Breeders Cup Friday-Saturday

[airportis]

Friday Plays....

might add a few exotics later...

no strong opinion in the Marathon, dont usually cap races that distance so will just watch.



Juvenile Turf - Race 7 -


never know what you are going to get in the juvenile races because all of these horses are still improving. post position and rider matter a lot here with the short trip to the 1st turn. dont want to be caught wide. #5 will get a lot of support being from a familiar barn, and Chad Brown usually has his horses ready to roll for the big ones. definitely going to try and beat what should be the favorite here.

the Euro invaders look tough, but the thing about some of these Euro horses is, if they are closers, it is a different ball game here in the states. over in Europe they for the most part run in a straight line. it is something new to them coming around a turn and closing instead of progressively doing it in a straight line over a longer period of time.

I expect to see some decent pace here...at least for the 1st quarter miler. Johnny V on the outside with Bashart should hit the gas early to try and get to the lead and get a good position. If Bobbys Kitten wants to go early and is forwardly placed, these 2 could hook up, setting up a nice stalking position for the #4 Outstrip.

at 4/1, I would like to see what the odds are closer to post time. Hopefully they float up a bit making Outstrip an overlay.

The two horses I'd make plays on in this race are Outstrip and Wilshire Boulevard. A longshot that should go off at a huge price I'd consider is Got Shades. A jockey that knows his way around the track and a favorable post position....could end up with him getting a piece.

Top selections - #4, #9, and a longshot with #3.


$1 trifecta key 4,9 with 4,9,2,3,5


will also make a few WP or S bets on 4,9,3 depending on the odds at post times

 

[airportis]

Breeders Cup Dirt Mile - Race 8


Taking a stand against Verrazano here. He should be bet big time but I want no part of him. Being outside, he will have to flash some early speed to get up close to where he wants to and there seems to be a few horses in here that will want to get on the early lead. Pants On Fire hurts with the outside draw and is coming off a lifetime best effort, so I would think he regresses here. Goldenscents is a tough one to figure out. This distance seems to be in his wheel house, and he gets a bit of weight for being a 3 year old. Hate O'Neil though and he is as dirty as they come, so another short price I am not going to use on top.

Going to use the #2 here, Golden Ticket. 12/1 morning line odds sound good to me on a horse that should save some ground and get a favorable pace to run into.

Would have liked to see the also eligible, Easter Gift run here but he did not ship to California and will be a scratch.

The other horse I would consider here is Brujo de Olleros. Has been really firing on all cylinders since Mettee got to him and Team Valor usually has their wits about them when they splash out and buy a horse.


Top Selections - #2 and #4

 

[airportis]

Juvenile Fillies Turf - Race 9 -


Another race full of young horses where you can get a lot of surprises. And another race I'll be taking a stand against a shorter price all the way on the outside. The 9/2 2nd choice #14 is a complete toss out for me. If I am going to get beat by this one it is going to take a TREMENDOUS effort by overcoming that horrible post position. A lot of very good horses in this race that didnt draw favorable positions, which opens things up a bit in my opinion.

Top pick in here for me is without question the #2. Excellent trainer who would not be here if his horse did not have a big time chance. Lightly raced also gives this one a good shot to improve on its last effort. Hasn't run on anything over a soft going so will need to handle the Santa Anita turf, but am betting that thats the case. Also has had no problem winning some very big races without lasix.

A longshot I'll look at is Granny Mc's Kitten. Trainer should have him ready to go and this one will be the overlooked stable mate. Most of the money on the Kittens Joy runners will be on the #4, but ill take a shot at what should be a huge price with the #5.


Top Selection - #2 and #5

 

[airportis]

Distaff - Race 10


not much here. 6 horse small field filled with short prices. The short prices are obvious big time players but I will make a play on Close Hatches here, the #3. A big effort could have her beating any of the ones in here....will have to see good odds though. Won't play anything less than 5-1 in this race.


Top Selection - #3




Will have Saturdays races up later or tomorrow.


Good luck today :0008

 

[sharky17]

Like your opinions.

I really like Golden Ticket....I think he has been on the fringes with the big boys and knocking on the door. I've had him circled.

Have a good weekend.

:toast:

 

[Double Two]

Best of Luck w/your selections in today's Breeders Cup events airportis!!! :0008 My top choice is the #2 in the 8th Race. :yup

 

[airportis]

1 for 1 :toast:

nice 6-1 horse to kick off the BC weekend!

peanuts for the tri, only $71.90, but a $14 winner is very nice

 

[sharky17]

Nice call.

Golden Ticket opens at 9/2.

 

[bjfinste]

I was expecting a little more out of that tri with a 6-1 horse on top but still, nice win!

 

[Hamster]

:toast:

 

[airportis]

Nice call.

Golden Ticket opens at 9/2.

this scares me off him a bit.

maybe its the Rosario factor?

that is a big underlay.....liking Brujo de Olleros a bit more now....I think he gets a piece.

:0corn

 

[airportis]

impressive run by Goldenscents. very impressive. overcoming that post position as well and those fractions....wow. will tip my hat to him as I had no interest in playing that horse...nice to see my selections 2nd and 3rd though.

 

[airportis]

completely missed in the juvenile turf filly race but other than that, pretty solid day.

something to really take into consideration, Pletcher horses have not showed up at all. that may change tomorrow but I will certainly be looking to continue to "fade" him until he proves otherwise!

he only hit the board once today....had well bet horses in Verrazano, Princess of Sylmar, and Charming Kitten earlier in the day....I think he had 5 horses in today and only hit a show place with Authenticity, which wasnt his short price in the Distaff.

certainly something to take note of heading into Saturday.

 

[airportis]

Friday Recap



R7 - Outstrip.......$14.00 - $6.80 - $3.60
$1 Tri - $71.90


R8 - Golden Ticket.....$6.40 - $4.60
Brujo de Olleros.....$4.60


R9 - Out



R10 - Close Hatches.....$6.60 - $4.80








hopefully see some bigger prices on Saturday

 

[airportis]

Saturday




Juvenile Fillies - Race 4


Some really nice fillies in this race, but I am going to go against the class of the race and assume she doesnt fire her best effort today. Sweet Reason is the best 2 year old filly around, but I am going against her today for a few reasons. She has put up some major efforts....for a filly, let alone a 2 year old filly, that usually catches up with you and you have a regression. She also shares a trait with another horse in here that I like but am going against in the #1, they have not ran a 2 turn race yet. The #7, Untappable looks like a good filly as well but unfortunately she gets Rosie on board. While this is certainly a jockey youd like to have on your horse as an owner or trainer, it isnt really one youd like to have as a bettor because the public love her and bet her horses down a few ticks from where they really should be. Much like Calvin Borel. While Untappable is definitely the horse I fear most in here, I am going to try and beat her along with the 2 favorites.

I am going with a slight longshot in this one, the #2. Rosalind gets an inside post and should save some ground on what is going to figure to be a hot pace. She has also ran well without lasix and has handled 3 different surfaces in her 3 lifetime starts. Definitely going to need the track to play a little more evenly and not heavily speed favoring today but I think Rosalind is a very live longshot at the morning line 8/1 odds and hopefully get even a bit of an overlay.


Top Selection - #2

 

[airportis]

Filly & Mare Turf - Race 5


Tough race. Cant bring myself to play Dank at 9/5. Was looking at Romantica, but even she isnt a price I feel comfortable with. Romantica does have some sort of breeding though. Youd be hard pressed to find a better bred turf horse in the world. Sired by Galileo out of a Danehill mare....wow....not sure you could ask for a better breeding.

Tiz Flirtatious at 6-1 looks like a nice overlay...should have some pace to run into and this horse really fits Leparoux and his riding style....which is why theyve teamed up for 3 wins in 4 starts once he got on board. I think she is plenty good to get a piece, but at level weights itll take an improvement on last time outs effort to beat these.

Alterite looks like a great value play here at 17-1....and if it stays near those odds, this will be my play. She exploded after coming to the states and getting in the Chad Brown barn. She also gets a bit of weight from her elders in here which could prove pivotal. Velazquez is off this mount after being taken to hospital and Castellano gets on board.....I am a big Castellano fan especially on the turf.


This is a very competitive race and I can not play a short price.



Top Selection - #4

 

[airportis]

Filly & Mare Sprint - Race 6


Dance To Bristol is just a consistent winner but its the first time this one gets on a plane. Could see this one winning but going to try and beat her and the favorite, Groupie Doll.

Going with a longshot here, Summer Applause. Chad Brown has had his horses rolling and im going to see if the hot streak keeps up.

Also like the #4, Dance Card. This one came off the bench and ran 3rd to Dance to Bistrol and Cluster of Stars...the 2 best filly sprinters in the country. She has run very well without lasix and if Kiaran has her ready to go she is going to be a tough one to beat.


Top Selections - #7 and #4

 

[airportis]

Turf Sprint - Race 7

Some big prices that have real live shots in here. One of my longshots had Velazquez on board and now gets Rajiv Maragh.

Really like Tightend Touchdown and Spring to the Sky here. Big prices and should both have a chance. Not sure how much I like the change to Maragh, but I do like Castellano who is on Tightend Touchdown. Would be nice to see Servis get a BC paycheck as he is not well known outside of the PARX grounds.

Tread VERY lightly here.


Top Selections - #7 and #11

 

[airportis]

Juvenile - Race 8


This race should have an honest if not fast pace. Big field with a lot of horses wanting to get position into the 1st turn. Trip should play a big factor here and I am going to try and get a price with a ground saving trip.

I am not sold on the Baffert horses, so will go against him again. Pletcher has also shown me nothing this weekend so I am tossing his horses out as well.

#3 Mexikoma had a huge effort and was then bought by Team Valor. Mettee has been quite good getting his horses ready to roll and with a lot of time off, I think he has recovered from his huge effort which was also around 2 turns.

#11 Medal Count. Reaching here for a longshot again but I think it is a live one. Looking at the breeding and it screams turf, but there is a reason this guy is entered today. He is a very interesting longshot and should save ground and make his running late. When you see Dynaformer you typically think turf, but lets not forget who Barbaros sire was.

One thing I can say I absolutely hate about Medal Count is the jockey. Robby Albarado is absolutely awful. He has cost me countless bets with HORRENDOUS rides.


Top Selections - #3 and #11

 

[airportis]

in a rush but playing Real Solution, #11 in the Turf Classic