresno st
fresno st beat illinois
illinois beat minnesota
minnesota beat northwestern
northwestern beat iowa
iowa beat arizona
arizona beat oregon
oregon beat oregon state

i mean, really, what more proof do you need?

 

[Smitty]

Poinsetia Bowl

Poinsetia Bowl

damn wind cost me a little money last night.

cal (-3) 1 unit. i'm starting to like cal more and more tonight, but i'm keeping it at one unit. nothing very complex about this play... everything i see on espn is telling me to take utah... 59% of the country (as of last night) like utah to win... cal got the big win over stanford before being humiliated by washington... how can you play the bears here? well, this utah team is simply not as good as the last few years. a win over byu in their season finale would have made their year. i have to believe the 3-point loss stuck with them for a while.

if you really want to simplify it... an unranked team favored over a ranked team. gotta do it.

i may not get to post for the next few days, so i'll put up my next couple plays in a bit.

 

[Morris]

Played cal on the unranked theory. GL tonite!!

 

[Coach_K]

Like your ratioale, started the day on Utah but going with Cal. Just cant bet on Freshman QB

 

[Smitty]

wow, i know cal has been bad at times this year, but it's really impressive to see the complete collapse tonight. up 14-0... against a shellshocked true freshman qb... and BAM. wtf happened? well, maybe that's why i only played it for one unit.

Hawaii Bowl
smu (+12.5) 1 unit. hard to go against nevada's ridiculous offense, but smu was 6-1 ATS as a dog this year. obviously they'll be pretty pumped up for their first bowl game since any of these players were born.

meineke car care bowl
north carolina (+2.5) 2 units. such a shame they couldn't come up with a more creative name for this game. anyway... i hope i don't regret playing this earlier, when the line was 3. shouldn't need the points though. this one is very simple... carolina is the better team. maybe by far. pitt's schedule was just weak. here's the teams they beat this year... youngstown st, buffalo, navy, louisville, uconn, rutgers, south florida, syracuse, and notre dame. impressive, isn't it? they played one acc team... and lost to nc st. yes, i know nc st beat nc, but that was a rivalry game. oh, and how much is the coaching worth in this game? butch davis against dave wannstedt? the 'stache is in trouble. IF carolna can get up for a game in their home state, their defense (tied for 6th in the country with alabama against the run, allowing 2.76 yards/carry) should dominate this game.

 

[Smitty]

adding another play on pitt/nc...

under (44.5)1 unit. assuming nc can stop the panthers' running game, pitt will struggle to score. and nc's offense never recovered from the loss of a couple wide receivers to the nfl. of course, it seemed like every time i played nc under this year, there were a couple defensive scores.

MERRY CHRISTMAS, MADJACKERS!!

 

[Smitty]

Music City Bowl

Music City Bowl

glad i got nc early enough. tough loss for the tarheels.

kentucky (+6.5) 2 units. i'll start by saying this - i think clemson is by far the better team. they are probably better than 1/3 of the top 25. i just don't see them being up for the music city bowl. a couple other factors i like here -

sec vs acc. remember clemson vs south carolina not too long ago?

one thing i always look at when handicapping bowl games is each team's ATS record away from home. i don't have the numbers in front of me, but i seem to recall kentucky is 6-0 ATS on the road.

i'll take rich brooks getting points from dabo sweeny.

 

[Smitty]

Independence Bowl

Independence Bowl

georia (-6.5) 1 unit. the sec let me down last night; going with them again. texas a&m (and the big 12 in general) is awful.

 

[Morris]

Smitty, have you ever been to Bellini"s. I think it on CP road. Gonna try it in the next few weeks. Like Geo. tonit too. GL!!

 

[Smitty]

morris, i had dinner at bellinis about 5 years ago. we thought it was ok, but certainly not worth what we paid. i was about to recommend the nearby wheatfields as an alternative, but then i remembered you're a lot closer to the original.

 

[Smitty]

Eagle Bank Bowl

Eagle Bank Bowl

temple (+4) 1 unit. gotta play the owls here. after being so awful for so long... what a great story. pierce is expected to play, but it's hard to say they missed him against ohio since they still rushed for 255 yards. obviously they will be more excited to be playing in this game than ucla will be. hopefully that's enough for them to be able to establish the run against a ucla team that was ranked 60th in the country stopping the run.

 

[Smitty]

Champs Sports Bowl

Champs Sports Bowl

wisconsin (+3.5) 2 units. another one of those plays that is very tough for me to make. obviously miami has the better athletes and should dominate this game. if wisconsin can't get clay going on the ground, their offense is mediocre. and miami's run defense has been solid this year, ranking 28th in the country. in fact, i can't find much at all to recommend the badgers. all that said, this is an anti-miami play. i don't see the hurricanes getting too excited to play against wisconsin in orlando.

 

[Smitty]

Humanitarian Bowl

Humanitarian Bowl

tough loss on the owls yesterday. they really outplayed the bruins.

isn't the 'humanitarian bowl' a nice change of pace from the 'meineke car care bowl' and the 'eagle bank' bowl'?

idaho (-1) 2 units. finally, a bowl game in which motivation shouldn't be an issue. i can't imagine either team went into the season dreaming of doing better than the humanitarian bowl. the biggest difference is how the teams are entering this game. after a great start, idaho lost 4 of its last 5 games, and all 5 ATS (after starting 7-0 ATS). bowling green won its last 4 games, and 6 of its last 7. however, i think the break will be good for the vandals. they should be ready for what has to be one of their first bowl games in quite a while. also, 3 of those 4 losses were to nevada, fresno, and boise. no shame in those.
i made the mistake of backing a mac team yesterday. that won't happen again. at least not until the international bowl. :scared i know i keep saying this, but it wasn't too long ago when the mac really deserved 5 bowl teams. and in those days, they got 2. now the mac is terrible, and 5 teams get in. ridiculous. but i digress...
here's a crazy stat i found... idaho's offense AVERAGES 9.5 yards/pass attempt. that is only topped by 2 teams who almost never throw the ball - georgia tech and navy. that is half a yard per attempt more than the next 3 teams - tcu, cincinnati, and arkansas. i think idaho will still establish the run though - they averaged a respectable 4.6 yds/rush and bg gave up a ridiculous 5.34 yds/rush. only 9 teams in the country were worse.

 

[rocky mountain]

tough loss on the owls yesterday. they really outplayed the bruins.

isn't the 'humanitarian bowl' a nice change of pace from the 'meineke car care bowl' and the 'eagle bank' bowl'?

idaho (-1) 2 units. finally, a bowl game in which motivation shouldn't be an issue. i can't imagine either team went into the season dreaming of doing better than the humanitarian bowl. the biggest difference is how the teams are entering this game. after a great start, idaho lost 4 of its last 5 games, and all 5 ATS (after starting 7-0 ATS). bowling green won its last 4 games, and 6 of its last 7. however, i think the break will be good for the vandals. they should be ready for what has to be one of their first bowl games in quite a while. also, 3 of those 4 losses were to nevada, fresno, and boise. no shame in those.
i made the mistake of backing a mac team yesterday. that won't happen again. at least not until the international bowl. :scared i know i keep saying this, but it wasn't too long ago when the mac really deserved 5 bowl teams. and in those days, they got 2. now the mac is terrible, and 5 teams get in. ridiculous. but i digress...
here's a crazy stat i found... idaho's offense AVERAGES 9.5 yards/pass attempt. that is only topped by 2 teams who almost never throw the ball - georgia tech and navy. that is half a yard per attempt more than the next 3 teams - tcu, cincinnati, and arkansas. i think idaho will still establish the run though - they averaged a respectable 4.6 yds/rush and bg gave up a ridiculous 5.34 yds/rush. only 9 teams in the country were worse.

Great statwork there Smitty, definetly tells me idaho will put a bunch of pts on the board. When you can pass as well as them and run well and face a team who cant stop the run, Bowl green's asses should be very exposed! Big gay capper would love this post...

 

[Smitty]

Holiday Bowl

Holiday Bowl

thanks, RM. not sure that i want BGC lurking around my thread.

i have a feeling i may regret both these plays...

arizona (+2.5) 1 unit. nebraska has the classic look of a team i'd love to play as a dog, and would look to bet against as a fav... great defense, no offense. against texas, they looked like a pop warner offense. i think everybody saw that game and thinks nebraska is better than they are. i looked at that game as proof that texas really isn't that good. remember, nebraska lost at home to iowa state. we're not talking about a great football team. that said, it's hard to trust arizona. if this was a bigger bowl game, i couldn't bet on one of the stoops brothers. the way they choked the game away against oregon told me that mike is similar to bob... good at building a program, and possibly a solid coach. but when the pressure is on... you don't want your money on them. that said, i don't see much pressure on the wildcats today. they are an underdog, and i don't think people expect much from them. they are the more complete team, and should get the win.

over (41) 1 unit. i just don't see nebraska's defense being as 'up' for this game as they were for texas. although i have no idea how their offense will put points on the board. wait, yes i do....

these two teams played each other in the holiday bowl exactly 11 years ago today. change a few names, but i think this game will play out exactly the same....

Arizona capitalized on early Nebraska turnovers for three field goals and a 9-0 lead. Nebraska's defense returned the favor, forcing a Wildcat turnover and a short punt that enabled the Cornhuskers to score a field goal. A 45-yard Eric Crouch to Shevin Wiggins touchdown pass gave Nebraska a 10-9 lead. An Arizona fumble on the ensuing kickoff gave Nebraska a field goal on the final play of the second quarter and extended the Cornhuskers' lead to 13-9.

Arizona mounted a drive late in the third quarter and scored on a 15-yard pass from Keith Smith to Brian Brennan on the first play of the fourth quarter to take a 16-13 lead. On Nebraska's first play from scrimmage, Wildcat defensive back Chris McAllister intercepted an Eric Crouch pass, but fumbled it back to the Cornhuskers at the 12-yard line. Given a second chance, Nebraska drove 88 yards in eight plays, including five Crouch pass completions, to retake the lead, 20-16.

The Wildcats were up to the challenge, driving 68 yards on their next possession. Smith scrambled for two key first downs, and Kelvin Eafon capped the drive with a 1-yard plunge to give Arizona a 23-20 lead with six minutes left.

McAllister, Arizona's All-American defensive back, blunted the last Nebraska opportunity with an interception in the game's final minute.

so there you have it. i'm calling this game 23-20 for arizona.

 

[Smitty]

Armed Forces Bowl

Armed Forces Bowl

sure enough, i was off on both ends of that game last night. arizona was pathetic. they were intimidated right from the opening kick. every day, i become more convinced that the stoops brothers can build a program, but can't coach worth a shit. that said, wait'll you see who i'm playing in the sun bowl.

air force (+5) 2 units. i did pretty well going against houston late in the year. they really are not that good. IF you can tackle, you can stop their offense. there are so many reasons i like air force today.

does houston even want to be here? early in the year, there was talk of houston being 'bcs busters'. now here they are in the armed forces bowl, playing the same team they beat last year. at least air force has a mild revenge motive.

air force is 3rd in the country in rushing offense, racking up 274 yards/game. houston's rush defense is 111th in the country, giving up 213 yards/game. that's even more impressive when you consider how often houston had the lead this year, and the opponents had to throw the ball to come from behind.

air force has the #1 pass defense in the country, allowing 149 yards/game. granted, they didn't play a lot of pass-happy teams, but that's still impressive.

a factor i always look at for bowl games is which team relied on their home field. houston was 5-0 ATS at home, 3-4 on the road (after starting 3-1). air force was 3-2 at home, 3-3 on the road. advantage, air force.

side note - doesn't the total seem a little low, like they WANT you to play the over? makes me lean towards the under.

 

[Smitty]

Sun Bowl

Sun Bowl

oklahoma (-10) 3 units. two things i hate about this play - 1) i'm betting on a stoops brother in a bowl game and 2) i really, really, really hope this line is not a crazy overreaction to luck's injury. it really can't be, because pritchard has experience in big games, winning at usc two years ago (back when usc didn't suck).

that said, this line is obviously insanely high. there is absolutely no way oklahoma should be favored by over a touchdown against stanford this year. AND THE LINE HAS GONE UP! so we have the whole world on the underdog... the line moving up... really only one thing to do. unload on the favorite.

 

[Smitty]

Texas Bowl

Texas Bowl

missouri (-6.5) 1 unit. this is more of an anti-navy play than a play on the tigers. navy really dropped a notch this year, which wasn't unexpected, the further they get from the paul johnson era. and they sure didn't finish strong. here's navy's last 5 games:

home loss to temple (sure, temple was much-improved this year, but a good team still shouldn't lose to them at home.
win at notre dame (c'mon, who DIDN'T beat nd this year?).
home win over delaware
loss at a bad hawaii team
close win over army

missouri is 12th in the country against the run, allowing 96 yards/game.

navy was 3-2 ATS at home, 3-4 away from home. missouri, on the other hand, was awful at home (0-5), but decent away from home (4-2).