Bowling for mediocrity

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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD: 42-52 (-11.95*)
NFL YTD: 28-22 (+4.80*)

I had been 37-36 (+1.20*) for NCAA YTD after Buffalo rallied against Bowling Green on 11/21/08, then the train wreck.


If I hadn't been busy with other stuff and this Bowl thread had been up and running when I meant to start it, I would currently be 1-1 with Navy(+3) and Arizona(-3)(-125).

I'll be trusting my ANGLES and INFORMATION on quite a few games I like in the Bowl season, and I expect I'll actually have as many 2* plays as 1* plays, which is a BIG change of pace.

I'll come back and add some comments and analysis to this first post before tomorrow's game gets underway.


Iowa(-3)(-120) over South Carolina (2*)
- - Iowa's only significant disadvantage is being deservedly tagged as the favorite.

http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/teams/report/SC/11159232


Florida(-3) over Oklahoma (2*)
- -


Notre Dame(+1') over Hawaii (1*)
- - (1) Over the course of the season, a pedestrian Hawaii team improved, and a pedestrian Notre Dame team regressed and disappointed. (2) It seems as odd as it is obvious that the REAL motivation lies with Notre Dame in this matchup. (3) The altar boys are capable of gagging at the any sign of adversity, but I don't see the value in betting on that happening here.


Only in a few instances do I make plays in any sport or event until shortly before gameday, because I rarely start or finish much capping before that time. But looking ahead:

2* Leans:

Georgia Tech(-4) over LSU

Boston College(-3') over Vanderbilt

California(-8) over Miami

Alabama(-10) over Utah

Northwestern(+12') over Missouri

Minnesota/Kansas(Ov57)

1* Leans:

Iowa/South Carolina(Ov43)

PennState(+9) over USC

Pittsburgh(+2') over Oregon State

East Carolina(-3) over Kentucky


GL
 
L

lostinamerica

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Bowl plays through 12/25/08: 1-1 (-0.10*)


California(-8) over Miami (1.5*)
- - I'll add a write-up later.

Edit for write-up: Starting with Cal, HC Tedford went into this season with the emphasis on improved chemistry: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/08/26/sports/s182305D41.DTL . (It's certainly been legitimate to question the chemistry and fundamentals of recent Cal teams, but no reason to question the presence of speed, talent and playmakers, then or now, in all three phases.) With lots of veterans to take leadership roles, IMO Tedford's team responded well over the course of the season. AT QB, there has been a real carousel between Riley and Longshore, and both have had moments to feed and justify their detractors, but the team has moved the ball and generally seized opportunities to score points . . . As for Miami, most news and vibes emanating from the program have not been positive, including about 5 player suspensions, talk of disgruntled veterans wanting to transfer because of the newer recruits getting most of the playing time (whether justified or not), and assistant coaches in a new regime looking to interview elsewhere; some of this stuff may or may not be be overblown. Ending the season on a low note in the thick of an ACC title chase, a young team now travels across the country for a Bowl game in the opponent's back yard with a freshman QB at the helm . . . So, sometimes a little dissension or a pervasive disappointment generates a superb Bowl effort, and in other instances it's less than ideal preparation for the flow/swings/intensity of a quality Bowl matchup. For me, nothing about the set up for this one suggests that young HC Randy Shannon has his team right where he wants them, coalescing to take on the world, and poised to fight back beautifully and overcome any intangibles in favor of Cal, in addition to Cal's statistical edges . . . My brother-in-law who lives in the Berkeley area would likely tell me I should have my head examined if I stepped up with a 2 unit wager behind either CAl QB, so I'm settling on 1.5*, but I think the QB play will keep pace with the rest of the Cal team in a showcase spot . . . The line is now at -10, up from -6', but I still like Cal.


My bad; I had Notre Dame(-1').


WTF: Let's see how i do on leans: CMich/FAU(Un68) and CMich(-7).






GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Added my write-up on Cal vs. Miami.

Rather than just bump the thread, for the short term I'll slip in my NFL plays to date, until I finalize something more in the Bowls.

Leans are 1-1. Will add leans on: Wisconsin(+5') and West Virginia(-2).


lostinamerica said:
Miami(+3)(-125) over New York Jets (1.5*)

TEASE Miami(+9) over New York Jets w/ San Diego(-3) over Denver (1*)

- - Just off the top of my head, this year I'm about 1-3 on NCAA plays posted before Tuesday, and about 3-0 on NFL plays posted before Tuesday.
Click to expand...

Green Bay(-10') over Detroit (1 Biscuit)
- -


GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Bowl plays through 12/28/08: 1-2 (-1.75*)


Northwestern(+12') over Missouri (1*)
- - Northwestern has been gritty on defense all year, and at it's best was extremely efficient on offense against an excellent Iowa defense. This well coached team's main goal from Day 1 has been to win the school's first Bowl game in nearly 60 years, and there's no doubt they want nothing more than to do it as a huge dog against a high profile opponent . . . The distance traveled by Missouri between their snub into last year's Cotton Bowl, and fading down the stretch this season with some subpar play to arrive at this here trip to San Antonio, is not a handsome formula for turning on the switch and regaining some lost respect as this senior rich team is talking about doing. . . I don't look for Missouri to bring a dominant and polished offensive performance and superior defensive performance that outclasses and puts away a confident Northwestern squad.


GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Bowl plays through 12/29/08: 2-2 (-0.75*)


Oregon(+3)(-120) over Oklahoma State (1.5*)
- - Odds and Ends: (1) Oregon has been peaking down the stretch under QB Masoli. ( http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/teams/report/OR/11190186 ) (2) It is extremely difficult to face Oregon's spread attack, and with the loss of (maligned) defensive coordinator Tim Beckman ( http://newsok.com/osu-coaches-hold-group-effort/article/3330167 ), Oklahoma State has been improvising in their preparations, and will be improvising on the fly during during tonight's game. (3) For added measure, San Diego is the home for family and friends of Todd Doxey, a redshirt freshman with the Ducks who drowned at the start of the season http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stor...notes215132-oregon-players-have-doxey-their-/ . . . A live dog here.


Oregon/Oklahoma State(Ov76) (1.5*)
- - The two "point guards" orchestrating the ball distribution in this game will be dictating a frantic tempo, with weapons and tempo on special teams almost sure to get in on the act. http://oregon.scout.com/2/825478.html


GL
 
L

lostinamerica

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Bowl games through 12/30/08: 3-3 (-0.90*)


It is what it almost always is: Bowling for mediocrity.

I'm really liking the plays I'm making in the games I'm playing (which would be 4-4 if I had started on time with Navy(L) and Arizona(W)), but there isn't the success there to justify going 2* per play.


Pittsburgh(+2) over Oregon State (1.5*)
- - By my count, Pitt at 9-3 has played a schedule in which only two opponents had a losing record. After a shocking loss in their opener, this Pitt team has "shown its worth in ways I wouldn't have expected" (those words were not chosen to suggest I was caught wagering against their solid success) . . . On the other side, Oregon State with a depleted roster looks to overcome the residual disappointment of an epic failure . . . This is a chance for the Pitt seniors and entire team to put their stamp on a real or temporary return to football prominence, and they will have sufficient chances to do that in this game, if need be even f/b/o or in spite of HC Dave Wannstedt. A live dog here.


Georgia Tech(-4) over LSU (1.5*)
- - LSU played in - and won - the national championship game the year before; the stakes are now trivial by comparison. Their opponent is a fresh and proven team on the rise that has known only recent Bowl frustrations, playing in their backyard under an exceptional new coach, which is, like, hard to miss or ignore . . . Certain to be a popular play - deservedly so.


Minnesota/Kansas(Ov59) (1.5*)
- - Absolutely no surprise that recapturing the incredible magic of the 2007 season proved very elusive for Kansas in 2008. But with outstanding QB Todd Reesing at the helm, the Jayhawks know how to play to their strenghts. The real problem is evident in numbers that I believe show the Jayhawks are allowing over 39 ppg on the road this year, including a very generous pass defense that allows a full 2 out of 3 completion rate . . . Minnesota is young and thin (and rely heavily on their mobile QB behind a suspect OL), and one month ago the Gophers were fairly worn down when trying and failing to close out the season against their three biggest rivals - Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. I expect and sense a freshness and a bounce in their effort in this showcase spot( http://www.startribune.com/sports/g...i8cyaiUo8cyaiUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiU ).
Finally, every "hot trend" (i.e., better than 80%) at one website points only to the high scoring contest I have the game capped as, regardless of any such trends:
Over is 10-1-1 in Golden Gophers last 12 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 8-1 in Golden Gophers last 9 non-conference games.
Over is 5-1 in Golden Gophers last 6 games as an underdog.
Over is 13-3 in Golden Gophers last 16 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-0 in Jayhawks last 4 games on grass.
Over is 4-0 in Jayhawks last 4 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-1 in Jayhawks last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Jayhawks last 6 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Jayhawks last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 4-1 in Jayhawks last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 4-1 in Jayhawks last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.


Boston College(-3)(-125) over Vanderbilt (1*)
- - This really comes down to the young backup at QB for Boston College that was not up to the task in their last big game, and making amends (or strides) a month later against an even tougher pass defense (but a far less dangerous opponent on offense and special teams, but a conference with a huge reputation). While Vanderbilt is a Cinderella story getting a chance to come up huge in their own backyard, Vandy has proven even before the end of the season that they still have a way to go . . . I see value in letting Boston College carry my cash in this one.
http://www.boston.com/sports/colleg...nashville_bc_aims_to_tune_out_disappointment/


GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,539
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Bowl games through 12/31/08: 4-6 (-3.95*)



Iowa(-3)(-125) over South Carolina (1.5*)

USC(-9) over Penn State (1.5*)

Georgia(-8) over Michigan State (1*)

Clemson(-1')(-105) over Nebraska (1*)



The Granddaddy of Them All:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-plaschke1-2009jan01,0,4297679.column

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-rosecharticle1-2009jan01,0,5834.story

44300712.jpg




GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,539
263
83
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA Bowls through 1/4/08: 9-9 (-1.75*)
NCAA YTD: 42-52 (-11.95*)
Playoffs: 4-0 (+5.75*)
NFL Regular Season: 32-25 (+5.80*)


Ohio State(+8) over Texas (1*)
- - With the public loving Texas and the line moving the other way, at least I've got one decent ANGLE supporting my play . . . You usually remember your last game the longest, and I believe there are about 28 seniors on this veteran Ohio State team that have one last chance to avoid being remembered for their crushing Bowl defeats . . . I'll concede Texas has been the better team all year, but I don't see a mismatch in this spot . . . Scarily, so far I'm 5-0 on my Bowl plays involving Big Ten Teams (with Iowa and Northwestern, against Penn State and Michigan State, over with Minnesota, and no play with Wisconsin).


GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,539
263
83
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA Bowls through 1/5/08: 10-9 (-0.75*)

Tulsa(-3) over Ball State (1*)
- - With an unranked favorite against a ranked dog, at least I've got one decent ANGLE supporting my play . . . I believe Tulsa's lowest production on offense all season was 399 yards in their turnover filled last outing against a really solid East Carolina squad. 475+ yards by a Bowl proven squad against a soft MAC defense looks like a winner to me.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,539
263
83
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA Bowls through 1/6/08: 11-9 (+0.25*)

"Bowling for mediocrity" = "Yes, We Can!"


lostinamerica said:
Florida(-3) over Oklahoma (2*)
- -
Click to expand...

Florida(-3) over Oklahoma (2*)
- - Will Bob Stoops outcoach Urban Meyer in this showcase spot without a better team under his saddle? IMO, Stoops does not have the better team, and for my money, no he won't.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/sportsline/main11226794.shtml

I didn't need to see a single Bowl game in order to confidently believe Oklahoma has not faced an opponent all year with an offense AND a defense and the special teams, ready to challenge everything the Sooners expect to do, with the verve and ability Florida will bring to bear; I'm not feeling any less confident now that the Bowl season has played itself out.

I'll add a few final thoughts before Thursday.


GL
 
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