Broncos & Ravens

[RTL]

YTD: (13-8) = +7 units

Tampa Bay was favored by 4.5 at Baltimore two weeks ago. The Buccaneers won 25-0. Denver is currently favored by 7 tonight. Is Denver that much better than Tampa Bay? I know that circumstances have changed since the Tampa Bay game, but is Denver worthy of laying an extra 2.5 points on the road? The Ravens are coming off their bye week. The line seems a little strange to me, considering Griese and Gary are both banged up. Where is the value in tonight's line?

Good luck to everyone!

 

[Valuist]

But early in the season there are a number of soft lines. LV probably didn't want to have to lay too many w/TB on the road because 1)TB has been terrible the last 5-6 years in those scenarios, and 2)They may have underestimated just how bad Baltimore is. Balt was winning a Super Bowl a little more than a year and a half ago and that was still relatively fresh in the public's mind.

 

[pp]

Shanahan has to have his team ready to play he's in
a div. with two other undefeated teams if only to keep pace
Baltimore has no Quarterback look at Washington
you cant win without one.
I cant see Denver losing this game and most likely will cover
gl

 

[gardenweasel]

love my ravens

love my ravens

win or lose....but,this does not look like a good spot....ravens lost 7 of 11 starters off super bowl defense....very small defensive tackles(lost siragusa and sam adams and back-ups larry webster and lionel dalton-dalton with denver) are not able to jam the middle and free ray lewis to make plays...loss of jamie sharper at lb,rod woodson,duane starks and corey harris(one of the most under-rated players in the nfl) leaves the secondary starting basically 3 rookies vs rod smith,ed mccaffrey,ashley lelie and shannon sharpe...denver defense leads nfl vs the run and redman led offense has scored one offensive td in 4 pre-season and 2 reg season games...add to that sharpe`s familiarity with matt cavanaugh and billick,shanahan taking the pipe vs billick in the last several big games between the two......brad hoover and nick goings averaged over 5 yards per carry vs ravens...denver has one of the top "o" lines in the nfl...brandon stokely is hobbled leaving an already weak receiving corps thinner....no jermaine lewis to change momentum with a return..this is so one sided it scares me a little....it should stay close for a while just on monday night emotion but i don`t see it staying that way...that def backfield will breakdown at some point....denver has to much offensive balance.....but,san diego on deck....look ahead?...that scares me a little,but,monday night venue usually gooses the big time players....g.l.

 

[RTL]

Broncos -7.5 = 1 unit

Denver can't afford to overlook Baltimore tonight. The Broncos will play San Diego, Miami, New England and Kansas City after tonight's game. Shanahan will have his troops ready. Shanahan is 7-3 straight up against opposing teams coming off their bye-week. Also, if I remember correctly, road favorites between 7-10 points had the highest success rate in covering the spread last season in the NFL. Bottom line, the Ravens are too young to get the job done tonight against a veteran Denver team.

Good luck!

 

[GM]

Also, if I remember correctly, road favorites between 7-10 points had the highest success rate in covering the spread last season in the NFL.

No, that wouldn't be right.

Road Favorites:
Of exactly 7: 1-3 ATS in 2001, 13-22 ATS since 1996
Of 7? to 9?: 3-5 ATS in 2001, 16-22 ATS since 1996

All Favorites (home and road):
Of exactly 7: 5-6 ATS in '01, 40-39 ATS since 1996
Of 7? to 9?: 7-11 ATS in '01, 56-68 ATS since 1996

So, these 7+ point favorites are actually one of the worst performing bets historically.

 

[RTL]

GM,

Thanks for the reply. Obviously, I stand corrected. I don't know why I had that thought in my head. Having said that, I still like Denver tonight. Tampa Bay was laying 7 points at Cincy yesterday, and the Buccaneers covered easily because they played a bad team. The Broncos are also playing a bad team tonight. Baltimore might win 4 or 5 games this year, but they won't come against quality teams such as Denver. The Broncos will capitalize on Redman's inexperience as a quarterback.

Good luck!

 

[RTL]

Broncos -8.5 = 1 unit

Vegas is increasing the spread because it wants to attract Baltimore money. I'm putting another unit on Denver. The Broncos will win this game by at least 10 points. Here is my prediction:

Denver 27
Baltimore 10

Good luck!

 

[GM]

Well, I can't dispute most of the other points raised here....namely 1) Denver is the better team; 2) Redman sucks; 3) This Ravens team does not even remotely resemble the SB champions of only 20 months ago. However, it's hard for me to take a favorite in this range because for whatever reason, they just tend to fall short time and time again. It's not like it's impossible for a 7? point road fav to cover (like TB did yesterday), but these matchups always look like one-sided slaughters, or the line wouldn't be where it is. And about 60% of the time, the dog covers.

I just can't bet this game, but I'll wish you luck.

 

[RTL]

Will try to get my two units back with these plays:

Ravens +7.5 = 1 unit
Under 17.5 = 1 unit

Good luck!