BOWL's Handicapping Question

[WildBillPicks7]

Years ago before all these coaches decided to bolt to go to another program after leading their team to a bowl game, there were some solid trends to play and handicapping stats to help predict Bowl Outcomes.

Have any of you experienced a friggin headache in trying to cap games since the NCAA and these new age AD's decided that the outgoing HC couldn't coach their team in a bowl game in the last 2 years using your system plays and trends from the past?

I used to kill it back in the late 80's to around 2001 on Bowls against the spread, but the last 2 years I have been lucky to break even or gave back my earnings over the other sports I gained $ at, (MLB, pre-NFL, NFL), but for some reason the expansion of all the extra bowls and new coaches running teams during their bowl preparation w/o their ol' HC I can't find a happy medium.

Anything you use that helped you overcome the new obstacles many of us (ME) have gone through, that information would be helpful.

FWIW, I like a few games only because of how trends have followed these Bowl Games in traditional Bowl Games' past - SUN BOWL usually a dog cover bowl, Big 10 usually do well as Dogs when matched up w/SEC teams giving more than 6 1/2 pts (Gator/Citrus) and totals going OVER, typically in the FIESTA, VEGAS and HUMANITARIAN in BOISE, I think now it's the Idaho Spuds Bowl.

On paper I like GaTech getting 10 vs USC.

Feedback please!! ....................

 

[IE]

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Navy -7.5 10 6-4 3-7 24 26 275 110 31-20-9 168 235 31-17-12 -2 -.4 16.0
Army 10 2-8 3-7 28 38 380 69 35-27-7 235 206 52-31-19 -3 -4.8 14.5
Nevada -7.5 11 6-5 3-8 36 32 246 243 54-32-20 212 206 46-21-22 -3 -.6 14.4
Arizona 11 6-5 5-6 36 37 222 285 50-25-23 201 315 54-30-22 -2 -.4 5.0
Toledo 11 8-3 7-4 32 27 205 256 43-19-16 176 290 37-13-23 8 2.9 16.0
Utah St. -7.5 11 9-2 9-2 34 17 185 265 49-22-25 116 217 20-6-12 0 7.1 17.9
BYU -2.5 11 6-5 6-4 28 15 156 242 41-17-23 81 186 20-3-12 -5 3.7 12.7
San Diego St. 11 8-3 8-3 34 23 223 173 50-28-17 149 217 35-14-19 2 4.2 14.6
Ball St. 12 9-3 9-3 35 32 214 257 51-23-28 207 254 47-23-23 -2 1.2 15.0
UCF -7 13 9-4 6-7 35 22 179 222 62-31-25 162 218 38-21-14 13 5.6 16.3
East Carolina 11 7-4 5-6 31 32 134 276 43-20-21 148 269 46-16-27 -4 -.3 15.3
La.-Lafayette -4.5 11 7-4 6-4 34 30 191 261 49-27-19 154 296 38-18-19 -3 1.8 16.4
Washington 11 6-5 6-5 21 25 131 209 31-15-15 171 190 33-16-13 6 -1.4 5.2
Boise St. -7.5 12 10-2 6-6 30 15 173 217 47-25-17 141 163 24-18-3 17 7.6 17.5
SMU 11 5-6 6-5 27 29 134 236 37-18-14 134 262 42-14-26 5 -.0 15.9
Fresno St. -11.5 11 8-3 10-1 41 23 162 325 60-16-35 182 159 34-18-13 16 2.6 13.5
Cent. Michigan 11 5-6 5-6 28 34 135 249 39-18-19 197 256 48-24-21 5 -.1 17.6
Western Ky. -6 11 6-5 7-4 27 27 181 192 38-17-19 138 224 37-14-21 -2 -.5 14.1
Bowling Green 11 7-4 7-4 21 16 153 206 30-14-13 119 182 21-12-9 4 1.1 17.0
San Jose St. -7.5 11 9-2 9-2 34 22 116 331 48-12-31 130 231 31-13-17 6 3.2 17.5
Cincinnati -11 10 7-3 8-2 30 18 193 230 37-19-17 141 251 20-8-10 8 7.4 9.8
Duke 11 5-6 5-6 29 37 118 277 39-16-21 210 264 52-23-25 3 -.6 7.0
Baylor -1 11 6-5 8-3 44 40 225 357 63-30-29 197 327 60-27-32 3 -.1 3.5
UCLA 13 9-4 8-5 35 26 203 272 59-29-26 155 255 43-15-25 4 2.3 8.0
Ohio 11 7-4 3-8 29 27 204 237 38-19-17 170 239 38-11-24 4 .1 20.8
La.-Monroe -6 12 8-4 8-4 36 28 146 297 59-24-31 136 272 44-17-27 8 2.2 17.1
Rutgers 11 8-3 7-4 22 16 120 223 31-5-21 108 229 19-6-12 9 6.1 11.0
Virginia Tech -1 11 5-6 3-8 25 25 155 234 31-14-15 138 218 33-12-17 -5 -1.8 6.4
Minnesota 11 5-6 4-7 19 25 138 171 25-9-14 184 180 35-20-13 -4 -1.7 10.2
Texas Tech -13 11 6-5 5-6 37 34 136 366 53-12-39 186 207 47-17-24 -10 -2.0 7.2
Air Force 11 5-6 3-8 27 29 315 104 40-30-9 210 189 41-19-18 -14 -2.1 16.5
Rice -1 12 6-6 7-4 32 31 201 220 46-25-16 193 251 51-27-21 5 .9 19.8
Navy 10 6-4 3-7 24 26 275 110 31-20-9 168 235 31-17-12 -2 -.4 16.0
Arizona St. NL 11 6-5 6-4 34 26 180 259 47-15-28 180 182 36-16-20 4 1.2 6.3
West Virginia -3.5 11 6-5 5-6 42 40 183 331 61-20-37 138 347 59-20-36 5 -.4 5.5
Syracuse 11 6-5 6-5 29 26 169 297 41-19-20 142 250 35-12-20 -3 -1.0 6.2
Oregon St. -1 11 8-3 8-3 29 21 117 304 40-17-22 138 228 30-17-12 6 2.7 4.1
Texas 12 8-4 5-7 36 29 179 262 58-31-23 199 214 43-25-16 3 1.8 7.3
TCU -1 11 6-5 4-7 27 25 149 236 34-10-22 109 246 33-10-21 5 -.2 3.6
Michigan St. 12 6-6 4-8 20 16 152 219 25-12-13 100 174 19-5-10 0 -1.6 9.5
No. Carolina St. 11 6-5 4-7 26 26 102 310 37-6-29 154 283 34-15-18 -4 1.4 9.4
Vanderbilt -5 11 7-4 7-4 27 20 150 224 35-17-14 160 183 24-16-6 -7 3.2 9.6
Georgia Tech 12 5-7 7-5 33 32 300 125 52-41-8 148 251 50-27-22 4 -.7 5.8
Southern Cal NL 12 7-5 3-9 34 25 155 297 55-12-38 156 240 36-16-18 -2 2.9 6.0
Iowa St. 11 5-6 6-5 24 25 144 216 34-8-24 171 298 33-15-18 5 3.7 3.5
Tulsa -3 12 9-3 7-5 32 25 233 220 52-30-18 113 240 40-19-17 -1 .3 15.0
Clemson 11 9-2 8-3 42 27 201 320 60-22-36 166 251 35-14-21 2 3.4 7.3
LSU -3 11 9-2 5-6 30 16 182 204 38-24-9 94 203 23-11-12 16 5.0 5.0
Purdue 11 5-6 5-6 28 31 164 229 41-14-24 186 240 43-22-16 4 -.2 11.1
Oklahoma St. -18 11 6-5 6-5 41 32 199 338 54-25-26 148 304 44-19-18 -5 1.0 3.8
Northwestern 11 8-3 10-1 31 24 227 170 41-23-14 130 268 32-15-16 12 3.6 10.0
Miss. St. -2 11 7-4 5-6 28 24 136 253 39-15-23 171 230 32-13-16 13 3.0 7.6
Michigan 12 8-4 5-7 30 19 187 198 45-26-17 156 155 23-9-12 -8 3.7 8.1
So. Carolina -4.5 11 9-2 8-3 32 18 140 239 46-18-24 106 204 23-8-15 2 5.1 5.3
Nebraska 12 9-3 6-6 32 28 244 210 47-27-19 209 146 42-25-12 -11 -1.5 7.4
Georgia -8.5 12 10-2 7-5 37 19 190 267 60-30-27 168 186 28-14-11 9 6.0 7.7
Wisconsin 12 7-5 6-6 31 19 244 158 50-36-12 131 191 28-12-15 4 4.1 7.8
Stanford -6.5 13 11-2 7-6 28 17 173 203 47-21-19 88 251 26-14-12 8 6.2 4.8
Northern Ill. 12 11-1 8-3 41 20 253 237 65-40-24 145 212 29-18-9 7 6.0 19.0
Florida St. -13 11 9-2 3-8 36 18 199 259 47-26-18 104 179 22-10-12 -8 3.4 7.0
Louisville 11 9-2 5-6 31 25 127 294 43-20-23 156 198 36-14-19 4 .2 11.0
Florida -14.5 11 10-1 7-4 27 14 194 142 34-20-12 101 185 17-11-5 16 7.9 3.5
Kansas St. 11 10-1 8-3 40 22 187 216 56-38-13 121 249 30-12-16 20 6.6 4.7
Oregon -7.5 11 10-1 7-4 50 23 323 218 76-42-29 149 251 31-14-16 20 6.7 8.4
Texas A&M -3 10 8-2 6-4 42 23 240 325 55-34-19 147 260 29-14-14 -3 4.4 3.7
Oklahoma 11 9-2 5-6 38 25 148 343 53-22-27 192 200 34-23-8 -3 2.5 5.5
Pittsburgh 10 5-5 7-3 26 20 129 252 30-14-15 131 209 23-11-9 12 2.6 7.9
Mississippi -1.5 11 5-6 8-3 29 29 164 250 39-19-18 137 251 38-15-18 -2 -.6 4.6
Arkansas St. 11 8-3 7-4 35 28 203 265 48-26-21 158 251 38-14-21 7 1.3 14.9
Kent St. -1 12 10-2 9-2 34 25 239 163 52-32-13 148 279 37-12-25 15 5.0 15.6
Alabama -9 12 11-1 6-6 38 12 218 219 58-30-26 81 172 18-9-7 13 10.2 5.8
Notre Dame 12 12-0 7-5 27 10 203 219 36-22-13 92 194 10-2-7 9 12.0 5.6

underdogs who have better

YPT DIFF-Yards Per Point
Differential. (difference between
offensive yards per point scored and
defensive yards per point allowed).

and

have played higher power rating teams

might be worth a look at.

last 2 columns to the far right.

i highlighted such teams in bold.

use in combination with other factors, motivation,injuries etc. etc.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Navy -7.5 10 6-4 3-7 24 26 275 110 31-20-9 168 235 31-17-12 -2 -.4 16.0
Army 10 2-8 3-7 28 38 380 69 35-27-7 235 206 52-31-19 -3 -4.8 14.5
Nevada -7.5 11 6-5 3-8 36 32 246 243 54-32-20 212 206 46-21-22 -3 -.6 14.4
Arizona 11 6-5 5-6 36 37 222 285 50-25-23 201 315 54-30-22 -2 -.4 5.0
Toledo 11 8-3 7-4 32 27 205 256 43-19-16 176 290 37-13-23 8 2.9 16.0
Utah St. -7.5 11 9-2 9-2 34 17 185 265 49-22-25 116 217 20-6-12 0 7.1 17.9
BYU -2.5 11 6-5 6-4 28 15 156 242 41-17-23 81 186 20-3-12 -5 3.7 12.7
San Diego St. 11 8-3 8-3 34 23 223 173 50-28-17 149 217 35-14-19 2 4.2 14.6
Ball St. 12 9-3 9-3 35 32 214 257 51-23-28 207 254 47-23-23 -2 1.2 15.0
UCF -7 13 9-4 6-7 35 22 179 222 62-31-25 162 218 38-21-14 13 5.6 16.3
East Carolina 11 7-4 5-6 31 32 134 276 43-20-21 148 269 46-16-27 -4 -.3 15.3
La.-Lafayette -4.5 11 7-4 6-4 34 30 191 261 49-27-19 154 296 38-18-19 -3 1.8 16.4
Washington 11 6-5 6-5 21 25 131 209 31-15-15 171 190 33-16-13 6 -1.4 5.2
Boise St. -7.5 12 10-2 6-6 30 15 173 217 47-25-17 141 163 24-18-3 17 7.6 17.5
SMU 11 5-6 6-5 27 29 134 236 37-18-14 134 262 42-14-26 5 -.0 15.9
Fresno St. -11.5 11 8-3 10-1 41 23 162 325 60-16-35 182 159 34-18-13 16 2.6 13.5
Cent. Michigan 11 5-6 5-6 28 34 135 249 39-18-19 197 256 48-24-21 5 -.1 17.6
Western Ky. -6 11 6-5 7-4 27 27 181 192 38-17-19 138 224 37-14-21 -2 -.5 14.1
Bowling Green 11 7-4 7-4 21 16 153 206 30-14-13 119 182 21-12-9 4 1.1 17.0
San Jose St. -7.5 11 9-2 9-2 34 22 116 331 48-12-31 130 231 31-13-17 6 3.2 17.5
Cincinnati -11 10 7-3 8-2 30 18 193 230 37-19-17 141 251 20-8-10 8 7.4 9.8
Duke 11 5-6 5-6 29 37 118 277 39-16-21 210 264 52-23-25 3 -.6 7.0
Baylor -1 11 6-5 8-3 44 40 225 357 63-30-29 197 327 60-27-32 3 -.1 3.5
UCLA 13 9-4 8-5 35 26 203 272 59-29-26 155 255 43-15-25 4 2.3 8.0
Ohio 11 7-4 3-8 29 27 204 237 38-19-17 170 239 38-11-24 4 .1 20.8
La.-Monroe -6 12 8-4 8-4 36 28 146 297 59-24-31 136 272 44-17-27 8 2.2 17.1
Rutgers 11 8-3 7-4 22 16 120 223 31-5-21 108 229 19-6-12 9 6.1 11.0
Virginia Tech -1 11 5-6 3-8 25 25 155 234 31-14-15 138 218 33-12-17 -5 -1.8 6.4
Minnesota 11 5-6 4-7 19 25 138 171 25-9-14 184 180 35-20-13 -4 -1.7 10.2
Texas Tech -13 11 6-5 5-6 37 34 136 366 53-12-39 186 207 47-17-24 -10 -2.0 7.2
Air Force 11 5-6 3-8 27 29 315 104 40-30-9 210 189 41-19-18 -14 -2.1 16.5
Rice -1 12 6-6 7-4 32 31 201 220 46-25-16 193 251 51-27-21 5 .9 19.8
Navy 10 6-4 3-7 24 26 275 110 31-20-9 168 235 31-17-12 -2 -.4 16.0
Arizona St. NL 11 6-5 6-4 34 26 180 259 47-15-28 180 182 36-16-20 4 1.2 6.3
West Virginia -3.5 11 6-5 5-6 42 40 183 331 61-20-37 138 347 59-20-36 5 -.4 5.5
Syracuse 11 6-5 6-5 29 26 169 297 41-19-20 142 250 35-12-20 -3 -1.0 6.2
Oregon St. -1 11 8-3 8-3 29 21 117 304 40-17-22 138 228 30-17-12 6 2.7 4.1
Texas 12 8-4 5-7 36 29 179 262 58-31-23 199 214 43-25-16 3 1.8 7.3
TCU -1 11 6-5 4-7 27 25 149 236 34-10-22 109 246 33-10-21 5 -.2 3.6
Michigan St. 12 6-6 4-8 20 16 152 219 25-12-13 100 174 19-5-10 0 -1.6 9.5
No. Carolina St. 11 6-5 4-7 26 26 102 310 37-6-29 154 283 34-15-18 -4 1.4 9.4
Vanderbilt -5 11 7-4 7-4 27 20 150 224 35-17-14 160 183 24-16-6 -7 3.2 9.6
Georgia Tech 12 5-7 7-5 33 32 300 125 52-41-8 148 251 50-27-22 4 -.7 5.8
Southern Cal NL 12 7-5 3-9 34 25 155 297 55-12-38 156 240 36-16-18 -2 2.9 6.0
Iowa St. 11 5-6 6-5 24 25 144 216 34-8-24 171 298 33-15-18 5 3.7 3.5
Tulsa -3 12 9-3 7-5 32 25 233 220 52-30-18 113 240 40-19-17 -1 .3 15.0
Clemson 11 9-2 8-3 42 27 201 320 60-22-36 166 251 35-14-21 2 3.4 7.3
LSU -3 11 9-2 5-6 30 16 182 204 38-24-9 94 203 23-11-12 16 5.0 5.0
Purdue 11 5-6 5-6 28 31 164 229 41-14-24 186 240 43-22-16 4 -.2 11.1
Oklahoma St. -18 11 6-5 6-5 41 32 199 338 54-25-26 148 304 44-19-18 -5 1.0 3.8
Northwestern 11 8-3 10-1 31 24 227 170 41-23-14 130 268 32-15-16 12 3.6 10.0
Miss. St. -2 11 7-4 5-6 28 24 136 253 39-15-23 171 230 32-13-16 13 3.0 7.6
Michigan 12 8-4 5-7 30 19 187 198 45-26-17 156 155 23-9-12 -8 3.7 8.1
So. Carolina -4.5 11 9-2 8-3 32 18 140 239 46-18-24 106 204 23-8-15 2 5.1 5.3
Nebraska 12 9-3 6-6 32 28 244 210 47-27-19 209 146 42-25-12 -11 -1.5 7.4
Georgia -8.5 12 10-2 7-5 37 19 190 267 60-30-27 168 186 28-14-11 9 6.0 7.7
Wisconsin 12 7-5 6-6 31 19 244 158 50-36-12 131 191 28-12-15 4 4.1 7.8
Stanford -6.5 13 11-2 7-6 28 17 173 203 47-21-19 88 251 26-14-12 8 6.2 4.8
Northern Ill. 12 11-1 8-3 41 20 253 237 65-40-24 145 212 29-18-9 7 6.0 19.0
Florida St. -13 11 9-2 3-8 36 18 199 259 47-26-18 104 179 22-10-12 -8 3.4 7.0
Louisville 11 9-2 5-6 31 25 127 294 43-20-23 156 198 36-14-19 4 .2 11.0
Florida -14.5 11 10-1 7-4 27 14 194 142 34-20-12 101 185 17-11-5 16 7.9 3.5
Kansas St. 11 10-1 8-3 40 22 187 216 56-38-13 121 249 30-12-16 20 6.6 4.7
Oregon -7.5 11 10-1 7-4 50 23 323 218 76-42-29 149 251 31-14-16 20 6.7 8.4
Texas A&M -3 10 8-2 6-4 42 23 240 325 55-34-19 147 260 29-14-14 -3 4.4 3.7
Oklahoma 11 9-2 5-6 38 25 148 343 53-22-27 192 200 34-23-8 -3 2.5 5.5
Pittsburgh 10 5-5 7-3 26 20 129 252 30-14-15 131 209 23-11-9 12 2.6 7.9
Mississippi -1.5 11 5-6 8-3 29 29 164 250 39-19-18 137 251 38-15-18 -2 -.6 4.6
Arkansas St. 11 8-3 7-4 35 28 203 265 48-26-21 158 251 38-14-21 7 1.3 14.9
Kent St. -1 12 10-2 9-2 34 25 239 163 52-32-13 148 279 37-12-25 15 5.0 15.6
Alabama -9 12 11-1 6-6 38 12 218 219 58-30-26 81 172 18-9-7 13 10.2 5.8
Notre Dame 12 12-0 7-5 27 10 203 219 36-22-13 92 194 10-2-7 9 12.0 5.6

underdogs who have better

YPT DIFF-Yards Per Point
Differential. (difference between
offensive yards per point scored and
defensive yards per point allowed).

and

have played higher power rating teams

might be worth a look at.

last 2 columns to the far right.

i highlighted such teams in bold.

use in combination with other factors, motivation,injuries etc. etc.

Nice stuff, IE, I used to get that info from GS when Bruce Marshall first started with them, then got away from that info and went with trends. The teams you put in bold I have some leans towards, except CM, they aren't as good as they have been in the past, even though they are playing almost at home in Detroit at Ford Center.

I think N"western wins their bowl SU, VTech will expose Rutgers' defense with Thomas trying to make amends for a lackluster year after Heisman hopeful talk in "Pre".

I really think strength of schedule, yrds per rush for and against, turnovers for/against and passing yrds per catch and score really help too.

I appreciate the help and information!! :toast:

 

[TLankford]

malzahn is coaching ASU in their bowl game. just an fyi for your 1st comment in the OP

 

[WildBillPicks7]

malzahn is coaching ASU in their bowl game. just an fyi for your 1st comment in the OP

Thanks TL!

I kinda like Kent in that one, with or w/o Gus the BUS. The RB's for the Flashes are very very very good, ASU only has their QB and the WR who I can never remember his friggin name, MAC for me and no disrespect to the 'south' is stronger than the Sun Belt. If the QB for Kent doesn't choke like he did on the last ditch pass in dbl OT vs NIll, Kent should win straight up.

Go War Eagles!!

 

[TLankford]

Well Bill. Story has changed to "We told Gus he could coach the bowl game if he wanted, but he has declined and will not coach the ASU-KSU game"

hard to keep up with who is all saying what