Top choices if fast track: Came Home and Momentum
Top choices for mud/slop: Evening Attire & Medaglio D'Oro
Sleepers who could win and pay over $20: Hawk Wing and Harlan's Holiday
Most likely to be overbet: War Emblem and Medaglia D'Oro
Horses who don't like Arlington: Milwaukee Brew & Macho Uno
Horses who will be on/pressing the lead: E Dubai, War Emblem, Medaglio D'oro
My choice for key BC Classic prep: Pacific Classic
CAME HOME--Finally won at 10 furlongs although arguably Momentum was the best horse in that race. Has speed to be out of trouble; but doesn't have to have lead.
DOLLAR BILL--Probably running to snag a non-threating 3rd. If the pace is very fast, he could do that. If he wins, it will be by default because all the pace setters/pressers wilted.
E DUBAI--Has won at 1 1/4 miles and has 4 fast track wins in 6 starts. Likely to face pace pressure
EVENING ATTIRE--Top choice for slop, mud or good track. He has run good races on fast but seems to move up in the "off"
HARLAN's HOLIDAY--May have been buried on a deep rail and was suprisingly close to the pace in the JC Gold Cup. Wouldn't be a total shocker.
HAWK WING--Great on grass but dam loved main track. If he transfers his turf form to dirt, he's a legit threat.
MACHO UNO--No excuse in dull race over the track
MEDAGLIA D'ORO--Definitely capable but think he'll be a little overbet. His huge win in the Jim Dandy was aided by a great rail bias. The slop didn't bother him in the Travers. May be the favorite but below 2-1 I'd look elsewhere.
MILWAUKEE BREW--Deep closer was beaten 13 lengths in lone race at AP last year. He's better now but he's likely to face traffic problems coming from so far back.
MOMENTUM--Ran a huge race in the Pacific Classic and probably should've won, if he didn't have to alter course. He disappointed at SA a couple weeks ago but has never run well there. Looks like a live longshot.
PERFECT DRIFT--Probably ambitiously placed. I didnt think his "trouble" in the Derby was severe. He did save ground throughout that race.
ROCK OF GIBRALTOR--first preference is the Mile, so he probably won't be in here. He's supposed to be Europe's best, or one of the top 2 or 3. On dirt? Its anyones guess. Probably overbet if he does run here.
VOLPONI--Think he was better last year. In tough
WAR EMBLEM--He is the only horse here who has won at Arlington and he is capable. He won the Preakness w/out being loose on the lead but since then he hasn't been impressive. The Haskell was basically a walkover vs no other early speed. If E Dubai and or Medaglia D'Oro scratch, his chances improve. If they don't he probably gets cooked on the front end.
Top choices for mud/slop: Evening Attire & Medaglio D'Oro
Sleepers who could win and pay over $20: Hawk Wing and Harlan's Holiday
Most likely to be overbet: War Emblem and Medaglia D'Oro
Horses who don't like Arlington: Milwaukee Brew & Macho Uno
Horses who will be on/pressing the lead: E Dubai, War Emblem, Medaglio D'oro
My choice for key BC Classic prep: Pacific Classic
CAME HOME--Finally won at 10 furlongs although arguably Momentum was the best horse in that race. Has speed to be out of trouble; but doesn't have to have lead.
DOLLAR BILL--Probably running to snag a non-threating 3rd. If the pace is very fast, he could do that. If he wins, it will be by default because all the pace setters/pressers wilted.
E DUBAI--Has won at 1 1/4 miles and has 4 fast track wins in 6 starts. Likely to face pace pressure
EVENING ATTIRE--Top choice for slop, mud or good track. He has run good races on fast but seems to move up in the "off"
HARLAN's HOLIDAY--May have been buried on a deep rail and was suprisingly close to the pace in the JC Gold Cup. Wouldn't be a total shocker.
HAWK WING--Great on grass but dam loved main track. If he transfers his turf form to dirt, he's a legit threat.
MACHO UNO--No excuse in dull race over the track
MEDAGLIA D'ORO--Definitely capable but think he'll be a little overbet. His huge win in the Jim Dandy was aided by a great rail bias. The slop didn't bother him in the Travers. May be the favorite but below 2-1 I'd look elsewhere.
MILWAUKEE BREW--Deep closer was beaten 13 lengths in lone race at AP last year. He's better now but he's likely to face traffic problems coming from so far back.
MOMENTUM--Ran a huge race in the Pacific Classic and probably should've won, if he didn't have to alter course. He disappointed at SA a couple weeks ago but has never run well there. Looks like a live longshot.
PERFECT DRIFT--Probably ambitiously placed. I didnt think his "trouble" in the Derby was severe. He did save ground throughout that race.
ROCK OF GIBRALTOR--first preference is the Mile, so he probably won't be in here. He's supposed to be Europe's best, or one of the top 2 or 3. On dirt? Its anyones guess. Probably overbet if he does run here.
VOLPONI--Think he was better last year. In tough
WAR EMBLEM--He is the only horse here who has won at Arlington and he is capable. He won the Preakness w/out being loose on the lead but since then he hasn't been impressive. The Haskell was basically a walkover vs no other early speed. If E Dubai and or Medaglia D'Oro scratch, his chances improve. If they don't he probably gets cooked on the front end.
