there are only two ways it doesn't. 1) the Tribe suddenly figures out Moyer and puts up 4-5 runs or 2) Finley gets the snot knocked out of him. I don't see 1) happening, but I can certainly see 2).
I may hedge the Tribe with the under. Reasoning being, Tribe won't hit Moyer and maybe 2) above doesn't happen. If they lose it should stay under. If Tribe wins, they would have to get to Moyer and I think Seattle will get to Finley, giving us an over, but nice odds on the Tribe win.