Bucs-Panthers: Key Matchups

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Bucs CB Ronde Barber vs. Panthers WR Steve Smith

The Bucs have to like this matchup. Barber has had a rather difficult season but he's coming off two very good games and seems to be stepping up his play at just the right time. Smith is a speedy wideout who can beat press coverages and fly past defenders even out of his breaks, but Barber will look to keep Smith in front of him and make his play on the ball in the air. With help over the top from his safeties and underneath from the linebackers, Barber will have a chance to make some plays against Smith that could turn the game in the Bucs' favor.

Bucs RB Warrick Dunn vs. Panthers MLB Jon Beason


Beason is a very athletic linebacker, but he doesn't do a good job of reading the quarterback or recognizing passing routes. He reacts well but if the Bucs attack him by throwing to Dunn off a play-action fake he can be victimized. Dunn will see a lot of Beason in the run game, too, and that's an interesting matchup. Neither player is real big. Both are very quick and agile, but Dunn's ability to make himself small as he cuts through the line and elude tacklers should give him an edge.


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The Bucs Will Win If... The Panthers Will Win If...




The Bucs Will Win If...
They can get to Jake Delhomme. The Bucs have done a good job of rushing the passer the past few weeks and they need to get to Delhomme. He'll hurry his throws and force a few into coverage when he's under duress, so the Bucs have to make the pocket an uncomfortable place for him. It's mostly up to the defensive line to do that, but a lot of this falls on the secondary as well. They have to do a good job in coverage, because that will force Delhomme into checkdowns that will reduce the time he needs to get rid of the ball cleanly.

The Panthers Will Win If...

They ever take a touchdown or better lead. The Bucs have done a great job of pulling themselves out of sizeable holes this year but it's a different kind of opponent they're facing in this one. The Panthers have a running game that's strong enough to maintain control of the ball for long periods and score points. If Carolina gets into a position where they can run the ball to take time off the clock they'll force the Bucs into a shootout approach that they don't want to get into and don't necessarily excel at.
 

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3 Things to Watch

RUN ESTABLISHED, PANTHERS VERSION

Since the Panthers were held to 40 yards on 20 attempts rushing in the teams' first meeting, Carolina has averaged 135.1 yards per game. Since then, DeAngelo Williams has established himself as one of the league's elite runners.

RUN ESTABLISHED, BUCCANEERS VERSION

It appeared Warrick Dunn didn't have an adequate partner after Earnest Graham injured his ankle in mid-November. Cadillac Williams is back from his injury, though, taking pressure off Dunn and quarterback Jeff Garcia, who ran for 42 yards last week against the Saints.

(VERY) HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE

Not only are the Panthers 6-0 at Bank of America Stadium, but they're not too different from their three rivals in the NFC South. Teams in the division are 20-2 at home this season.
 

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UPDATED NFC playoff picture entering tonight's game



Sunday's results really couldn't have gone any better for the Panthers -- or Tampa Bay -- entering tonight's huge Monday Night Football game.

One of these teams will have four losses by about 11:30 p.m. Monday, but that team's chances to be the No.5 seed in the playoffs (rather than fall out of them entirely) got better Sunday due to practically every NFC wild-card contender losing. Dallas lost to Pittsburgh, Atlanta lost to New Orleans and Washington lost to Baltimore.

PLUS, the New York Giants got upset by Philly. That means that the WINNER tonight has a shot at the No.1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs (with Carolina likely needing to upset the Giants on the road Dec.21 to make that happen).

All of that will give some cushion to tonight's loser, which will still be a game ahead in the wild-card race with three to go. Here are the current NFL standings. Check charts out below to see how it will look Tuesday morning if the Panthers WIN and if they LOSE tonight:

NFC PLAYOFF STANDINGS WITH 3 WEEKS TO GO -- IF THE PANTHERS WIN

1. NY Giants 11-2
2. CAROLINA 10-3 (and with a chance for homefield advantage if Panthers could beat the Giants Dec.21)
3. Minnesota 8-5
4. Arizona 8-5 (has clinched division; could move to No.3 with win over Vikings next Sunday)
5. TAMPA BAY 9-4
6. DALLAS (6-4 conference record slightly better than Atlanta's 5-4, so 8-5 Falcons would be out at the moment)

IF THE PANTHERS LOSE TONIGHT

1. NY Giants 11-2
2. Tampa Bay 10-3
3. Minnesota 8-5
4. Arizona 8-5
5. CAROLINA 9-4 (Panthers probably wouldn't have any home playoff games in this scenario)
6. DALLAS 8-5

So, obviously, this game has gotten even a little more important due to the results of the past 24 hours.
 
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