A miracle has occured, and I've actually turned myself around this month. First 2 weeks of June were great then BAM!
Same chit is happening this month ... maybe I should take a break after the ASgame, aye?...oie?...
Anyway, the following look good from where I lean:
Best
------
Brewers -130 (Sheets over Dempster)
--I liked this one (a lot) even before last night's Reds joke-a-thon; Sheets has really been coming on and he's done well vs Reds in past; in '03, he HAS given up 24 HR in 136.2 IP (about 1 every 5.5 IP at home - slightly better on road), but he has only allowed 2 in his past 4 starts (27 IP - obviously, 1 every 13.5), and he has only allowed none in his past 2 home starts (8 IP vs Twins then 7 vs Rockies); his era, whip, bb-k, ie all numbers, are better at home NOT just this year, but for his career; Dempster is a BeantownJim-special
; Reds bats are aching right now ... dying for the AS holiday; neither club has a strong BP, but Reds should have less options here AND need more, with Sheets likely to outlast the Canuck
Rockies +100 (Stark over Nomo)
--Nomo has had some serious troubles @Coors while Stark has performed well there; I don't think the Dodgers can continue their recent offensive surge, and I believe that the (healthy) Rockies can score off of anyone @Coors; Rocks BP better lately, but, of course, LA's is still tops
Twins +125 (Santana over Ortiz)
--Twins can score, they have just done so on a very inconsistent basis this year; Santana can dominate; both have good pens (Angels ranked slightly higher by my call); Ortiz just has the rare good game; 'capped this one at 56% (Twins), so +125 gives me PV+11 ... worth a shot here
Rest
------
Giants -130 (Schmidt over Batista)
--I really LOVED Batista going against the Pads on Wednesday - a game Capauno ended up starting - but I look for the Giants to bounce back from their mini-sweep (by Rocks) here with a strong effort; Schmidt is phenomenal this year ... especially important is his HR vs (just 8 in 125 IP), as D'Backs have done a lot of their damage - especially @Bank One - via the long ball; several of the opposing starters that they have recently pummelled have been in HR trouble all season; Giants BP is improved from early season, but D'Backs still have an edge there; Batista is pretty hot himself, but Giants have hit him before; Giants travel while D'Backs stay home is factored in, making this a smaller play for me
Rangers +100 (Dickey over Hernandez)
--Rangers are hot lately, and the small pitching edge I gave to KC here (despite KC's chit BP) is overcome by Rangers offensive advantage and home field; KC travels from California to Texas, while Rangers enjoy the comforts of their continued homestand (5-1 so far); 'capped this at 58%, so PV+8 on the +100
Avoided temptaion on
----------------------------
Cubs--too expensive
Marlins@Expos under 8.5
Phillies--too expensive
Astros--too expensive
Cards-WAY too expensive
Tigers--have a shot here, with Maroth tossing hot, Burkett being Burkett, Tigers w/BP advantage, current hot-streak, Bosox not AS sharp vs lefties; my 44% gives me PV+6 at +165, but I haven't pulled the trigger (yet) - the value on a less than 50% proposition is unappealing here; under (9) is also tempting (maybe a good hedge to play both -- Maroth & BP should be able to keep score respectable, at least, and Tigers may not find Burkett, or any starter, poundable)
Jays-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
A's -1.5 -115 -- may try this if I hit good early; Hudson is on fire and he owns the O's; O's bats probably show less clout in this ballpark
M's -1.5 -120 -- may try this (late) also (RL's rarely move too much anywho); M's staying home while TBay travelling in from Cal. -- M's should regroup here; Moyer owns D'Rays and has been hot; Gonzalez has been cooling off (can't find the K-zone lately)
Totals are few and far between for me right now. I'm trying to incorporate them into my system, and it looks semi-promising, but my confidence in these plays has kept me to 6-8 per week.
Good Chance on Your Ventures
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Out here on the perimeter there are no stars
Out here we is stoned ... immaculate
(J.M.-The Doors-LA Woman-The W.A.S.P. (Texas Radio and the Big Beat))
Same chit is happening this month ... maybe I should take a break after the ASgame, aye?...oie?...
Anyway, the following look good from where I lean:
Best
------
Brewers -130 (Sheets over Dempster)
--I liked this one (a lot) even before last night's Reds joke-a-thon; Sheets has really been coming on and he's done well vs Reds in past; in '03, he HAS given up 24 HR in 136.2 IP (about 1 every 5.5 IP at home - slightly better on road), but he has only allowed 2 in his past 4 starts (27 IP - obviously, 1 every 13.5), and he has only allowed none in his past 2 home starts (8 IP vs Twins then 7 vs Rockies); his era, whip, bb-k, ie all numbers, are better at home NOT just this year, but for his career; Dempster is a BeantownJim-special
; Reds bats are aching right now ... dying for the AS holiday; neither club has a strong BP, but Reds should have less options here AND need more, with Sheets likely to outlast the CanuckRockies +100 (Stark over Nomo)
--Nomo has had some serious troubles @Coors while Stark has performed well there; I don't think the Dodgers can continue their recent offensive surge, and I believe that the (healthy) Rockies can score off of anyone @Coors; Rocks BP better lately, but, of course, LA's is still tops
Twins +125 (Santana over Ortiz)
--Twins can score, they have just done so on a very inconsistent basis this year; Santana can dominate; both have good pens (Angels ranked slightly higher by my call); Ortiz just has the rare good game; 'capped this one at 56% (Twins), so +125 gives me PV+11 ... worth a shot here
Rest
------
Giants -130 (Schmidt over Batista)
--I really LOVED Batista going against the Pads on Wednesday - a game Capauno ended up starting - but I look for the Giants to bounce back from their mini-sweep (by Rocks) here with a strong effort; Schmidt is phenomenal this year ... especially important is his HR vs (just 8 in 125 IP), as D'Backs have done a lot of their damage - especially @Bank One - via the long ball; several of the opposing starters that they have recently pummelled have been in HR trouble all season; Giants BP is improved from early season, but D'Backs still have an edge there; Batista is pretty hot himself, but Giants have hit him before; Giants travel while D'Backs stay home is factored in, making this a smaller play for me
Rangers +100 (Dickey over Hernandez)
--Rangers are hot lately, and the small pitching edge I gave to KC here (despite KC's chit BP) is overcome by Rangers offensive advantage and home field; KC travels from California to Texas, while Rangers enjoy the comforts of their continued homestand (5-1 so far); 'capped this at 58%, so PV+8 on the +100
Avoided temptaion on
----------------------------
Cubs--too expensive
Marlins@Expos under 8.5
Phillies--too expensive
Astros--too expensive
Cards-WAY too expensive
Tigers--have a shot here, with Maroth tossing hot, Burkett being Burkett, Tigers w/BP advantage, current hot-streak, Bosox not AS sharp vs lefties; my 44% gives me PV+6 at +165, but I haven't pulled the trigger (yet) - the value on a less than 50% proposition is unappealing here; under (9) is also tempting (maybe a good hedge to play both -- Maroth & BP should be able to keep score respectable, at least, and Tigers may not find Burkett, or any starter, poundable)
Jays-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
A's -1.5 -115 -- may try this if I hit good early; Hudson is on fire and he owns the O's; O's bats probably show less clout in this ballpark
M's -1.5 -120 -- may try this (late) also (RL's rarely move too much anywho); M's staying home while TBay travelling in from Cal. -- M's should regroup here; Moyer owns D'Rays and has been hot; Gonzalez has been cooling off (can't find the K-zone lately)
Totals are few and far between for me right now. I'm trying to incorporate them into my system, and it looks semi-promising, but my confidence in these plays has kept me to 6-8 per week.
Good Chance on Your Ventures
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Out here on the perimeter there are no stars
Out here we is stoned ... immaculate
(J.M.-The Doors-LA Woman-The W.A.S.P. (Texas Radio and the Big Beat))
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