Boxing 11/23 - 11/24

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +20.05 units
2 units: 1-0 +2.0
1 unit: 7-1 +5.70
1/2 unit: 59-26 +4.60
Dogs: 59-79 +8.40
LT's: 1-17 -0.65



11/23

Cintron-Feliciano Under 6.5 -210...lay 1.55 to win .75 (loser)

Dog

Mayorga over Vargas +160...lay .30 to win .50 (winner)

Trejo over Pacquiao +210...lay .30 to win .65 (loser)


11/24

Arslan-Hill Over 11.5 -115...lay .30 to win .25 (winner)

Dogs

Baldomir-Luciano Over 9.5 +150...lay .20 to win .30 (winner)

Mendoza-Erdei Under 11.5 +185...lay .15 to win .30 (loser)


Lottery tickets

Mayorga-Vargas has a point deduction +500...lay .10 to win .50 (L)

Trejo-Pacquaio Draw +2000...lay .05 to win 1.0 (L)


Parlay

Karmazin over Garcia -465 (winner) / Mayweather over Holdman -245...(-140)...lay .55 to win .40


gl bl

 

[nj]

good bets.

im waiting on a good mayorga ko prop, maybe parlay the under bet. i cant imagine this going the distance, if it does it means vargas controlled the tempo and would probably get the dec.

i took hill/arslan over -116, if the fight were in the states, hill by pts would be worthwhile. in germany? forget about it.

 

[Zerwas]

Dog

Mendoza-Erdei Under 11.5 +185...lay .15 to win .30


gl bl

Is mendoza that bad!?

I mean I have never seen him and he hasnt been koed in quite some time?

I made a small play on over 9 at 44%....

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding


Cintron-Feliciano Under 6.5 -210...lay 1.55 to win .75

Dogs

Trejo over Pacquiao +210...lay .30 to win .65

Baldomir-Luciano Over 9.5 +150...lay .20 to win .30


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Is mendoza that bad!?

I mean I have never seen him and he hasnt been koed in quite some time?

I made a small play on over 9 at 44%....

First of all, its just a small value play, I don't back it with full confidence. Also there's a big difference between Under 11.5 and Over 9...a huge difference in this particular fight. My play is based on the fighting style of Mendoza, he's very aggressive and throws huge punches, regardless of what kind of shape he's in...he'll fade in the late rounds. I expect Zerdei to be there in the end when Mendoza runs out of gas, most likely in the last 3 rounds. The +185 just seemed too high, it has dropped a bit since


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Parlay

Karmazin over Garcia -465 / Mayweather over Holdman -245...(-140)...lay .55 to win .40


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Future

Earl over Kahn +650...lay .10 to win .65


Pending Parlays

Casamayor -270 (winner) / Mosley +20.5 points -325 (winner) / Mayweather -235...(+155)...lay .30 to win .45

Mosley +20.5 points -350 (winner) / Margarito -1200 (winner) / Mayweather -235...(even)...lay .30 to win .30


gl bl

 

[punchmaster]

.....

.....

Adding

Holdman
gl bl

:mj07:
Expect a little retribution from the Hatton Huggers. No pun intended. I thought +650 on Hatton decision was a little out of wack so I grabbed it before it dropped but I could easily try and pull a profit playing Mayweather side. Mayweather such an arrogant prick, I'd love to see him lose. Maybe De La Homo wants to fight Hatton next year and will help engineer a SD for Hatton like he did for Casamayor

 

[conanthecribber]

Hi Guys,

another week another dollar.

Medium - Hill over Arslan (50/50 straight and via PTS). Various odds. I got in early with the PTS at 7.6!!! I thought that line wouldnt hold. It's currently 4.3 at bwin. The Germans have been obviously not backing the local boy.

Medium - Kamarzin over Garcia @1.28 (I'd go larger but he's had a 10 month lay off)

Small - Mayorga PTS over Vargas @5. The way I feel, it's like putting your money on a roullette trable. There is nothing predictable about this fight.

Micro - Mayorga KO12 @ 50.0 . I dunno, I just thought, hell its the last round and Vargas is tired and maybe Mayorga has got more in the tank and goes balls to the wall. Just for fun.

Good luck to all.

conan

p.s Pakistan to beat India in the 1st test @4.5

 

[gardenweasel]

i read fightwriter and i was a bit surprised....he thinks alot more of terra garcia than i do...technically sound boxer?...i guess he throws his punches correctly,but,he`s an inside fighter...i have to think that boxer/punchers are gonna give him trouble...

i always considered "terra" garcia an immobile,come right at you guy....

last time we saw garcia,he was taking a beating from blown up welterweight jose rivera(he was very lucky to go the distance...rivera has subsequently stopped by legit jr middles david santos and travis simms).......he took a beating from rivera,imo....

he`ll come right to karmazin....and we saw what happened to a come forward guy who`s about 10 times more slick and talented than garcia(kassim ouma)...

.ouma`s right there in front of you...as garcia will be..

the few times i`ve seen him,karmazin looks like a natural counter puncher(maybe that`s why he has trouble with the spinKs`and keith holmes` of the world)...these guys are also counter punchers.....he`s a little taller than garcia..and has better hand speed...

imo,garcia wins by stoppage or nothing....he does have a puncher`s chance,i guess...i`m not even as sure that he`s the puncher that his rep and record indicate....

can karmazin break garcia down before the 10th?...or will he just jab and keep distance?....


i keep thinking about jose rivera having garcia down 5 times in their fight...then,getting stopped by 2 better technicians in santos and simms....

but,does karmazin have that killer instinct if he hurts garcia?...

karmazin`s losses...to castillejo in spain and spinks in missouri....aren`t an embarrassment...

and he just whacked obede toney in 4(it took bute 8 IN CANADA).....

i`m just not a garcia fan...he reminds me a little of yory boy campas(without campas` solid chin)....fights sort of "short armed"...

this fight pushed me over the edge as far as buying the ppv...there are enough ??? for me to make it interesting....

i hate betting unders...still,i have the urge to take a small shot at the under 9.5 at +135,but,i`m not as familiar with karmazin as i`d like to be....would be more a bet based on styles and against a possibly prematurely beaten down,easy to hit garcia...

conan....tony...zerwas....can any of the euro contingent give some opinion on karmazin?....

thanks..

 

[Zerwas]

@boxlox:
Thanks for the reply!
I'm a little anxious about the Erdei bet, I didnt play it big, but anyway there is a good chance that we can both win our bets.

@weasel
I consider myself a fairly good capper, but I regularly lose my under bets. (I bet on the under of Felician, so hopefully I can win this time.)

Karmazin should win this fight, and yes I think he has a good chance to win inside the distance, but given my bad streak I will only bet on Karmazin straight.

 

[punchmaster]

.can any of the euro contingent give some opinion on karmazin?....

thanks..

IMO, the +145 thats out there has created some value on the under. Karmazin is used to banging with super middles and up in sparring- I think he's sort of a badass. Spinks is such the opposite of Garcia. Small play. There's also some value in Baldo by decision at +172....

 

[gardenweasel]

very good,fellas...i guess it`s worth a small doggie bet...

hopefully...most likely...karmazin won`t have any trouble finding garcia....

and hopefully,he won`t let garcia`s k.o. percentage make him to cautious.....

 

[gardenweasel]

btw....i like that trejo+210 doggie......

2 solid journeyman fighters....and trejo takes a good whack.......

he`s been competitive with some good fighters...they both have.....

so,you take the 2-1 odds and hope for the best.....

i guess that feliciano got this gig by beating delvin rodriguez......other than that(i don`t count those contender fights),i think he`s in over his head....made to order for cintron...

he`s tough,but every advantage including height,power,ability and natural size goes to cintron....

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding


Mayorga-Vargas has a point deduction +500...lay .10 to win .50


Trejo-Pacquaio Draw +2000...lay .05 to win 1.0


gl bl

 

[tonymontana]

hey there guys

i took trejo at at 260. pretty even fight now i would take trejo inside.

fellicano at 2000 is worth a shot if fellicano survives the first couple of rounds he has a shot.
my man is playing him for real to win over 15000.
this is good enough for me to put down 50 bucks to win a 1000.
this guy has fought solid at 147 and cintron is a frontrunner if this fight goes a little longer maybe cintron crumbles. All i can say this line is out of line big time.

I have a little mayo in parlays but dont like it to much right now. My man likes Vargas and after the weigh in i believe thats probably the way to go.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Good to see you and weasel are on Trejo...gl this weekend


Btw, in another thread I mentioned having a personal play on the Vargas Under 9.5 -135...I decided to buy out of that play and put the "fight won't go distance -255" into a few multi sport parlays at + money, just small plays for fun. I think Vargas will try to box early and the stoppage could come late in the fight due to the heavy weights


gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

this ones tough....i prayed that margarito/mayorga would get made after mayorga beat forrest because i was never convinced about mayorga......i always thought mayorga was crap,honestly...

all things being even,vargas crushes mayorga in their prime...vargas is the naturally bigger guy..and the better fighter....

but,we`ve all seen the current vargas,,,stiff,no snap in his punches..he really looks alt older than he is...

that,and the fact that i read about all the physical problems he`s had(the weight gain,the back,thyroid issues,anemia)......

if this somehow goes 12,i predict the last 6 rounds will be as ugly as any ever seen in recent memory.....

box,where`d you find that +500 point deduction prop...i said before a d.q. wouldn`t shock me...

 

[gardenweasel]

lol...my computer is infected witha virus called "downloader ue"...has been for about a year and a half...

makes it very difficult to log in and navigate sites...

so,when i saw box`s point deduction +500 prop i shot back to 5 dimes to grab some(cause i believe a d.q. is a distinct possibility).....

well,it took me 10-15 minutes to get the fricking wager to take and by the time i got in it was +290......:00x12

i bought a new computer but haven`t hooked it up yet.....:00x25

 

[tonymontana]

dq is not automatically a point taken.

I thought about it too but did either one had a point taken away in a fight. I didnt remember that s why i pass.
But there is value in these exotic props-

Baldomir will waste that guy. this is at middleweight, but doesnt matter this both guys are welters.