Braves dbags live (HUUUGE)
- Thread starter Real_Vision
- Start date
It is absolutely intense the way I hammer some particular games live.
I didn’t have time to post everything - i played some pre-game stuff, and actually had O 7.5 in chisx / det . This is the second 9th inning grand slam of today thats cashed overs for me.
the over (i got 7, not 7.5 bought a run essentially) in chisx detroit was the last game i needed to win a 5-teamer at 17:1 or therebouts
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Plus +65x on the live braves dbags bets,
4-0, even the braves -1.5 at +715 when down 5-3 cashed with a 5x stake.
4-0, even the braves -1.5 at +715 when down 5-3 cashed with a 5x stake.
So I’m generally awful at baseball totals for both teams full game before the game starts. 50/50 at best, if I looked up just this season probably under .500.
but when I slice it into smaller sample sizes, my win % goes up dramatically.
1 single team total
2. First 3, 5, or 7 for both teams or single teams,
3. ML and not combined total but each team to score X runs yes or no
When i take it further and bet in game, my win % goes up another leap higher. This is where I find advantages or mis-pricings that I will go after hard.
It also takes into consideration my analysis of the game / side I like from pregame, and in most cases what I’m looking for is the winning team to be trailing and a game total that isn’t high enough to price in the comeback (that I believe is coming).
taking a step back, the braves are one of the best team on the run line when underdogs. They were 7-2 vs the run line as underdogs with an avg MOV of 1.6 (straight up in the ganes) AND +3.5 on average against said run line as underdogs.
so my options were pregame Atl +112 / Arz -129, or atl +1.5 at -165 or something. Seems mispriced but as home favs, arz was 10-8 vs the run line, avg MOV 1.4 — but actually -0.1 on avg vs the actual run line.
Also important, atl in series this year was 11-5-2 with and only has been swept once i think. Bottom line they win series, they’re coming off of a series loss to OAKLAND and playing the rubber game vs Arz sunday. The numbers tell me arz can win at home, but the ATL run line is a good play. Now I don’t like to take +1.5 unless I think that team is going to win SU. But of particular importance, whats in the back of my mind as the game goes on is that +3.5 vs the RL for atl as underdogs. While arz is -0.1. https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/trends/ats_trends/?sc=is_dog
So what i want is a situation where I’m going to be compensated for the +3.5 run line advantage atl brings in. As +1.5 dogs, I want to catch a window where i’m just relying on an average outcome but i have a lot of ways to take that position. Fairly conservative ones, at close to even money, and prices for that outcome that are way better than taking ATL +1.5 at -160 pregame.
so when i see arz go up 3-1 early, i get interested, and get more confident… see i didnt want to take the risk +1.5 against a team thats 10-8 as a home fav and avg MOV of 1.4. Once the dbags go up 3-1? Now we’re talking, but the prices still weren’t good enough. Atl ML was +175, and I passed. Sure enough, right after atl gets even at 3, its 5-3 the next half inning again, bot 4th.
but now we’re starting to get into the middle innings where time and score are not on your side, and the pricing I want if I’m going to get involved starts to emerge.
first example and i didnt post it here b/c it was small - ATL +2.5 at -120 bottom 4. Now i’ve got potentially 4-5 runs in my pocket but im getting a better price than the +1.5 -160 pregame.
then the game quieted down and the most critical element came into play - the total started to drop to a level where I could play the over (based on atl coming back to win , but actually still win the over even without atl winning. This game had already featured THREE innings with 2 or mors total runs scored 2 in the 2nd, 2 in the 3rd and 4 in the 4th. The O/U was 13.5 bottom 4, it dropped to 12.5 top 5, and then 11.5 when atl didnt score in the 5th and arz cane to vat. It’s 5-3, 8 total runs, with 3 high output innings, and now i only need 3.5 more in 4 innings to win? Plus I’m operating on the theory that ATL can flip the script and win by 2+? Well that would be 7-5, so the second i see a total where my outcome isn’t priced in, and even without atl winning, the game is high scoring enough to cover it? That’s when I get aggressive.
now having the base case laid out, all of my plays should make MORE sense at least. Both teams to get to 5 runs at even money? Well that doesnt even force me to take a side, and the side i see winning is the team not at 5 yet.. the losing teams already there though. Hit it hard!
Plays 1 and 2 should be clear now- over 11.5 16 units and both teams to get to 5 even money 12 units more.
then arz gets a bunt single and the braves go back to +2.5 and I see that atl -1.5 go to over +700, i’ve already made wagers that can pay off big without atl even needing to win, NOW lets take some risk and play my pocket aces - that atl can get +3.5 vs the +1.5 run line- or win by 2. And NOW i’m getting paid commensurate to the risk at 7 to 1.
so knowing all of this, play #4, adding on when the total drops to 10.5 isn’t a tough decision, its strengthening my position.
this is all just seeing atl +1.5 pregame, knowing thats a winner but an unacceptable price. When i saw my price(s) i was prepared to invest heavily. Only now i’m getting paid even if they dont win, better than -160, and stand to get a parlay style payout just on a 2 run win by atl, when they avg +3.5 better than the RL as dogs. Worth the risk at pregame ML? Yes, but not exciting.
if i was wrong, atl drops 2 out of 3 to OAK and ARZ in back to back series. I can live with being wrong because that happened. I’d bet against it every single time though.
I traded derivatives for a long time still do for my own portfolio, but that background requires knowledge of “the greeks” - Delta, Theta, Vega, and, Gamma. in english how volatile is this game / opportunity, how is the position priced and getting cheaper relative to time remaining, and how sensitive will my position be to changes in the score. As explained below, this is why the total is my weapon of choice to start with. My first total bet was over 11.5 in a 5-3 game with over 4 innings left. That is going to be VERY sensitive to changes in score, and wasn’t going to go much lower even if the score stayed the same for 1-2 innings, but i saw the delta or likelihood of change within the time frame, and vega / gamma mis priced relatively speaking.
Its all very nerdy and sounds like im running a trading desk at SAC capital in 2005 trading MBS and CDX while ive got a network of informants across the Fortune 1,000 lined up with leaky earnings results the day before the announcement.
I wish. But the point is there is a rhythm to these opportunities, this isnt a craps table to me, or even poker, its math and playing for a reasonable outcome at the most advantageous price. The books want the exact opposite.
