so far, so good. am 2-0 +5* in my bowl plays.
tonight i will play:
2.5*kansas +13(130)
in looking at kansas, you have to separate how they played with whitmore & how they played without him. whitmore was hurt in game 8 loss to kansas st. & he missed the next 3 games after that. ku was 0-4 in those 4 games. in games that whitmore started & finished ku was 6-2 ( lost to n.w. by 8 points & an ot loss to colorado). ku averages 6.6 yds. per play with whitmore at qb this year, vs. teams that allowed an average of 6 yppl on defense. ncst. defense gives up 5.7 yppl to teams that average 5.6 yppl on offense. on the road ncst. yields 36 ppg. based on these numbers, ku should score close to that number.
ncst. offense average 6.4 yppl on offense vs. teams that allow an average of 5.3 yppl on defense. ku's defense allows an average of 5.7 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense. on the road ku's defense allow an average of 43 ppg. but i think that ku's defensive lapses happened when team morale was down because they thought whitmore was lost for the season. when whitmore was playing, ku's defense yielded an average of 5.2 yppl to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense. nc. st averaged 34 points per game & i see them scoring about 38-40 points tonite.
a few trends supporting this play:
bowl teams are 8-18 ats if they lost their final 2 games of the regular season.
bowl favorites are 4-12 ats if both teams have 5 or more losses during the regular season.
double digit bowl dogs who were favorite by 8 or more points in their last game are 10-3-2 ats.
ncst. is 0-4 ats in bowl games against opponents off a double digit win & 1-5 ats when favored off a su/ats loss with amato.
kansas is 49-13 ats when they score 28 or more points.
double digit dogs who outrush their opponents are 54-15 ats this year.
good luck