bowls

AR182

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4*under 49 n. tex./memphis--played this when the lines first came out. during the year memphis defense allowed an average of 19 points per game. but once they became comfortable in dunn's defensive schemes they allowed an average of 15 points per game in their last 5 games. overall memphis defense was ranked #11(#20 in scoring def.& #18 in rushing def.) in total defense. while n. texas defense is not as strong as previous years, they still ranked #23 in total defense. when memphis played similar defenses to n. tex.( s. miss., cincinnati & so. fla.) they averaged 14 points per game. according to memphis coach, the loss of deangelo williams 1400+ rushing yards means 14-21 points per game. while i won't go that far i do see both teams having some difficulty moving the ball.

good luck
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
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the under

the under

certainly looks good considering the defenses,injuries,and limited nature of n.texas` passing game.....

nice observation.....g.l.
 

AR182

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thanks for well wishes guys.


1*miami-oh-13(120)--defense wins games & miami's defense is an attacking defense & ranks 24th nationwide. over their last three games;miami held their opponents to just 83 yards on the ground with one of those opponents being bowling green. prior to the bg game, bg had the eighth-ranked rushing offense in the nation at better than 200 yards per game on average. on the other hand louisville's defense ranks about 90th nationwide.their defense has only 3 takeaways in the last 5 games & did not have an interception in 152 pass attempts in that span.
i'm only making this a 1*play because i'm not crazy about laying double digits in a bowl game.


good luck
 

pirate fan

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I threw out the rushing info due to the fact teams were always trying to play catch-up. Miami is so explosive, louisville's only chance will be ball control and mistakes kept to a minimum. Louisville can run but if they fall behind early, may have to go to the air more. Best of luck!:)
 

gardenweasel

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i was

i was

going to ply all dogs...but,louisville`s defense vs decent offenses has been offensive.....i decided to reluctantly buy the 13 down to 12.5 yesterday for a substantial wager after i heard the flu info.....pretty much feeling assured it would hit 14....i understand there are 14.5`s out there.....

i`ll middle a good portion and leave a little leftover on miami........


the anti-consensus players will have to have some serious sac to bet under 70......miami could hit 45 or 50 easily here...imo....

g.l.
 
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gardenweasel

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good job,ar1

good job,ar1

and fellow miami backers......should have taken a shot at the over,but,i`m not complaining....

many more to come in the next few weeks....g.l.....
 

AR182

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so far, so good. am 2-0 +5* in my bowl plays.

tonight i will play:

2.5*kansas +13(130)

in looking at kansas, you have to separate how they played with whitmore & how they played without him. whitmore was hurt in game 8 loss to kansas st. & he missed the next 3 games after that. ku was 0-4 in those 4 games. in games that whitmore started & finished ku was 6-2 ( lost to n.w. by 8 points & an ot loss to colorado). ku averages 6.6 yds. per play with whitmore at qb this year, vs. teams that allowed an average of 6 yppl on defense. ncst. defense gives up 5.7 yppl to teams that average 5.6 yppl on offense. on the road ncst. yields 36 ppg. based on these numbers, ku should score close to that number.

ncst. offense average 6.4 yppl on offense vs. teams that allow an average of 5.3 yppl on defense. ku's defense allows an average of 5.7 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense. on the road ku's defense allow an average of 43 ppg. but i think that ku's defensive lapses happened when team morale was down because they thought whitmore was lost for the season. when whitmore was playing, ku's defense yielded an average of 5.2 yppl to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense. nc. st averaged 34 points per game & i see them scoring about 38-40 points tonite.

a few trends supporting this play:

bowl teams are 8-18 ats if they lost their final 2 games of the regular season.

bowl favorites are 4-12 ats if both teams have 5 or more losses during the regular season.

double digit bowl dogs who were favorite by 8 or more points in their last game are 10-3-2 ats.

ncst. is 0-4 ats in bowl games against opponents off a double digit win & 1-5 ats when favored off a su/ats loss with amato.

kansas is 49-13 ats when they score 28 or more points.

double digit dogs who outrush their opponents are 54-15 ats this year.


good luck
 
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gardenweasel

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touched

touched

the over 63 early on....and will take the points myself.........the over`s really taken off..and evertbody`s on it......i am a sucker for middles.....

btw...sorry for dogging your threads....i`ve been all over the place the last few weeks and don`t have the energy or inclination for long writeups ....


congrats on the solid bowl start....not surprised...g.l.
 
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AR182

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1*under 61(130) boise/tcu---i went to a consensus site & it listed that 73% was picking the over. with that figure you would think that the total would move similar to last nights total. but it hasn't.

i also think that the defenses are being over looked in this game. i read where boise's defense yields 20.6 yards per point on the road & tcu's defense yields 26.5 yppt at home. both of these figures are excellent.

a small play on the under.


good luck
 

AR182

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lost my last 2 plays which brings my bowl record to:

2-2 +.45*

this sums up my year--- mediocre.


8.5*under 53(120)n. mex./ oregon st.---really like this play. when i looked at this play, i looked at how the offenses did vs. similar defenses.

new mexico faced 3 defenses that were statistically similar to oregon st ( allow 4.3 yppl ). byu, wash st, & sdst. combined to allow an average of 21.2 points & 4.4 yppl on defense. against these 3 teams n. mex. averaged 17 points & 4.4 yppl.

oregon st. also faced 3 teams that were statistically similar to n. mexico's defense(allow 4.6 yppl). wash. st., oregon, & usc combined to allow an average of 21.7 points & 4.6 yppl on defense. against these 3 teams osu scored an average of 26 points & 4.7 yppl on offense.

if i add the 17 pointsa that n. mex. scored + the 26 points that osu scored the obvious number is 43. this gives me 10 points to work with in accounting for the unexpected that tends to happen.

a trend that supports this play:

play under - neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP) after 7+ games.
ats record since 1992 is 30-8 or 78.9%

good luck
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
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well

well

8.5 stars?....whoa........i seldom(if not ever)just follow a play without agreeing with the opinion.....even guys that i think know their stuff and i respect......

i looked at the total and felt that with 2 solid run defenses and if new mexico can keep from getting burned through the air that the under has a shot....

seeing that you feel so strongly,i`m gonna ride along......it`s on me.......my decision...

8.5 stars......that`s a pretty strong stand you`re taking....i`m in...

g.l.
 

AR182

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gw,

i spent alot of time reading about this game & the under just popped out to me. it also fit into a system that i use that tells me that there is a high probability that the game will go under. but who knows? hopefully we will cash!!

boilermaker,

thanks for the well wishes.
merry x-mas to you & your family.

i wish everybody a happy, healthy, & prosperous holiday season!!
 
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ajoytoy

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gl AR!

thx for the email!....have a great Christmas and New Year!

initially liked the Under, but may have to throw down on it now with your excellent research and write-up!

toy:)
 

AR182

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gw & toy,

i hope you didn't lose alot of money on the under. i didn't watch the game but when i saw the final score i was totally shocked. it seems that i'm not as good at this as i used be.there were so many indicators for me that this was going to be a lower scoring game that i thought this was a real solid play. i would make this play everytime.
 
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