last night i bought a point which made me a winner i like to see everyones thinking about buying points
buying points??
- Thread starter beachbum
- Start date
like it for key numbers like ...3..7..10...and i like buying hooks there is nothing worse than losing a bet by a hook....like i did last night...i had the jets over 20.5 points...cooz
My initial reaction is that it's bad. You're laying 120 to win 100 and in most situations it doesn't come into play.
Let's just say you blindly and stupidly bet all dogs. If you bought the .5 in every game this week with -120, you'd have gone 10-5-1 for a profit of +400 (+1000 - 600). Without the hook, at -110, you'd have gone 9-6-1 for a profit of +240 (900 - 660), a difference of $160. That's with two games coming into play (CHI becomes a push, and the Jets push becomes a win).
But, last week, you'd have gone 11-5 with or without it. A profit of +550 without buying, a profit of $500 with buying, or a $50 difference.
Week 11, you'd have gone 7-9 with our without it, for a loss of -290 without, or -380 with. A difference of $110.
So, this week you'd gain $160, but last week and the week before you'd have cost yourself $160.
What if you like the faves, though? This week, you would have gone 6-9-1 without buying it, or 7-9 with buying it. That's a difference of losing 390 vs. 380. You made a whole $10. Last week, however, you would have gone 5-11 either way, losing $820 vs. $710, a difference of a WHOLE UNIT. That's pretty big.
I believe if you continued a similar analysis through the season, you'd see it is wise NOT to buy it.
Another way to look at it is: the book wouldn't offer it if it was a good bet.
Or: If it's a good bet, then you should be able to SELL a half point. Turn that 3.5 into 3 and get it at even money.
This analysis ignores the fact that you might buy your points "wisely". That is, you can identify the situations where its more likely to come into play. If you're that good, though, you shouldn't have to worry about it.
If you were able to just buy the half point in the GB and OAK games this week, sure...you'd be way ahead. But if bought the hook in every thing you bet over the last three weeks, or over the course of the season, I think you'd be way behind.
[note: I looked at this pretty quickly so if I missed a game or two, my bad]
Let's just say you blindly and stupidly bet all dogs. If you bought the .5 in every game this week with -120, you'd have gone 10-5-1 for a profit of +400 (+1000 - 600). Without the hook, at -110, you'd have gone 9-6-1 for a profit of +240 (900 - 660), a difference of $160. That's with two games coming into play (CHI becomes a push, and the Jets push becomes a win).
But, last week, you'd have gone 11-5 with or without it. A profit of +550 without buying, a profit of $500 with buying, or a $50 difference.
Week 11, you'd have gone 7-9 with our without it, for a loss of -290 without, or -380 with. A difference of $110.
So, this week you'd gain $160, but last week and the week before you'd have cost yourself $160.
What if you like the faves, though? This week, you would have gone 6-9-1 without buying it, or 7-9 with buying it. That's a difference of losing 390 vs. 380. You made a whole $10. Last week, however, you would have gone 5-11 either way, losing $820 vs. $710, a difference of a WHOLE UNIT. That's pretty big.
I believe if you continued a similar analysis through the season, you'd see it is wise NOT to buy it.
Another way to look at it is: the book wouldn't offer it if it was a good bet.
Or: If it's a good bet, then you should be able to SELL a half point. Turn that 3.5 into 3 and get it at even money.
This analysis ignores the fact that you might buy your points "wisely". That is, you can identify the situations where its more likely to come into play. If you're that good, though, you shouldn't have to worry about it.
If you were able to just buy the half point in the GB and OAK games this week, sure...you'd be way ahead. But if bought the hook in every thing you bet over the last three weeks, or over the course of the season, I think you'd be way behind.
[note: I looked at this pretty quickly so if I missed a game or two, my bad]
Buying points is a must especially in the pros. The first few weeks of the season I don't worry about it as much verses later in the season. I also think buying points is prudent when there are limited games on TV with those lines being very sharp.
Shrimp -
I agree, you should be able to sell points as well as buy them. I have heard there is a book in England that will allow you to sell a half point for .05c. Of course, it costs .10c to buy a half (that's fair huh?). In certain situations I would gladly sell a full point or more. Say, when I am getting 5?, I'd sell it down to 4? if I could, since so few games land on the 5.
Buying points blindly is not a good strategy. In some situations I will still buy points though. The extra juice really adds up and will not be offset by the number of times it will save you. To say it's a "must" to buy half and full points is just not true. You can't be laying -120 or -130 on every game and expect to be profitable.
Also consider, turning a loss into a push is more valuable than turning a push into a win. Because turning a loss into a push saves you juice as well as a lost bet (1.1 unit improvement), but turning a push into a win only nets you a 1 unit improvement. But both will cost you the same extra juice if you lose and it doesn't come into play.
I agree, you should be able to sell points as well as buy them. I have heard there is a book in England that will allow you to sell a half point for .05c. Of course, it costs .10c to buy a half (that's fair huh?). In certain situations I would gladly sell a full point or more. Say, when I am getting 5?, I'd sell it down to 4? if I could, since so few games land on the 5.
Buying points blindly is not a good strategy. In some situations I will still buy points though. The extra juice really adds up and will not be offset by the number of times it will save you. To say it's a "must" to buy half and full points is just not true. You can't be laying -120 or -130 on every game and expect to be profitable.
Also consider, turning a loss into a push is more valuable than turning a push into a win. Because turning a loss into a push saves you juice as well as a lost bet (1.1 unit improvement), but turning a push into a win only nets you a 1 unit improvement. But both will cost you the same extra juice if you lose and it doesn't come into play.
I don't have specific numbers, but I would be almost positive that buying across 6 to 5 or 5.5 is a losing proposition in the long run.
6-pt. Teaser Results Week 13
6-pt. Teaser Results Week 13
Six-point teasers on dogs this week were 14-1 (if you had Dallas at +1 or pick and got Hou at +11.5/12)
The only loss was the disaster in KC, but who would ever play Ariz anyways .... just thought I would chime in, GL All
6-pt. Teaser Results Week 13
Six-point teasers on dogs this week were 14-1 (if you had Dallas at +1 or pick and got Hou at +11.5/12)
The only loss was the disaster in KC, but who would ever play Ariz anyways .... just thought I would chime in, GL All
- Feb 26, 2001
- 13,593
- 164
- 63
Only buy onto or off 3 in the NFL if you can get the extra 1/2 point for 10 cents. I believe that is the only time it makes sense in the long run and the only time I mess with buying points.
Otherwise if I lose I lose but I dont have to mess with having to hit a higher % than 52.38.
Trampled
Otherwise if I lose I lose but I dont have to mess with having to hit a higher % than 52.38.
Trampled
I went back over this season (quickly, but I think accurately), and was actually surprised to discover that buying the .5 isn't as bad as I thought it would be. If my numbers are off, I'm glad to hear about any corrections. Usually the lines in my spreadsheet are what come out of WSEX on Wednesday.
First of all, I found 6 pushes, and 9 games that fell within a half point of the number. 192 games have been played so far.
Consider 3 people who are playing $110 per game.
Let's say Average Joe is 93-93-6 and so is $930 in the hole paying -110 vig. If he bought all his games with a .5, he'd, for starters, turn the pushes into wins and be 99-93, but with -120 vig, he'd be $1260 in the hole. However, you need to turn some of those losses (let's say 5 of 9) into pushes and that gets him to 99-88-5, or $660 in the hole. Hmmm.
Now, look at a winner. He's 100-86-6 and $540 to the good on the year. Turn the pushes into wins, and he's 106-86, or $280 to the good. Turn 5 losses into pushes, though, and he's 106-81-5, or $880 to the good. Hmmmm. Hmmmm.
Now, look at a loser. Let's say he's 86-100-6. He's down $2400 on the season. Turn the pushes into wins and he's 92-100, but $2800 in the hole. Turn 5 losses into pushes and now he's $2200 in the hole.
Conclusion: Well, surprisingly, it really doesn't seem as bad as I thought buying that half point and actually looks beneficial in some cases. You need to hit about 52.4% to break even with normal vig, and 54.5% to break even laying -120. The .5 certainly seems to be figuring into enough games this season to make it worth it. If you bought it off key number, only, these results might even improve. I'd be interested if anyone had statistics on how often the game fell within a .5 point of the number over many seasons, not just this one.
These numbers support what GM said about losses into pushes being much more valuable than pushes into wins, which is a good point.
Final note: With the 9 games that fell within a .5 point of the spread, I only gave half of them to the bettor. Why? Consider, say, CHI @ GB this week. All the GB bettors would have bought the half point down, making no difference, while the CHI bettors would have bet it up, turning the loss into the push. I assume our average bettor would be about 50/50 on these. Maybe he had Minny against NE last week (no diff) and CHI this week (loss -> push).
The other thing this tells me is how important it is to shop for lines. For instance, I had raiders -6.5 last night. If I still had money at another book, of course I would have gone with 6 if I could.
First of all, I found 6 pushes, and 9 games that fell within a half point of the number. 192 games have been played so far.
Consider 3 people who are playing $110 per game.
Let's say Average Joe is 93-93-6 and so is $930 in the hole paying -110 vig. If he bought all his games with a .5, he'd, for starters, turn the pushes into wins and be 99-93, but with -120 vig, he'd be $1260 in the hole. However, you need to turn some of those losses (let's say 5 of 9) into pushes and that gets him to 99-88-5, or $660 in the hole. Hmmm.
Now, look at a winner. He's 100-86-6 and $540 to the good on the year. Turn the pushes into wins, and he's 106-86, or $280 to the good. Turn 5 losses into pushes, though, and he's 106-81-5, or $880 to the good. Hmmmm. Hmmmm.
Now, look at a loser. Let's say he's 86-100-6. He's down $2400 on the season. Turn the pushes into wins and he's 92-100, but $2800 in the hole. Turn 5 losses into pushes and now he's $2200 in the hole.
Conclusion: Well, surprisingly, it really doesn't seem as bad as I thought buying that half point and actually looks beneficial in some cases. You need to hit about 52.4% to break even with normal vig, and 54.5% to break even laying -120. The .5 certainly seems to be figuring into enough games this season to make it worth it. If you bought it off key number, only, these results might even improve. I'd be interested if anyone had statistics on how often the game fell within a .5 point of the number over many seasons, not just this one.
These numbers support what GM said about losses into pushes being much more valuable than pushes into wins, which is a good point.
Final note: With the 9 games that fell within a .5 point of the spread, I only gave half of them to the bettor. Why? Consider, say, CHI @ GB this week. All the GB bettors would have bought the half point down, making no difference, while the CHI bettors would have bet it up, turning the loss into the push. I assume our average bettor would be about 50/50 on these. Maybe he had Minny against NE last week (no diff) and CHI this week (loss -> push).
The other thing this tells me is how important it is to shop for lines. For instance, I had raiders -6.5 last night. If I still had money at another book, of course I would have gone with 6 if I could.
Shrimp -
Thanks for doing all the number crunching on this. But I think maybe there is more to think about; you allude to this in your final paragraph. You say you use Wednesday's WSEX numbers...which is fine, you've got to use something, and be consistent with it, no matter whether it's an opening or a closing number, or a different book. But compared to the line WSEX (or any book for that matter) offers, don't you think in most instances if you had multiple sportsbooks you would be able to find a line that is a half-point higher AND a half-point lower than that, over the course of the week? Even at WSEX alone, almost every line will move a half point between Wednesday and Sunday. So with decent line-shopping (as you mention), you can probably get most of these numbers without paying the extra 10c. Not all cases of course, but I'd think at least 80% of the time you can get a half point in your direction without paying the extra juice.
Thanks for doing all the number crunching on this. But I think maybe there is more to think about; you allude to this in your final paragraph. You say you use Wednesday's WSEX numbers...which is fine, you've got to use something, and be consistent with it, no matter whether it's an opening or a closing number, or a different book. But compared to the line WSEX (or any book for that matter) offers, don't you think in most instances if you had multiple sportsbooks you would be able to find a line that is a half-point higher AND a half-point lower than that, over the course of the week? Even at WSEX alone, almost every line will move a half point between Wednesday and Sunday. So with decent line-shopping (as you mention), you can probably get most of these numbers without paying the extra 10c. Not all cases of course, but I'd think at least 80% of the time you can get a half point in your direction without paying the extra juice.
